Wednesday, March 31, 2021

"Donald Trump will be back in office in August!"

 

MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell's latest rant is too bonkers for even Steve Bannon to handle

MyPillow CEO and fervent President Donald Trump supporter Mike Lindell declared on Friday that Trump will be re-installed as president come August during a podcast appearance on Steve Bannon's "WarRoom Pandemic" program. The far-fetched remark caught wind and was quickly mocked on Twitter midday on Monday. 

"What I'm talking about, Steve [Bannon], is what I've been doing since Jan. 9th," the pillow maven said with authority. "All the evidence I have - everything is going to go before the Supreme Court, and the election of 2020 is going bye-bye. It was an attack by other countries, communism coming in," he continued. "I don't know what they're going to do with that after they pull it down."

"Hold on a sec, hold on," Bannon tried to interrupt before Lindell shouted out: "Donald Trump will be back in office in August!"

https://www.salon.com/2021/03/29/mypillow-ceo-mike-lindells-latest-rant-is-too-bonkers-for-even-steve-bannon-to-handle/

https://twitter.com/i/status/1376546217270910981



Tuesday, March 30, 2021

Conservative Opposition Strategy to HR1: Winning is the Only Moral Imperative

Charles Koch, not trying to influence anyone or anything?
Hardly


The leaked GOP anti-voting rights conference call
A leaked conference call provides a precious and rare glimpse at how expert conservative propagandists see issues in politics and tell conservatives to talk about them. This call was never intended for the public to hear. From the call, it is crystal clear that what the public wants is of no concern other than something to be flipped to support what the fascist GOP and its billionaire dark money donors want. The only concern is winning and how to do that in the face of opposed majority public opinion. The call was about public support for HR1, the bill the democratic party wants to pass to protect voting rights. Conservative dark money donors, especially Charles Koch, hate HR1 because they hate political opposition. They really and truly are fascists.

The New Yorker posted the 10-minute call here. It is well worth 10 minutes to get a feel for just how ice cold and self-centered these people are. They are intelligent, ruthless and sophisticated. They are acutely aware of the crucial importance of lies, refusal to step into losing frames (discussed here before) and spinning to lead people to false conclusions about HR1. One can reasonably believe that this cynical, anti-democratic reasoning applies to all other contested issues for most or nearly all radical right conservatives.

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For people who don't want to listen to the call. A couple of points merit mention:

1. The propagandists' poll research indicates that one of the most effective tactics for weakening public support, including majority conservative voter support, for HR1 is to claim that now is not the time because there are more urgent things to deal with. 

2. The host of the call, Kyle McKenzie, the research director for the Koch-funded radical right advocacy group Stand Together (maybe better named Divide and Conquer), pointed out to the conservatives and Republican congressional staffers on the call that the bottom line was unfavorable. “When presented with a very neutral description [of HR1], people were generally supportive. .... The most worrisome part is that conservatives were actually as supportive as the general public was when they read the neutral description.” McKenzie warned the audience that “there’s a large, very large, chunk of conservatives who are supportive of these types of efforts.” Clearly, neutral descriptions of HR1 are not going to be forthcoming from the fascist GOP or its propaganda outlets.

3. HR1’s opponents would have to rely on Senate Republicans to use “under-the-dome-type strategies,” which legislative maneuvers under Congress’s roof, such as the filibuster to stop the bill. The GOP research McKenzie relied indicates that turning public opinion against HR1 would be “incredibly difficult.” He warned that the worst thing conservatives could do would be to try to “engage with the other side [against the argument that the legislation] stops billionaires from buying elections.” That is an example of a politician or advocate refusing to step into a losing frame. The framing of billionaires buying elections generated the most support by people for HR1 because it was the argument that was the “most convincing, and it riled them up the most.”

4. McKenzie said that the Koch-founded group had invested substantial money “to see if we could find any message that would activate and persuade conservatives on this issue.” The research indicated that “an A.O.C. message we tested,” claiming that the bill would help Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez achieve her goal of holding “people in the Trump Administration accountable” by identifying big donors helped undermine conservative support for HR1 somewhat. The research indicated that attaching the phrase “cancel culture” to the bill, by portraying it as silencing conservative voices, was not effective in undermining support for HR1. 

This call shows how money can buy sophisticated research to identify what spin (partisan motivated reasoning), lies and calculated silences in the face of loser frames (~lies of omission?) are best to win support for what the big donors want despite contrary public opinion and despite what is good for democracy or the public interest. 

The morality clearly reflected in this leaked conference call is basically the same as mainstream business morality, or immorality. Specifically, there is no morality other than winning, wealth and power. For most corporations, the public interest, democracy and most everything else are not particularly important considerations, maybe unless people strike back.[2]   


Footnotes:
1. Koch periodically claims he does not want to be involved in politics. He has claimed he is not looking for more profit from political influence. Those are blatant lies. Koch is one of the most influential conservative influencers in America today, probably the most influential. Koch is a stone-cold pathological liar, just like the ex-president. Last November, Fortune magazine wrote this
“Boy, did we screw up!,” wrote Koch, now 85, in his new book, Believe in People: Bottom-Up Solutions for a Top-Down World. “What a mess!” 

Koch and his brother were also largely involved in shaping the country’s response to climate change. Through Americans for Prosperity, they got over 400 members of Congress to sign a pledge to vote against climate change legislation that does not include equivalent tax cuts. In California, they were influential in rolling back emission regulations, and between 1997 and 2018 they spent $145,555,197 financing nearly 100 groups that attacked climate change science.
Note that. The Kochs spent over $145 million between 1997 and 2018 to oppose environmental regulations. It is fair to say that Charles Koch is an enemy of the people and the public interest.

As Black Lives Matter protesters filled the streets last summer, many of the country’s largest corporations expressed solidarity and pledged support for racial justice. But now, with lawmakers around the country advancing restrictive voting rights bills that would have a disproportionate impact on Black voters, corporate America has gone quiet.

Last week, as Georgia Republicans rushed to pass a sweeping law restricting voter access, Atlanta’s biggest corporations, including Delta, Coca-Cola and Home Depot, declined to weigh in, offering only broad support for voting rights. The muted response — coming from companies that last year promised to support social justice — infuriated activists, who are now calling for boycotts.

Offering vague broad support for matters of social conscience, e.g., voting rights, is how businesses weasel out of moral values other than profit and power, a point that has been discussed here before.

The Data on Mass Shootings

Mass shootings are back in the news, but they never really went anywhere. In fact, last year saw a major uptick in mass shootings, clocking in at 611 total incidents. 47 of those had 3 or more deaths.

There is a lot of data around mass shootings, but often enough discussions of them do not include the relevant data, instead banking on emotion, argument over cherry picked races, genders, types of guns, etc. I hope this serves as a bit of a primer for what I am sad to say will probably be many conversations about articles in the future.

To start off with, I’d like to define parameters. I’m going to only use data from several sources when I do comparisons and analysis. That doesn’t mean there isn’t an argument to be made for other comparisons; in fact, if you want to provide it, that can only be helpful for future discussions. Next, sources vary, so I will do my best to use only sources with direct possibilities to check, such as ones who link articles, databases, etc, or are the direct articles and databases themselves. Lastly, I will spend some time at the end debunking myths; I imagine this will be the source for a lot of debate below, but I’m going to make you wade through all the data first ðŸ˜‰

Sources being used:
https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/past-tolls
https://github.com/StanfordGeospatialCenter/MSA
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/12/mass-shootings-mother-jones-full-data/
https://massshootingtracker.org/data/
https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/strictest-gun-laws-by-state

Mass Shootings General Data:

Mass shootings in 2019: 417
Total Dead: 465
Incidents with 3 or more dead: 54

Mass shootings in 2020: 611
Total Dead: 513
Incidents with 3 or more dead: 47

Mass Shooting State Details:

2019:

StateRank (Total Incidents)Rank (Fatalities)IncidentsFatalitiesInjuriesFatality / IncidentInjury / IncidentPopulation% Population% Mass ShootingsGun HomicidesGun Homicide Rate / 1M
California124965491.331.0039,512,22312.04%11.75%1594.02
Illinois2341281820.684.4412,671,8213.86%9.83%1048.21
Texas3130731422.434.7328,995,8818.83%7.19%2257.76
Louisiana4526201060.774.084,648,7941.42%6.24%9019.36
Maryland5132112850.574.056,045,6801.84%5.04%6811.25
Georgia6101916740.843.8910,617,4233.23%4.56%928.67
Pennsylvania7111913840.684.4212,801,9893.90%4.56%836.48
Missouri861820601.113.336,137,4281.87%4.32%7712.55
Florida971520541.333.6021,477,7376.54%3.60%1697.87
Ohio1081420611.434.3611,689,1003.56%3.36%1018.64
Alabama1191217471.423.924,903,1851.49%2.88%8116.52
New Jersey12141112471.094.278,882,1902.71%2.64%323.60
North Carolina13121113401.183.6410,488,0843.20%2.64%777.34
Indiana1423106490.604.906,732,2192.05%2.40%476.98
South Carolina15151010421.004.205,148,7141.57%2.40%7815.15
Virginia1641021412.104.108,535,5192.60%2.40%495.74
Michigan171698350.893.899,986,8573.04%2.16%565.61
New York182097430.784.7819,453,5615.93%2.16%452.31
DC192974280.574.00705,7490.22%1.68%2028.34
Tennessee203073320.434.576,829,1742.08%1.68%8412.30
Arizona212167261.174.337,278,7172.22%1.44%415.63
Mississippi221768211.333.502,976,1490.91%1.44%4314.45
Arkansas233153200.604.003,017,8040.92%1.20%247.95
Kentucky242456181.203.604,467,6731.36%1.20%306.71
Massachusetts252257171.403.406,892,5032.10%1.20%131.89
New Mexico261858181.603.602,096,8290.64%1.20%2813.35
Colorado273342200.505.005,758,7361.75%0.96%254.34
Kansas282545161.254.002,913,3140.89%0.96%258.58
Oklahoma292645121.253.003,956,9711.21%0.96%328.09
Washington301948122.003.007,614,8932.32%0.96%314.07
Connecticut313531120.334.003,565,2871.09%0.72%133.65
Iowa323233111.003.673,155,0700.96%0.72%103.17
Nevada333631120.334.003,080,1560.94%0.72%227.14
Wisconsin342735101.673.335,822,4341.77%0.72%294.98
Delaware353820100.005.00973,7640.30%0.48%1010.27
Minnesota363721120.506.005,639,6321.72%0.48%152.66
Montana37282542.502.001,068,7780.33%0.48%98.42
Nebraska38391040.004.001,934,4080.59%0.24%94.65
Oregon39401050.005.004,217,7371.28%0.24%112.61
Wyoming40341222.002.00578,7590.18%0.24%23.46
West Virginia41NANANANANANA1,792,1470.55%NA137.25
Alaska41NANANANANANA731,5450.22%NA1013.67
Hawaii41NANANANANANA1,415,8720.43%NA107.06
Utah41NANANANANANA3,205,9580.98%NA72.18
Idaho41NANANANANANA1,787,0650.54%NA63.36
Maine41NANANANANANA1,344,2120.41%NA42.98
New Hampshire41NANANANANANA1,359,7110.41%NA32.21
Rhode Island41NANANANANANA1,059,3610.32%NA32.83
South Dakota41NANANANANANA884,6590.27%NA33.39
Vermont41NANANANANANA623,9890.19%NA23.21
North Dakota42NANANANANANA762,0620.23%NA00.00
TOTAL99941746515631.123.7532823952322206.76

2020:

StateRank (Total Incidents)Rank (Fatalities)IncidentsFatalitiesInjuriesFatality / IncidentInjury / IncidentPopulation% Population% Mass ShootingsGun HomicidesGun Homicide Rate / 1M
Illinois1169423010.614.3612,671,8213.86%11.29%1058.29
California2239371530.953.9239,512,22312.04%6.38%2095.29
New York31038201750.534.6119,453,5615.93%6.22%442.26
Florida4434261330.763.9121,477,7376.54%5.56%1255.82
Pennsylvania51434161380.474.0612,801,9893.90%5.56%876.80
Texas6334371241.093.6528,995,8818.83%5.56%2267.79
Louisiana7927211130.784.194,648,7941.42%4.42%8418.07
Ohio8825221110.884.4411,689,1003.56%4.09%857.27
Missouri962225961.144.366,137,4281.87%3.60%8213.36
South Carolina1072224981.094.455,148,7141.57%3.60%458.74
Michigan11112019720.953.609,986,8573.04%3.27%848.41
North Carolina1252026801.304.0010,488,0843.20%3.27%837.91
Maryland13161911780.584.116,045,6801.84%3.11%548.93
Tennessee1421199850.474.476,829,1742.08%3.11%9013.18
Georgia15131718731.064.2910,617,4233.23%2.78%989.23
Mississippi16121719701.124.122,976,1490.91%2.78%4013.44
Arkansas17191310480.773.693,017,8040.92%2.13%3310.94
New Jersey18171211510.924.258,882,1902.71%1.96%242.70
Alabama19151116371.453.364,903,1851.49%1.80%5611.42
Colorado2025116520.554.735,758,7361.75%1.80%203.47
Virginia2133113460.274.188,535,5192.60%1.80%546.33
Kentucky2226106440.604.404,467,6731.36%1.64%5211.64
Wisconsin23181011421.104.205,822,4341.77%1.64%315.32
DC242785580.637.25705,7490.22%1.31%1622.67
Massachusetts252885330.634.136,892,5032.10%1.31%111.60
Connecticut262377271.003.863,565,2871.09%1.15%143.93
Indiana272279231.293.296,732,2192.05%1.15%7210.69
Minnesota283961340.175.675,639,6321.72%0.98%223.90
Washington293652250.405.007,614,8932.32%0.82%162.10
Arizona303144161.004.007,278,7172.22%0.65%446.05
Iowa312945161.254.003,155,0700.96%0.65%72.22
Nevada322447121.753.003,080,1560.94%0.65%227.14
Alaska33303581.672.67731,5450.22%0.49%56.83
Delaware343433111.003.67973,7640.30%0.49%1313.35
New Mexico354031120.334.002,096,8290.64%0.49%188.58
West Virginia362031073.332.331,792,1470.55%0.49%2815.62
Kansas37442090.004.502,913,3140.89%0.33%175.84
Nebraska383722101.005.001,934,4080.59%0.33%52.58
Oklahoma39412170.503.503,956,9711.21%0.33%164.04
Oregon40422170.503.504,217,7371.28%0.33%204.74
Idaho41381232.003.001,787,0650.54%0.16%73.92
Maine42351313.001.001,344,2120.41%0.16%10.74
South Dakota43431131.003.00884,6590.27%0.16%44.52
Utah44321414.001.003,205,9580.98%0.16%113.43
Hawaii4545000NANA1,415,8720.43%NA21.41
Montana4545000NANA1,068,7780.33%NA98.42
New Hampshire4545000NANA1,359,7110.41%NA21.47
Rhode Island4545000NANA1,059,3610.32%NA43.78
Wyoming4545000NANA578,7590.18%NA11.73
North Dakota4646000NANA762,0620.23%NA00.00
Vermont4646000NANA623,9890.19%NA00.00
TOTAL99961151325430.844.1632823952321986.70

Mass Shooting Demographics

Average Age of Mass Shooter: 34
Age Range Mass Shooter: 11 – 66 (5% under 18)
Percent showing clear prior indications of violence: 50.4%
Incidents where weapon was legally obtained: 69.7%
Incidents wherein weapon was limited to handguns: 10%
Most Common Guns: Glock 17, AR-15
Perpetrators by race: White (55.46%), Black (19.65%), Latino (8.4%), Asian (6.72%)
Perpetrators by biological sex: Male (97.5%), Female (2.5%)
Event vs Spree Ratio: 84% / 16%

Mass Shooting Claims:

  1. Mass shootings occur in states with the most gun ownership
  2. Mass shootings drop with more restrictive gun laws
  3. Mass shootings are disproportionately perpetrated by white men
  4. Mass shootings correlate to the state gun homicide rate
  5. Mass shootings are proportional to the population
  6. Mass shootings are often done by those with mental illnesses
  1. Mostly, no. Out of the top 5 states for gun ownership, none rank even in the top 15 for mass shooting incidents. Lower gun ownership does show some impacts, with two of the lowest 5 having no mass shootings. However, New York, ranked 3 in mass shootings, has the 3rd lowest ownership of guns, thus becoming an outlier for this. Possible explanations can be that gun ownership reporting is lax, and that 30% of guns used in incidents are obtained illegally, but more study would have to be done to see if this explains the outlier in New York. Either way, the claim that lower gun ownership = lower incidents has some support, but higher gun ownership = higher incidents does not.

  2. Again, the data here is a mixed bag. California, rated most restrictive, has the 2nd highest mass shooting incident rate. New Hampshire, with the 2nd most restrictive laws, has the least mass shooting incident rate. The rest of the top 5 range around. Conversely, there doesn’t seem to be any pattern at all to lowered gun restrictions impacting mass shooting incidents; the range is similar, albeit not so obvious as with CA and NH. This claim too seems to be a myth.

  3. As far as biological sex goes, yes, mass shooters are overwhelmingly likely to be men. As far as race goes, there are more perpetrators who are white or black, and less that are latino and Asian, than would be expected based on demographics. The difference isn’t much though, so claiming that being white is a good indicator is not very true. Male = yes, white = no.

  4. Both Louisiana and Missouri fall into the top 5 in gun homicides and top 10 in mass shootings. Conversely, all the lowest gun homicide states appear on the bottom of the incident list. So while it is not a 1:1 relationship, this is somewhat correlated. Interestingly though, the top 5 mass shooting rate states fall pretty much average in other gun homicides. I’d say this is mostly a myth on the extremes, but shows some statistical tendency (which is to be expected, since mass shootings are a part of total homicide statistics).

  5. The top 7 populated states directly link to the top 7 mass shooting incident states, with one exception. Louisiana has only 1.42% of the population but 4.42% of the mass shootings. Interestingly, when you look at the RATE of shootings, a different picture emerges. While CA has 12% of the population, it only has 6.4% of the mass shootings, so it’s share is far below what it should be. This holds true for Texas as well, and to a lesser extent Arizona and Washington. On the flip side, Illinois has 3.86% of the population but 11.29% of all mass shootings, similar to Louisiana and South Carolina, and to a lesser extent Mississippi, Missouri and Pennsylvania. So while nominally the claim is true, as a rate it certainly is not, with several states showing exception.

  6. Not really. Less than 30% of perpetrators of mass shootings had any indications of mental illness, and fewer still were diagnosed (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4318286/). Mostly it’s triggering events that put stress on them, activating their fears. This is why misinformation and conspiracy theories are so dangerous; they tend to be the basis for mass shooting actions.

Summary:

There is a lot to go over when we discuss gun violence in general. Too much to cover in one OP. So I hope this limited data dump of mass shooting information helps to keep the conversations factual and meaningful.

Please ask questions and pose other claims you’d like to see discussed below.