Analysis of rocket fire and hospital explosion

The NYT published a detailed analysis of what might have happened at the hospital in Gaza. The NYT concludes (full article not behind paywall) that both the competing Palestinian and Israeli versions of events are possible:

The footage has become a widely cited piece of evidence as Israeli and American officials have made the case that an errant Palestinian rocket malfunctioned in the sky, fell to the ground and caused a deadly explosion at Al-Ahli Arab hospital in Gaza City.

But a detailed visual analysis by The New York Times concludes that the video clip — taken from an Al Jazeera television camera livestreaming on the night of Oct. 17 — shows something else. The missile seen in the video is most likely not what caused the explosion at the hospital. It actually detonated in the sky roughly two miles away, The Times found, and is an unrelated aspect of the fighting that unfolded over the Israeli-Gaza border that night.

The Times’s finding does not answer what actually did cause the Al-Ahli Arab hospital blast, or who is responsible. The contention by Israeli and American intelligence agencies that a failed Palestinian rocket launch is to blame remains plausible. But the Times analysis does cast doubt on one of the most-publicized pieces of evidence that Israeli officials have used to make their case and complicates the straightforward narrative they have put forth.

The footage also suggests that Israeli bombardment was taking place and that two explosions near the hospital can be seen within two minutes of it being struck. Maj. Nir Dinar, an Israeli military spokesman, told The Times that military forces were not striking “within a range that endangered the hospital,” but declined to say how far away the nearest strike was.

The death toll, initially put at 500 by Hamas and then lowered to 471, is believed by Western intelligence agencies to be considerably lower — but no number has been verified. The hospital itself was not directly struck; whatever caused the explosion actually hit the hospital courtyard, where people had gathered for safety, and a handful of parked cars.

Moreover, the crater left from the impact was relatively small, a fact that Israel has cited in arguing that none of its munitions caused the blast, and could be consistent with a number of different munitions. Hamas has not produced a remnant of an Israeli munition or any physical evidence to back up its claim that Israel is responsible.

Asked about The Times’s findings, a spokesman for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said The Times and American intelligence agencies had different interpretations of the video.

Israel has fired more than 8,000 munitions into Gaza, in what has become a brutal assault, and had even hit the Al-Ahli Arab hospital with an illumination artillery shell three days earlier, according to video evidence and the hospital’s official Facebook page.

Numerous media outlets have shown the video footage and several have cited it as evidence that a Palestinian rocket hit the hospital.

But The Times concluded that the missile in the video was never near the hospital. It was launched from Israel, not Gaza, and appears to have exploded above the Israeli-Gaza border, at least two miles away from the hospital.

To trace the object in the sky back to Israeli territory, The Times synchronized the Al Jazeera footage with five other videos filmed at the same time, including footage from an Israeli television station, Channel 12, and a CCTV camera in Tel Aviv. These different videos provided a view of the missile from north, south, east and west. Using satellite imagery to triangulate the launch point in those videos, The Times determined that the projectile was fired toward Gaza from near the Israeli town of Nahal Oz shortly before the deadly hospital blast. The findings match the conclusion reached by some online researchers.  

In addition, the videos show that the projectile in the Al Jazeera footage was launched after the barrage of Palestinian rockets Israeli officials assessed was responsible for the hospital explosion.

History bit: Abraham Lincoln's pragmatism & compromise

History doesn't repeat exactly because it can't, but one can see innate human traits causing recurring similar events arising from similar circumstances and reasons. 

A recent Throughline broadcast on NPR, The Contradictions of Abraham Lincoln, discussed how Lincoln dealt with the low priority native American Indian issue while trying to save the Union from dissolution over the critically high priority slavery issue. This is discussed at ~24:00-27:50 of the broadcast.

The comments that Cheyenne Indian chief Lean Bear made to Lincoln (26:36-27:10), and how he died (27:05-27:17) sound a lot like the hopeless situation in the intractable Palestine-Israel conflict. We all know how it ended for the American Indians. At ~30:05-31:25 the broadcast noted that Lincoln said he wanted peace with the Indians but a father (Lincoln himself) could not always control what his children (White settlers) wanted to do. What the children wanted to do, and did, was settle on Indian land and push the Indians out. Lincoln sacrificed American Indians to save the Union.

If history is going to rhyme here, it looks a lot like about the same ending for the Palestinians is imminent. 

 

Throughline describes the broadcast like this: 

In 1855, Abraham Lincoln wrote a letter to his best friend, Joshua Speed. Speed was from a wealthy, slave-owning Kentucky family; Lincoln believed slavery was wrong. You are mistaken about this, Lincoln wrote to Speed. But, differ we must."

One way for Lincoln to have dealt with his best friend, I suppose, would be to say you're a horrible person, you're morally wrong, and I shun you," says NPR's Steve Inskeep. "Lincoln did not take that approach, which I think might be a little controversial today."

You might know Steve primarily for hosting NPR's Morning Edition. He also writes histories, and his newest book, "Differ We Must: How Lincoln Succeeded in a Divided America," takes a long hard look at Lincoln the politician: the man who went out of his way to build political consensus, even with people whose views he considered noxious. It's a case for why we should collaborate, and yes, compromise with people across the aisle – not because it's nice or the right thing to do, but because it makes our government work.

News bits: Drug company spending patterns; Global warming update; Etc.

A WaPo article from 2015 commented on how drug companies spend their money to make more money:

Prescription drugs are a massive market: Americans spent $329.2 billion on prescription drugs in 2013. That works out to about $1,000 per person in the U.S., as John Oliver pointed out in his show on Sunday night. Oliver also mentioned that nine out of 10 big pharmaceutical companies spend more on marketing than on research.

 

A 2017 NYT article commented about research showing that drug companies’ heavy reliance on stock buybacks hurt corporate performance over time:

Under fire for skyrocketing drug prices, pharmaceutical companies often offer this response: The high costs of their products are justified because the proceeds generate money for crucial research on new cures and treatments. It’s a compelling argument, but only partly true. As a revealing new academic study shows, big pharmaceutical companies have spent more on share buybacks and dividends in a recent 10-year period than they did on research and development.

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A Nature paper, Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century, reports an analysis that projects the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will inevitably collapse, causing a ~5 meter increase is sea level. That is ~16.4 ft. The researchers' data and analysis indicate that it is probably too late to prevent the collapse, no matter what governments actually manage to do about carbon dioxide emissions.

Qs: How much might that sea level rise cost us? $15 trillion? How much will that cost Exxon-Mobil and other pro-pollution, anti-global warming regulation businesses? Not nearly enough.  

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Israel war: Truthout reports:

The Israeli military has launched one of its most violent attacks on the Gaza Strip since its latest bombing campaign began two weeks ago, further devastating the occupied territory as its overwhelmed healthcare system and humanitarian services teeter on the brink of collapse.

Over just the past 24 hours, Israeli airstrikes have killed more than 400 people in Gaza, bringing the enclave’s total death toll since October 7 to more than 4,500. Israeli bombs reportedly hit Gaza’s largest refugee camp on Sunday, killing dozens.

Gaza’s Interior Ministry said Israel also struck “residential apartments in the town of Khan Younis and the Nuseirat refugee camp, both of which are south of the evacuation line,” The Associated Press reported.

But according to The New York Times, the Biden administration is “not making a demand of Israel and still supports the ground invasion.”

On Sunday, U.S. President Joe Biden joined the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom in issuing a joint statement reiterating their “support for Israel and its right to defend itself” and calling for “adherence to international humanitarian law,” which Israel has been accused of violating repeatedly with its indiscriminate airstrikes and blockade.

The Western leaders’ joint statement said they are “committed to continue close diplomatic coordination, including with key partners in the region, to prevent the conflict from spreading, preserve stability in the Middle East, and work toward a political solution and durable peace,” but they did not call for a cease-fire.

So, Israel bombs places that Palestinians were told would be safe. Israel withholds humanitarian aid, including drinking water. Both are war crimes under International Humanitarian Law. The US seems to be complicit. We don't even ask politely for a cease-fire, at least not in public. Instead the US and other nations feebly call for adherence to international humanitarian law while Israel ignores it. 

A reasonable estimate? If Hamas murdered 1,200 Israelis, Israel is probably going for a Palestinian body count of at least 12,000 to satisfy its lust for revenge. One can only wonder what the ratio of non-combatant civilians to Hamas fighters is in the Palestinian body count, maybe 10:1?

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From the Babbling Dictator Files: Trump has gone fully insane:

He says he was never indicted: “We did nothing wrong,” Trump said. “This is all Biden’s stuff … I was never indicted. You practically never heard the word.”

The stable genius thinks deep thoughts: Trump also remarked that “U.S.” and “us” are spelled the same and noted that he’d “just picked that up.” “Has anyone ever thought of that before?” he asked the crowd. “Couple of days, I’m reading, and it said ‘us.’ and I said, you know, when you think about it, us equals U.S. Now if we say something genius, they will never say it.”

Health news bits: Drug industry fights drug price negotiation; Drug industry fights low-cost drugs

A WaPo opinion discusses intense industry opposition to negotiating drug prices for Medicare:

In recent months, drug manufacturers and their allies have filed 10 lawsuits attacking one of the Inflation Reduction Act’s core health policy achievements: its plan for Medicare to negotiate drug prices. Applying to a select number of especially profitable drugs that have been on the market for at least nine or 13 years, negotiation is intended to arrive at a fair price — at least 25 percent less than the manufacturer’s price — based on the drug’s proven clinical benefits. Manufacturers set prices without meaningful constraint, and the Inflation Reduction Act’s negotiation, the first round of which will begin next year, is predicted to save Medicare $100 billion by 2031. Now, the pharmaceutical industry is attempting to achieve through the courts what it could not through the legislative process — maintaining unreasonably high brand-name drug prices at the expense of the American public.

At their core, the complaints argue that giving Medicare the power to negotiate infringes the rights of pharmaceutical manufacturers to sell prescription drugs at any price they set. Their arguments rely on the untenable premise that for-profit companies have a constitutionally protected right to receive taxpayer dollars. Even more alarmingly, they assert that the unmatched profitability of the pharmaceutical industry is itself a public good that should be judicially guarded at the expense of patients and taxpayers. Courts and the public must reject these claims.  

First, the manufacturers argue that the plan violates the takings clause of the Fifth Amendment, which prohibits the government from taking private property without just compensation. Manufacturers may have a right to own and sell their drugs. However, they do not have a right to any particular level of Medicare reimbursement. Courts have agreed that private health-care entities can’t set their own payment rates, or expect to participate in voluntary programs such as Medicare without conditions.  

Second, manufacturers claim a violation of the Fifth Amendment due process clause, which prohibits the deprivation of liberty or property without due process of law. Courts have recognized due process rights in the context of certain public benefits, such as social security for those with disabilities. But Medicare is not a benefit program for drug manufacturers. Rather, Medicare’s intended beneficiaries are the American people, many of whom cannot afford the cost of drugs at the rates manufacturers have set.

Once again, the thinking and morals of American plutocrats is quite clear. They don't care about us or social well-being. They care about themselves and profit. The audacity of arguing that the unmatched profitability of the pharmaceutical industry is itself a public good is a lie on the scale of the authoritarian radical right's colossal stolen 2020 election lie. 

One can see the plutocratic, government-hating USSC siding with the drug industry on this one.

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Scimex, a science news source for Australia and New Zealand writes:

Why low-cost ketamine is still inaccessible to many with severe depression

Patients with treatment-resistant depression are missing out on potentially life-changing treatment with ketamine because systemic barriers in the public health system have made it unaffordable.

The researchers drew attention to the fact that it is now more than 20 years since the first indications that generic ketamine was effective, but public funding to support research and patient access has been slow, uncoordinated and underfunded. They also say there have been insufficient commercial incentives to conduct the research and development of generic ketamine, nor any schemes promoting public-private partnerships.

There is now a stark disparity in the accessibility and cost of ketamine-based depression treatments. The patented, intranasal s-enantiomeric ketamine formulation, Spravato, is priced at around $500 to $900 per dose, whereas generic ketamine stands at about $5 to 20 per dose. This high cost has led to Spravato being rejected for public reimbursement three times and thus it remains largely inaccessible for Australian patients.

This narrative is not unique to ketamine, as the article foresees a similar fate for upcoming psychedelic-assisted psychotherapy treatments, which are on the verge of entering the mental health treatment arena. The article suggests that without systemic interventions, the cycle of underutilizing low-cost effective solutions is set to continue, leaving patients unable to access treatments while threatening to blow out health care costs.

US prices for ketamine range from ~$200 to ~$12,000 depending on what the drug is being used for, e.g., pain, depression, anesthesia, etc. 

In the UK, where there are drug price controls based on cost-benefit analysis, England's influential cost watchdogs rejected J&J's ketamine depression drug Spravato (nasal ketamine spray). The US does not rely on cost-benefit analyses like the European Union and the UK do for drug pricing. The reason for that is obvious - the drug industry has corrupted the US government.

Once again, the thinking and morals of plutocrats is clear. They care only about themselves and profit.