Sunday, August 11, 2019

Cognitive Science: Conspiracy Theory Belief & Teleology Bias



A conspiracy theory

Teleology: the explanation of phenomena by the purpose they serve rather than by postulated causes; a reason or explanation for something in function of its end, purpose, or goal. For example, teleological, hands are made (by God) for grasping things, vs non-teleological, evolution caused hands to evolve to grasp things. A teleological explanation includes a final cause or end goal to explain how some system or thing came into being. Teleological thinking is as aspect of thinking related to belief in creationism. It is also known as the argument from design, which argues for the God's existence or, for an intelligent creator. Teleological thinking is a powerful cognitive bias for people who tend to apply this form of thinking to the real world and it has influenced religious thinking for millennia.

A team of European researchers recently published evidence that people who tend to accept conspiracy theories often employ teleological thinking as a basis for belief in conspiracies. It is important to note that the evidence amounts to a correlation, not an always-present cause and effect relationship. In other words, the evidence is that believing in final causes (teleological thinking) correlates with conspiratorial thinking.

In their article, the researchers write: “Teleological thinking — the attribution of purpose and a final cause to natural events and entities — has long been identified as a cognitive hindrance to the acceptance of evolution, yet its association to beliefs other than creationism has not been investigated. Here, we show that conspiracism — the proneness to explain socio-historical events in terms of secret and malevolent conspiracies — is also associated to a teleological bias. Across three correlational studies (N > 2000), we found robust evidence of a teleological link between conspiracism and creationism, which was partly independent from religion, politics, age, education, agency detection, analytical thinking and perception of randomness. As a resilient ‘default’ component of early cognition, teleological thinking is thus associated with creationist as well as conspiracist beliefs, which both entail the distant and hidden involvement of a purposeful and final cause to explain complex worldly events.”

In an article misleadingly entitled, ‘Scientists discover the reason people believe in conspiracy theories’, one mainstream media source discussed this research. Referring to the research, the article comments: “They found that conspiracy theorists are more likely to think ‘everything happens for a reason’ and things are ‘meant to be’, an approach they share with another group often considered extreme in their beliefs: creationists.

We find a previously unnoticed common thread between believing in creationism and believing in conspiracy theories,” said Dr Sebastian Dieguez of the University of Fribourg, one of the researchers behind the study.

‘Although very different at first glance, both these belief systems are associated with a single and powerful cognitive bias named teleological thinking, which entails the perception of final causes and overriding purpose in naturally occurring events and entities.’”

In other comments on their data, the researchers observe: “Although teleological thinking has long been banned from scientific reasoning, it persists in childhood cognition, as well as in adult intuitions and beliefs. . . . . the ‘everything happens for a reason’ or ‘it was meant to be’ intuition at the heart of teleological thinking not only remains an obstacle to the acceptance of evolutionary theory, but could also be a more general gateway to the acceptance of antiscientific views and conspiracy theories.”

Prior research had shown other cognitive characteristics of people who tend to believe in conspiracy theories. For example, individuals who are intolerant of uncertainty and seek cognitive closure share a trait called the need for cognitive closure. Evidence indicates that that trait seems foster, or at least correlate with, conspiracy beliefs about events that have no clear official explanation.

This research represents another step in our incremental evolution of understanding the biology of how people perceive and think about issues in politics and other aspects of life. The mental processes that underpin our perceptions and thoughts are often heavily influenced by our innate biology. In turn, that biology is shaped by both nature, and probably more importantly, nurture. Our culture, families, social identities, personal morals and other factors are all at play in shaping the world we perceive, whether the perception is accurate or not.

Most of this thinking and bias influence arises unconsciously. We are simply not aware of these things, unless we are told about them. And, even when told, many or most people cannot effectively internalize the knowledge. Mindsets are very hard to change. Is that what God intended or is it what arose naturally from evolution?

B&B orig: 8/24/18

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