Coronavirus Update 2: This is Bad

The Daily is a high quality information podcast the New York Times produces daily. Yesterday's podcast was an interview with Donald G. McNeil Jr., a science and health reporter for The New York Times. McNeil's comments about the Coronavirus are frightening. If McNeil is correct, this virus is much more dangerous than I realized. A couple of points need to be made.

First, reports that 80% of infections are mild were highly misleading. "Mild" was defined by Chinese officials as symptoms less than anything not requiring oxygen or a ventilator were classified as mild. That means people could have pneumonia just short of requiring oxygen or hospitalization and still be considered to have a mild infection. That is not mild. the other 20% were classified as severe (needing oxygen or a ventilator) or critical (organ failure).

Second, the symptoms are these: first high fever and dry cough, then fatigue. A runny nose is rare (~4%) and those may have been people with a cold or flu at the same time.

Third, McNeil now considers this virus to be on a par with the 1918 influenza outbreak that killed millions of  people. He calls it a "dangerous virus that transmits easily between people." He asked 12 experts about whether warnings about this virus have been overblown in view of the small number of infections so far. Eight said no and this will turn into a pandemic, two said yes warnings were overblown and two refused to take a guess.

Fourth, it isn't known how the infection will play out. Maybe the infection rate will slow or stop in the summer, but maybe not. And, no one can know what the final fatality rate will be. McNeil is taking steps to avoid crowds and touching surfaces in public as much as he can because he is spooked.