In an OP I posted last week, I cited statistics from a New York Times article indicating that the death rate from coronavirus infections was about 0.4%, making it about four times more lethal than the flu virus. The same article mentioned earlier estimates that put the death rate at about 2.3% for all of China and about 2.9% for Hubei Province in China. I cited the 0.4% rate because the higher rates were due to Chinese medical facilities being overwhelmed and many mild cases being left uncounted.
With additional data coming in from other countries, it is starting to look like the lethality of the coronavirus maybe be closer to the 2.9% rate for China's Hubei Province. An article today in the NYT indicates that about 87,000 people in 60 countries have been infected and almost 3,000 people have died. If that death rate holds up over time, the virus would have a lethality rate of about 3.4%, making it 34 times more lethal than the flu virus.
The caveat with that possibility is the same as it was for the early infection rates calculated for China: Maybe a lot of mild cases are going undetected and are therefore not counted. If 10 mild infections go undetected for every diagnosed infection, that would reduce the lethality rate to about 0.34%, which is fairly close to the 0.4% rate cited in my OP last week. The US has not had the ability to test many people, so most infections here maybe be going undetected.
Today's NYT article comments on the uncertainty: "The first death from the infection was reported on Saturday: a man who lived near Seattle. A model produced by infectious disease experts hints that the coronavirus may already have infected up to 1,500 people in the area. .... Much remains unknown about the virus, including how many people may have very mild or asymptomatic infections, and whether they can transmit the virus. The precise dimensions of the outbreak are hard to know. .... Scientists don’t know how long the new coronavirus can live on surfaces, and preliminary research suggests that hot and humid environments may not slow down the pathogen’s spread. Warm weather does tend to inhibit influenza and milder coronaviruses. Infected people may be able to pass on the new coronavirus even if they have few obvious symptoms, a study in Germany has found. .... Symptoms of this infection include fever, cough and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. The illness causes lung lesions and pneumonia. But milder cases may resemble the flu or a bad cold, making detection difficult. .... The best thing you can do to avoid getting infected is to follow the same general guidelines that experts recommend during flu season, because the coronavirus spreads in much the same way. Wash your hands frequently throughout the day. Avoid touching your face, and maintain a distance from anyone who is coughing or sneezing. .... At the moment, the risk of infection with the new coronavirus in the United States “is way too low for the general public to start wearing a face mask,” said Dr. Peter Rabinowitz, co-director of the University of Washington MetaCenter for Pandemic Preparedness and Global Health Security."
Some genetic testing of the virus in Washington State indicates that the virus has been spreading for several weeks without being detected. The point of all that is to point out that there still is uncertainty about infections and the rate of lethality. Over time more data will come in and more testing will be done.
It is not time to panic. All regular people can do is watch this carefully and take advice from real experts, but not Trump or Pence. They are ignorant.
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