Some Thoughts on Conspiracy Theories

Belief that the Earth is flat can reasonably be considered to be a debunked conspiracy theory. That belief requires the believers to also believe that there has is a massive conspiracy involving billions of people all over the world lasting for centuries. That is a bit of a stretch, to put it mildly.

In general, once a person is convinced about a big conspiracy, then believing anything becomes easier. Facts, expertise, sound reasoning can all fade in significance, or even disappear completely. One appeal of conspiracies is that they give permission to accept or reject out of hand, any claim, fact or reasoning. The conspiracy theory mindset tends to create a freedom to construct reality as a person wants. That allows believers to side-step the hard part of having to deal with actual reality and sound reasoning.

What about Qanon?

The conspiracy: The Q conspiracy says that Hillary Clinton and other powerful democrats are part of a world-wide cadre of Satan-worshiping cannibalistic pedophiles who are secretly taking over the world. In that crackpot narrative, the president is secretly a genius working behind the scenes with Mueller, and in some versions also with JFK Jr. who is secretly still alive, to uncover this evil cadre and bring them to justice. The justice bringing event is called the “Storm” in the Q narrative. Once the Storm is over, the president will usher in a new golden age.

Wot?: That all sounds right to me. (not really)

This is not mostly a matter of low IQ or naive gullibility. It is mostly a matter of a certain cognitive style that some people have. Science Daily discussed research published in 2018 in the Journal of Individual Differences comments:

“These people tend to be more suspicious, untrusting, eccentric, needing to feel special, with a tendency to regard the world as an inherently dangerous place. They are also more likely to detect meaningful patterns where they might not exist. People who are reluctant to believe in conspiracy theories tend to have the opposite qualities. Our results clearly showed that the strongest predictor of conspiracy belief was a constellation of personality characteristics collectively referred to as ‘schizotypy.’ The trait borrows its name from schizophrenia, but it does not imply a clinical diagnosis.”

Other research finds that conspiracy believers tend to have a relatively intuitive style of thinking, while an analytical style seems to hinder conspiracy thinking. This does not necessarily relate to intelligence. It is possible that being more intelligent may lead to greater susceptibility to conspiracy theories because those people are better able to rationalize nonsense into sense. Intelligence is complicates and multi-faceted. People who believe the QAnon (or flat Earth) narrative may be lacking some intellectual resource, but it not may be what we think of as intelligence.

Interestingly, a 2010 study found that when a charismatic leader aligns with what people tend to believe or their ideology, the critical thinking part of their brain turns off. Some other research suggests the same thing. Humans are a combination of multiple tendencies and cognitive abilities. The activity of such factors varies in different personal and social situations. Thus a person who is technically brilliant and normally astute could become a conspiracy believer under the right circumstances.