Double Standards: Trump vs. Biden Legitimacy

Voter fraud found in Pennsylvania!

A republican voted for Trump using his dead mother's ballot

Republicans are right -- dead people voted (for Trump) 

The case for Trump’s illegitimacy

Before and after the 2016 election, information kept coming out suggesting that the Russians were working to help get Trump elected. Facts of record including (1) a clandestine pre-election effort to set up a secret line of communication between Trump the Russian government, and (2) Trump’s unprecedented insistence on communicating with Putin in complete secrecy with no notes taken strongly suggested a conspiracy between Trump and the Russian government or Putin himself. Eventually, former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper publicly stated that “to me, it just exceeds logic and credulity that they [the Russians] didn’t affect the election, and it’s my belief they actually turned it.” 

As time passed, more evidence of Russian influence dribbled out to the public. My assessment of the probability that the Russians were a necessary (but not sufficient alone) factor in Trump’s electoral college win went initially from about 65%, to about 85% and then, including consideration of Clapper’s public statements, to ~98%. My belief was and still is that Trump has been an illegitimate president for his entire time in office.

That opinion was based on evidence in the public record. Where people will differ is in how they analyse the evidence and draw conclusions or whether they accept the evidence as real or relevant. My estimate is that most Trump opponents (~99% ?) believe that Trump was legitimate. My estimate is that most Trump supporters (~99.999% ?) do not believe the evidence is sufficient to conclude he was illegitimate. Most of them (~90% ?) probably do not believe that most or all of the evidence exists, is relevant and/or credible. 

The case for Biden’s illegitimacy

During Nov. 8-10, 2020, an Economist/YouGov poll of 1500 registered voters asked at question 38: “Would you say that Joe Biden legitimately won the election or not?” The results of question 38 are shown in the two figures shown below. As shown in the second figure, 86% of the 591 people who voted for Trump believe that Biden did not legitimately win the election. Other polling indicates that at least 70% of republicans do not believe the election was free and fair. 

If the polls are reasonably accurate, most republicans and Trump voters see Biden as illegitimate. What is the evidence for that belief? 

Many people, including republicans and journalists, have looked for evidence of widespread voter fraud or voter intimidation and major vote counting flaws or errors. So far, none has been found. A wealthy Texas republican politician, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, even offered a cash reward (minimum $25,000 for an arrest and conviction) for people to come forward with evidence of voter fraud. Apparently, the only claim so far was by a Pennsylvania democrat, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who offered evidence that at least one republican committed vote fraud in Pennsylvania. That person voting for Trump using his dead mother's ballot.[1] Two recent discussions here have detailed the lack of evidence of widespread voter fraud (here and here). At this point, it is fair to say there is no evidence that Biden’s win was illegitimate in any way.

So, is there equivalence of evidence here? Equivalence of partisan motivated reasoning? Does the evidence of Biden’s illegitimacy outweigh Trump’s? Is the evidence of Trump illegitimacy too weak to reasonably believe he really is illegitimate?

 

Footnote:

1. Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is asking for his share of a reward after he offered up a case of voter fraud to Republican Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick via Twitter. Patrick had announced that he is giving out $1 million in rewards for information that leads to voter fraud arrests and convictions.

“Hey, Governor Patrick — it’s your counterpart in Pennsylvania,” tweeted Fetterman, a Democrat. “I’d like to collect your handsome reward for reporting voter fraud. I got a dude in Forty Fort, PA who tried to have his dead mom vote for Trump. I’d like mine in Sheetz gift cards pls.” 

“They don’t want that kind of voter fraud,” said Fetterman, the former mayor of Braddock. “You can believe if that was a registered Democrat who tried to vote for Biden with his dead mother’s ballot, that would be front page news everywhere in those circles.”