How Close the 2020 Election Really Was

On Feb. 9, the Washington Post published this analysis of how close the election was. It was very close. WaPo writes:

Republicans came within 90,000 votes of controlling all of Washington

In fact, Republicans came, at most, 43,000 votes from winning each of the three levers of power. And that will surely temper any move toward drastic corrective action vis-a-vis former president Donald Trump.

The Democrats’ narrow retention of the House is surely one of the biggest surprises of 2020. In an election in which most analysts expected the Democrats to gain seats, they wound up losing 14, including virtually all of the “toss-ups.” While the GOP lost the presidential race and control of the Senate, we very nearly had a much different outcome.  

Biden won the three decisive states — Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin — by 0.6 percentage points or less, which was similar to Trump’s 2016 victory. If you flip fewer than 43,000 votes across those three states, the electoral college is tied 269 to 269. In that case, Trump would probably have won, given that the race would be decided by one vote for each House delegation, of which Republicans control more. 

So, 43,000 votes for president, 32,000 votes for the House and 14,000 votes for the Senate.[1] Shifts of 0.6 percent for president, 2.2 percent for the House, and 0.3 percent for the Senate.

That is how close it was. That result came despite the ex-president's shocking incompetence, corruption, harsh divisiveness, cruelty, tens of thousands of lies, his racism and his clear anti-democratic authoritarianism. An overwhelming majority of republicans in congress support him and so does an overwhelming majority of rank and file republicans.

That says something about American democracy, politics and society. They are all seriously poisoned.

Footnote: 

1. The Senate vote was based on the margin of Ossoff's win in the primary election, not the general election.