The Fascist Tyrant Wannabe Will Be Acquitted: What That Probably Means

The face of the fascist GOP

All the punditry and journalists are predicting that the ex-president will be acquitted in the next few days. His attorneys met yesterday with some prominent fascist GOP senators, in an open display of contempt for the proceedings. In the real world, that would have led to sanctions, maybe a mistrial and criminal prosecutions. But, since an impeachment trial is political, anything goes. One can reasonably presume that the Senators told the attorneys not to worry about losing the case and just give the fascist senators a fig leaf they can rely on to acquit their fascist leader.

Other signals of open contempt for the impeachment came in reports that up to 15 GOP senators at a time were simply not present. For some of the time Ted Cruz was in a separate room messing around with his cell phone. Josh Hawley and Marco Rubio were looking at their papers and paying no attention to the House managers. Some others who were in the room simply sat in stony faced silence. Nothing the House was saying made any difference in the already made-up minds of enough GOP senators.

The House argued that the proceedings were unconstitutional because the Senate voted to say it was constitutional. That did not make one iota of difference. Neither did the argument that the ex-president have been priming his supporters for violence even before the election when polls showed that he could lose the election. None of the House arguments fazed most of the republicans. 

Consensus observer opinion is that most the fascists will rely on the unconstitutionality argument as an excuse to acquit. That seems quite possible. It sees to be what defense attorneys will focus on, despite that being a loser argument in the real world outside of partisan politics.

The January Exception: Down in flames

House arguments that letting a president off the hook creates a precedent of allowing a president to do whatever he wants near the end of his term also fell on deaf ears. The House managers called it the "January Exception" to impeachment. 

IMO, that characterization is off the mark. In fact the precedent it will set is this: At any time during a republican president's term, he can break laws and commit impeachable offenses with impunity if the republican party controls the House and/or enough Senate seats to acquit. If not, then one can presume the other might try an impeachment. That analysis is based on how blatant the offenses the ex-president committed and how irrelevant they have become for the republican party. The facts are that, despite a blatant coup attempt openly incited by a republican president on Jan. 6, most House members would never have impeached and most republican senators would not impeach. 

If the shoe was on the other foot

In other words, impeachment is now a matter of exercising pure partisan power. If the democratic party alone does not have the power to impeach and convict a republican president, impeachment is politically impossible. What could be more impeachable than fomenting a violent coup attempt? 

There is no reason to believe that the democratic party is nearly as anti-democratic and authoritarian as the republican party has become over the last four years. A majority of Democrats in congress could still vote to impeach and convict a democratic president, e.g., for what the ex-president did on Jan. 6. Maybe time will tell if that analysis is correct and a future democratic president goes off the rails like the ex-president did. That scenario is contingent of there ever being another democratic president and at least some democrats in congress.

Stepping back

What does all of this mean, other than the ex-president will have gotten off with inciting a violent coup attempt? I think quite a lot.

1. By acquitting, the GOP openly rejects impeachment as a restraining option against future republican presidents. It also, rejects an opportunity to defend democracy, making the label fascist reasonable.

2. It signals the party's turn to embrace the ex-president's brand of corrupt, authoritarianism. It also signals the weakness of republicans in congress who wanted at least this impeachment. But in view of their track record of mostly supporting the ex-president, it was not the case that they were all that far off in their politics or tactics. The GOP is truly anti-democratic and fascist, or some close variant of it.

3. In this impeachment, the republican senate intentionally delayed the start of the senate trial until about 1 hour after Biden was sworn in. There was no compelling reason for that other than partisan defense of the ex-president. It was done to strengthen the defense that the president was out of office before the trial started. That is reminiscent of what the republican senate did to subvert the supreme court nomination of Merrick Garland to the supreme court after Scalia's death. The republicans delayed for months in the hope of partisan advantage from the 2016 election. That tactic paid off handsomely.

From that, I conclude that once the republicans regain control of the House, Senate and White House, the Senate will immediately get rid of the filibuster and ram through oppressive anti-democratic, pro-authoritarian laws. They will make political opposition impossible to the fullest extent they can, maybe more than that. They will suppress democratic and minority votes as much as possible. With the adoption of fascism, the GOP will have no qualms about trying to go all the way to gut democracy, the rule of law and whatever restraints on presidential power and party power that are left. That moves to America close to or at the permanent single-party rule status the GOP intensely lusts for.

Based on that analysis, the democratic Senate should get rid of the filibuster immediately and ram through as much legislation as they can before they lose control of the House and or Senate in 2022. That legislation should make it as hard and slow to undo as can be conceived of, e.g., legislation passed with a proviso that it cannot be repealed except by a two-thirds majority in the House and Senate. 

4. Some commentators are starting to openly state what I have been arguing here since 2017. Specifically, they see that the ultimate goal of the republican party has been excluding racial minorities, women, non-Christians and ideological opposition from power in government and society. I have pointed out the bigoted nature of Christian Nationalist ideology in several discussions. 

Yesterday was the first time I recall hearing that point being made by responsible professional commentators on broadcast media. And, there was real anger in that commentary. An wakening by wider society about just how dangerous and anti-democratic the republican party has become is finally starting to sink in more widely. I just hope it isn't too little, too late.

5. Senate acquittal of the ex-president puts the GOP squarely on the road to some form of a bigoted, kleptocratic tyranny-Christian theocracy. Fascism seems a reasonable label for what the republican party has degenerated into, although experts disagree about that. 

A major is problem how to try to deal with the threat. Inconvenient facts, truths and sound reasoning are ineffective. This impeachment has once again proved that point. A more effective way to communicate and persuade is needed. The best path forward for American anti-fascists is not clear. Sinking to the same immoral, divisive and mendacious level as the fascists is tempting but too dangerous. Then the opposition becomes too like the fascists for democracy and the rule of law to likely survive.

Some see the danger