Monday, May 3, 2021

America is unlikely to reach herd immunity



Widely circulating coronavirus variants and persistent hesitancy about vaccines will keep the goal out of reach.

Now, more than half of adults in the United States have been inoculated with at least one dose of a vaccine. But daily vaccination rates are slipping, and there is widespread consensus among scientists and public health experts that the herd immunity threshold is not attainable — at least not in the foreseeable future, and perhaps not ever.

Instead, they are coming to the conclusion that rather than making a long-promised exit, the virus will most likely become a manageable threat that will continue to circulate in the United States for years to come, still causing hospitalizations and deaths but in much smaller numbers.
The NYT goes on to point out that the level of infections, hospitalization and deaths will depend on (i) how many people are willing to get vaccinated and (ii) how nasty new virus variants will be. 

Millions of Americans are refusing to get vaccinated. Some point to the lack of long-term safety data, a legitimate concern, but one that decreases the longer the vaccines have been in use and safety data accumulates. Some don't believe the vaccines work, which is blithering nonsense. Some are anti-vaxx conspiracy theory crackpots. For various reasons, some listen to liars who attack COVID vaccines as causing deaths, ineffective, immoral and/or an attack on their freedom. And, now that herd immunity is not likely to be possible, some will get discouraged, just give up and take their chances that the vaccinated rest of us will protect them.

Some context helps.
  • All states require vaccination against diseases such as polio, tetanus and measles, but most with opt-out exceptions for personal or religious reasons 
  • An employer may be able require employees to get vaccinated against COVID under most circumstances, but that's uncertain because the vaccines now are under an emergency use authorization instead of a normal use authorization
  • A person with HIV is criminally liable for prosecution if they transmit the virus to their partner without informing the partner of their HIV status; usually intentional or knowing failure to disclose is the criminal offense
  • As of now, over half of adult Americans (>165 million) have received at least one vaccine shot and so far benefits continue to outweigh side effect risks
  • Current data shows the vaccines are effective by significantly reducing the rate of new infections by at least 90% in populations where there is data
  • Experts believe that at least 80 percent of people need to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity, but about 30 percent of the US population is still reluctant or refuses to be vaccinated

It is a fact that some people who intentionally choose to not get vaccinated will infect other people, some of whom will die. 

What, should society do to protect itself? Nothing, because vaccination is a matter of personal choice or personal liberty? Criminalize or fine non-vaccination when it causes infection or death, assuming an infection or death is linked to an unvaccinated person? Let infected people or their estates sue the unvaccinated person? Why should COVID be treated any different than HIV, polio, tetanus or measles? Is refusal to be vaccinated morally justifiable on the grounds of personal freedom, religious belief or anything else? Should there be a tax penalty for refusal to get vaccinated so that the US can recover at least some of the cost that unvaccinated people will inevitably cause?

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