Wednesday, May 12, 2021

Analysis of the insurrectionists and their motivation

An 18-minute interview with a professor who studies political violence all over the world led him to some interesting findings about the insurrectionists in the 1/6 coup attempt. 





Summary of the interview
Most of the 1/6/ insurrectionists were male (~85%) and White (~94%) and ~34 to 55 years old. About 45% were professionals including CEOs, business owners, doctors, lawyers and managers, but only 7% were unemployed, about the same as the national average. About 90% of the 420 arrested so far are not affiliated with any militia or gang. The apparent main driver was fear of the Great Replacement of rights of Whites by expanding rights for non-White Hispanics and Blacks. About half of the insurrectionists came from counties that voted for Biden, i.e., urban areas. The main risk factor was % decline in non-Hispanic White population -- counties where the White population was declining had the highest likelihood of participating in the violent protest. Fear of the Great Replacement was the main driver of violence.


Commentary
This fear makes no sense to me. Rights for White are not going away or being reduced. Rights and privileges for non-Whites are possibly coming closer to White rights and privileges. Replacement isn't possible. About 4% of adult Americans fit the insurrectionist mindset, but a much greater group are driven by fear of the Great Replacement and they sincerely believe the election was stolen. The larger group claims they are not willing to participate in violence, but include a lot of active and passive supporters of the insurrectionists, i.e., they are willing to overlook or sympathize with the crimes of the insurrectionists because they were fighting in defense of what they see as severely threatened White rights and privileges.



Is this the basis for the Great Replacement fear?

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