Tuesday, May 18, 2021

The end of abortion rights is on the horizon


The Republican supreme court agreed to hear an abortion law case from Mississippi. The MS law prohibits abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, which is clearly unconstitutional under existing law and precedent of the last 48 years. In the past the supreme court declined to hear such cases and let stand appeals court decisions that struck down various laws from various states that were too burdensome on the right to abortion as outlined in Roe v Wade in 1973. That the court decided to hear this case indicates to me that it has found a set of facts it wants to use to overturn the Roe decision. 

The question the court will decide is whether there is a constitutional right to an abortion. The specific question the court will answer is this: “whether all pre-viability prohibitions on elective abortions are unconstitutional.” In other words, is any elective abortion constitutional? If the answer is no, then that's the end of all abortions based on a woman's choice to abort. 

It is reasonable to believe that the answer will be no, with about a 90% chance of that by my personal assessment. If the court does not overturn Roe, then taking up the case makes no sense because there is no disagreement among appeals courts about abortion law. To me, this is a clear signal that Roe is going to be overturned.

If it is no, the next question is how far will the court will go? It could leave abortions up to individual states, more or less restoring the old pre-Roe status quo. Or, maybe it would go further and declare that all abortions of choice are unconstitutional in all states. If it choses the latter option, then nearly all abortions in the US will be illegal. I do not have a feel for how likely the nationwide ban option is. Maybe it is unlikely, but probably not impossible given how radical the Republicans on the court are and how much they hate abortion. 

Given how the question is worded, if the answer is that no elective abortion is constitutional, then only reliance on state's rights would prevent the ruling from being nationwide. Maybe a nationwide abortion ban is the most likely outcome.

Republicans judges were put on the court specifically to overturn Roe. There has been a litmus test for Republican judges decades and it was Roe and abortion rights. Now the time of Roe is coming to an end.


America after Roe
Given the deep animosity of some or most republicans (and nearly all republican politicians and judges) to abortion, one can reasonably believe that laws will pass in republican states making essentially all abortions illegal in their states. They will probably also make it a criminal offense, e.g., murder or manslaughter, for a pregnant woman to leave or try to leave the state to get an abortion outside the state. If the supreme court says that abortions of choice are unconstitutional in all states, then pregnant women will have to travel outside the US to get an abortion and risk whatever punishments their states impose to try to stop them.

As usual, rich and most middle class women will usually be able to get abortions and poor women will usually be forced to have babies they do not want. Some women will try to get illegal abortions and some of them will die because of it. The lives of some women will be ruined. 

What the Republican court is probably going to do to Roe is not what most Americans support. That's no surprise. The fascist GOP usually rules without regard for public opinion. This case is no exception. That most Americans want to see Roe stay valid is of no concern. To head off a grumpy public response, the GOP might decide to crank up its massive anti-abortion propaganda, lies and slander machine to soften the blow. How successful that potential propaganda push might be is an open question.

If the court follows precedent for controversial decisions, the decision will be released at the end of June in 2021 or maybe 2022. That is when the court term ends, allowing justices who don't want to face big protests a chance to get the hell out of town and hope the backlash dies down before the next term starts in October of 2021 (or 2022).

On the positive side, it is reasonable to think that the number of unwanted pregnancies will noticeably decrease. Presumably most women will be very careful about birth control or abstinence from sex. Of course, that assumes that women are educated about sex and birth control methods. If they aren't they could be in for some nasty, life-changing surprises.


Question: Can one reasonably see this as another aggressive theocratic intrusion of Christianity into government, the law and society generally?

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