Roe v. Wade propaganda wars

The propaganda is flying thick and heavy. Republicans say the decision to overturn Roe was leaked by a Democrat for Democratic advantage. Me and some others thought it was leaked by a Republican for Republican advantage.

Faux News and Mitch McConnell are desperately and transparently deflecting by ignoring the fact that Roe is about to be overturned. Republicans are foaming at the mouth about the leak damaging the court and being the worst thing to ever happen with the court. 

Republican "reasoning", i.e., dark free speech, includes irrational deceit like this.

Republican propaganda: The Democrats weren't concerned about abortion before the leak and now they are.

Rational response: Well yeah, isn't that what one would expect? Something happens and then people respond. Before the decision leaked, polling indicated that Democrats were not worried about abortion because they wrongly believed that Roe was settled law and abortions would remain legal. (IMO, this indicates how shockingly ignorant and/or disinformed the electorate is, including Democrats)  

Republican propaganda: In response to the decision about the reversal of Roe and McConnell's direct role in putting those judges on the Supreme Court, he responds by  attacking the leak. He ignored the question about Roe or his role in killing it. 

Rational response: McConnell's tactic is pure partisan politics. The tactic is to ignore, downplay or reject bad news, and deflect to something either helpful or at least less damaging. He uses the tried and true KYMS** propaganda tactic by completely ignoring the important questions like his role in killing Roe despite majority public opinion that wants to keep abortions legal.  

** Keep your mouth shut

Republican propaganda: This leak is the worst thing to ever happen with the court.

Rational response: The leak is not worse than court sanction and legalization of racial segregation of public schools. Worse things have come from the court. This is just another means to deflect from  the fact that abortions in 23 states will immediately go completely or almost completely away. Here's a summary:

• 9 states retain their unenforced, pre-Roe abortion bans.
• 13 states have post-Roe laws to ban all or nearly all abortions that would be triggered if Roe were overturned.
• 9 states have unconstitutional post-Roe restrictions that are currently blocked by courts but could be brought back into effect with a court order in Roe’s absence.
• 7 states have laws that express the intent to restrict the right to legal abortion to the maximum extent permitted by the U.S. Supreme Court in the absence of Roe.
• 4 states have passed a constitutional amendment explicitly declaring that their constitution does not secure or protect the right to abortion or allow use of public funds for abortion.

One can envision advantages and disadvantages for the leak for both Republicans and Democrats.[1] Time will tell whether advantage goes to one side or the other. We may not ever know if a Democrat or Republican leaked the decision, or what their specific reasoning was to leak it. 

Given recent norm-busting and mendacious behaviors by Republicans, especially since T**** was elected, but also including McConnell's refusal to consider Obama's Supreme Court nominee, the leak feels very likely to be Republican.

Footnote: 

1. Ideas that a commenter here posted yesterday.

Possible motives for a Democrat to leak

(Note: Dems probably won't agree with all of this, but 

consider that Republicans see a very different reality)

1. The General Election is in six months. For funds to be of the best use, they need to be raised now, before the summer. DNC fundraising has been weak. So this could be a Democratic attempt to come up with an issue that'll get funds into campaigns.

2. The DNC has been weaker with suburban white women than they have been in recent cycles. Democrats are very concerned about the Latino vote, especially Latino women. So this may be an attempt to get these two key demographics, and other demographics that are solidly Democratic (urban/professional women and women of color) to not sleep off this election.

3. Democratic enthusiasm and activism has been down. The momentum that was so big on the ground for Progressives all throughout the past five years or so has pretty much dried up in the last two. The ones really pushing on the ground seem to be Conservatives, and the momentum seemed to be with them going on the offensive on things like gender issues, education, CRT, and other issues of high salience. So this might be a way for the DNC to get the activism going again.

4. DNC is losing the PR struggle this year (as usual IMO). Things like the Hunter Biden laptop, the situation in Ukraine, the economy and inflation, the Durham probe, and general anxiety over what this regime will do next has been forcing the administration on the back foot, trying to place defense, justifying itself and its actions in the face of what has been going on. The Court leak, at this time, gets the focus off of all the negative issues that have been plaguing Biden and the Democrats, and onto something that, for once, isn't Congress or executive branch related.

Possible motives for a Republican to leak

(Note: Repubs probably won't agree with all of this, but 

consider that Democrats see a very different reality)

1. Since the decision was going to become public, it would be better for the GOP to have it hit sooner, rather than later. The closer this hits to the General Election, the more it will impact the election, and the less the campaigns will be able to create a propaganda strategy to counter it. This is the whole "soften the blow" argument, because it's a whole lot easier to handle a big event six months out from a General Election than three months out. (This was my initial reaction and it still seems the most likely to me)

2. The Right may think it is advantageous for them to leak this decision, because whatever Democratic or public reaction it provokes would be useful to Republicans somehow. Reaction in opposition can be used to paint opposition to overturning Roe as dangerous radicalism, or an effort to intimidate the Court. (This seems very unlikely IMO)

3. Christian conservatives tend to support results, rather than platitudes, about the right to life. They've been successful in some states, but not so much on the Federal level, and they were deeply concerned about whether the Roberts court could deliver on Roe. This may change that, and get Christian conservatives to start going in big on support for Republicans, especially in campaign donations.

4. This might be a way for the GOP to jack up the enthusiasm downticket, towards state races, where they already have a few good wedge issues working for them, mainly in education. Again, the money raised now is much more useful than the money raised three months from now. Not only that, but this now makes GOP primaries, which are currently underway, much more important.