Sunday, October 15, 2023

Opinion | We Need to Reframe the Debate Over Ukraine

 Even with violence returning to the Middle East, Ukraine remains a frontline of defense in a volatile world. But leaders need to start making that case.

Opinion by P. MICHAEL MCKINLEY

P. Michael McKinley is a non-resident senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The unprecedented attack by Hamas on Israel will complicate the debate in the United States and internationally about sustaining assistance for Ukraine as it defends itself against Russia’s aggression. Israel merits the unquestioned support of its allies as it responds to the most significant challenge it has faced since the Yom Kippur War in 1973. But it does not follow that the conflict in Ukraine should fade into the background.

Events in Israel along with other worrying developments — including Azerbaijan’s assault on Nagorno-Karabakh and Serbia’s border build-up with Kosovo — only underscore how quickly the international order we’ve long taken for granted has been undermined since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 20 months ago. The world we’re entering is becoming a more volatile, violent place.

For Western nations who want to forestall that future, the first line of defense remains Ukraine. Israel is receiving support and likely to prevail in its conflict with Hamas, but without continued assistance from the United States and its allies, Ukraine is much less likely to win its war with Russia.

If Ukraine is not to suffer the fate of other “forever wars” and become a secondary priority to a possibly wider conflict in the Middle East, or a global landscape with other pressing demands, U.S. leaders need to recast the case for staying the course on Ukraine. Messaging on Ukraine should include greater realism about the conflict, its complexities, its likely outcome and what it means for global security.

The truth is that sustaining assistance for Ukraine is already a challenge, as much psychological as political. Fatigue has kicked in among Ukraine’s supporters notwithstanding reassuring statements by President Joe Biden and European leaders following the revolt by congressional GOP hardliners in Washington against further financial support for the war effort. In our recent past, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, costing trillions of dollars and thousands of American lives, increasingly came to be described as forgotten wars as they dragged on for many years.


Ukraine should not be seen in the same way. The moment is fast approaching for the Biden administration to strengthen the rationale for sustaining the war effort, by starting first with redefining the strategic commitment of the U.S. and its allies. At the NATO summit in June, it became clear that the allies have yet to provide everything Ukraine needs to significantly improve its battlefield performance. The debate continues over what weapons to supply. Allies also pushed off Ukraine’s NATO membership into an indefinite future.


Supporting Ukraine “whatever it takes” should be understood as part and parcel of supporting our allies globally in an increasingly unstable international environment. Should Ukraine fail, the world will re-enter a period of history, which only receded after 1945, where stronger nations can obliterate weaker ones, redraw boundaries, and drive national identities to extinction, and international extremists can act with impunity. We cannot afford to let that era return.


More on this argument:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/10/10/middle-east-violence-ukraine-00120709


Putin is also sitting tight in the hopes of a Trump win in 2024. Poland has stopped shipments of arms to Ukraine and Hungary is an unreliable partner. AND should Belarus join Russia's aggression, oh my!

It's time for NATO and the U.S. to give Ukraine what it needs to WIN this war rather than fight for a stalemate.


However, all our attention now is on Israel and Hamas. How easily we are distracted. 

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