Saturday, April 20, 2024

Israeli public opinion about the war in Gaza: The outlook is very bad for the Palestinians

From what I could tell, the murderous 10/7 attack by Hamas on Israel probably turned a lot of Israeli public opinion against the Palestinian people and their cause. But is that really true? Apparently. A search of Israeli public opinion gave this answer:
Q: What is Israeli public opinion about the actions the Israeli military are taking in Gaza?

A: The vast majority of Israelis, across the political spectrum, are convinced of the justice of the war against Hamas in Gaza.
  • 57.5% of Israeli Jews believe the Israeli military (IDF) is using too little firepower in Gaza, while only 1.8% think the IDF is using too much.
  • Despite some dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Netanyahu's handling of the war, trust in the IDF remains high, with 49.5% of Israelis expressing confidence in the military's actions.
  • Israelis have rallied to crush Hamas after the October 7th attack that killed over 1,400 people and took over 240 hostages. They have little tolerance for criticism of the steep toll the conflict has taken on Palestinians.
  • Even Israelis who oppose the occupation largely reject any contextualization of the Hamas attack, viewing it as an unjustified breach of Israel's borders. 
In summary, the Israeli public overwhelmingly supports the military's actions in Gaza, with a majority believing the IDF is not using enough force, despite growing international criticism of the high Palestinian casualties and destruction. Israelis see the war as a justified response to the Hamas attack.
If that data is basically correct, it along with past history, strongly suggest that the Palestinians and their cause are screwed permanently. There will probably never be a two-state solution. The only solution that looks plausible to me for the foreseeable future is the forced removal of all Palestinians to miserable, poverty-stricken enclaves that are strictly controlled by the Israeli military. The time for diplomacy is probably gone and not coming back any time soon, if ever. This is looks like it is getting close to end of the ~76 year-old game called Middle East peace. 

Of course, that's just my current opinion. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe something will change.

Qs: 
1. This is not a perfect analogy, but if terrorists in Canada lobbed missiles into the US and crossed the border killing ~25,000 people and taking ~1,500 hostages back across the border, would you support proportionally about the same level of retaliation against Canada with ~575,000 Canadian deaths (mostly non-combatant civilians), based on a kill ratio of ~23:1 as estimated for the current Gaza conflict (probably too low because many Palestinians are simply unaccounted for and may be dead).  

2. It is unreasonably sanctimonious or unfair for Americans and other foreigners to criticize the level of bloodshed among Palestinian civilians?

3. Does past history matter, e.g., the Q&A quoted below?
Q: Has Israel blocked a two-state solution since 1948?

A: Based on the search results, it appears that Israel has taken actions that have made the two-state solution increasingly difficult to achieve since 1948: 
  • After the 1948 Arab-Israeli war, Israel captured more territory than was originally allocated to it under the 1947 UN Partition Plan, while Jordan took control of the West Bank and Egypt took control of Gaza. This resulted in hundreds of thousands of Palestinians becoming stateless refugees. 3 5
  • In the 1967 Six-Day War, Israel captured the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and other Arab territories. This led to the idea that Israel would exchange land it had captured for peace with its Arab neighbors, including the Palestinians. 5
  • However, over time, Israel has continued to expand settlements in the occupied West Bank, making the prospect of an independent and contiguous Palestinian state more difficult. 1 3 4
  • Some scholars argue that the two-state solution was "stillborn" and "never a solution" due to the competing nationalist claims over the land and the difficulty of partitioning it equitably. 4
So in summary, while the two-state solution was initially proposed as a framework for resolving the conflict, Israel's actions since 1948 - including capturing and occupying Palestinian territories and expanding settlements - have made the realization of this solution increasingly remote over time, according to the sources provided. The search results suggest Israel has been a major obstacle to achieving a viable two-state solution.

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