Poll data on Gaza ceasefire

Some poll data indicates that most Americans want a push for a ceasefire in Gaza. Zeto recently reported:

New Poll Suggests Gaza Ceasefire and 

Arms Embargo Would Help Dems with Swing State Voters

The YouGov/IMEU Policy Project poll found over a third of voters in Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia are more likely to vote for a Democratic nominee who pledges to withhold weapons to Israel

A significant share of Democrats and independent voters in pivotal swing states Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona are more likely to vote for the Democratic presidential nominee (presumptively Kamala Harris) if said nominee pledges support for an arms embargo to Israel, and if President Joe Biden secures a permanent ceasefire in Gaza. The findings come in new polling commissioned by the Institute for Middle Eastern Understanding Policy Project and conducted by polling firm YouGov.

In Pennsylvania, 34% of respondents said they would be more likely to vote for the Democratic nominee if the nominee vowed to withhold weapons to Israel, compared to 7% who said they would be less likely. The rest said it would make no difference. In Arizona, 35% said they’d be more likely, while 5% would be less likely. And in Georgia, 39% said they’d be more likely, also compared to 5% who would be less likely. 

Similar results were found when respondents were asked separately if they were more or less likely to vote for the Democratic nominee if Biden called for an end to US.-funded weapons to Israel or if the US president secured a ceasefire.

The results were particularly stark when looking at responses by those who voted for Biden in 2020 and are currently undecided. In Pennsylvania, 57% of such voters said they’d be more likely to support the Democratic nominee if they pledged to withhold additional weapons to Israel for committing human rights abuses; in Arizona, 44% said the same; in Georgia, 34% said so.

YouGov has been ranked 3rd out of several hundred polling organizations.

Responsible Statecraft reported this last December: 

Roughly three in four Democrats support a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, according to a new poll from Data for Progress [poll ranking 24th] that highlights the sharp divide between the Democratic Party and its supporters as Israel resumes its ground campaign in the war-torn strip. A total of 61% of Americans polled said they were in favor of a ceasefire.

While the Biden administration has signaled that it is concerned about the level of civilian casualties in Gaza, the White House maintains that any sustained pause in fighting would embolden Hamas and enable future attacks against Israel.

The administration’s hard-line position stands in contrast to the growing support for a ceasefire in the House, where roughly half of the Democratic caucus has called for an end to the war. Biden’s policy has, however, earned a better reception in the Senate, with only two Democrats saying they back a ceasefire.

The poll, which surveyed roughly 1,200 likely voters between Nov. 22 and 25, also found that a plurality (49%) of Republican voters support a ceasefire, though that number dropped by more than 10 points when respondents were told that such a move would “keep Hamas in power and allow them to prepare another attack against Israel.”  

Voters also overwhelmingly support the idea that weapons sales to Israel should be conditioned on human rights, according to the survey. That trend is particularly strong among Democrats, 76% of whom say Tel Aviv should only receive weapons if it uses them in accordance with “our standards for human rights.”

Truthout commented on the YouGov poll mentioned above: Support for an end to the arms transfers to Israel is strongest among those who are undecided in the presidential race.

A Gallup poll from last March (poll ranking 35th) reported this data:

Apparently, being informed changes opinions

If the collective poll data is correct, a call by Harris for at least a ceasefire probably would help her more than it hurt. However, doing that would probably anger many pro-Israel people and groups in the US. AIPAC might throw its considerable cash and influence in support of DJT, who favors obliteration of the Palestinian people. If the election is close, that factor alone might be sufficient to tip the race in favor of DJT. 

It would be beyond ironic if the US lost its democracy to authoritarianism due in a small but necessary part to continuing US support for Israel's war in Gaza. We live in times that are very dangerous for democracy, civil liberties and the rule of law. Unreasonably and irrationally dangerous.