The staggering fragility of American democracy: The Nebraska horror story

A terrifying NYT opinion (not paywalled) discusses the possibility that one person, Nebraska State Senator Mike McDonnell, who defected from the Democratic Party a few months ago, is standing in the Republican Party’s way of giving DJT the election if the closest electoral college scenario comes to pass:

A Leading Law Scholar Fears We’re Lurching Toward Secession

Here’s how rickety our constitutional system has become: The fate of the 2024 election could hang on the integrity of a single Republican state senator in Nebraska.

Almost all states use a winner-take-all system to apportion their presidential electors, but Nebraska and Maine award some electors by congressional district. In 2020, Joe Biden won one of Nebraska’s five electoral votes, and Donald Trump won one elector from rural Maine. This year Kamala Harris’s clearest path to victory is to take the so-called blue wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, plus one electoral vote in Nebraska.

This year, Republicans waited until it was too late for Maine to change its rules before starting a push to change them in Nebraska. If they succeeded and Harris held the blue wall but lost the other swing states, there would be a tie in the Electoral College. For the first time in 200 years, the election would go to the House, where each state delegation would get one vote and Trump would almost certainly be installed as president.

So far, one man, State Senator Mike McDonnell, who defected from the Democratic Party this spring, is standing in the Republican Party’s way. We should all be grateful for his courage. But the pressure on him from his new party will be intense, and he can still change his mind in the coming weeks.

Whether or not McDonnell remains steadfast, this is a preposterous way to run a purportedly democratic superpower. The Electoral College — created in part, as the scholar Akhil Reed Amar has shown, to protect slavery — has already given us two presidents in the 21st century who lost the popular vote, and it continues to warp our politics. It is one reason Erwin Chemerinsky, the dean of the U.C. Berkeley School of Law and an eminent legal scholar, has come to despair of the Constitution he’s devoted much of his life to. “I believe that if the problems with the Constitution are not fixed — and if the country stays on its current path — we are heading to serious efforts at secession,” he writes in his bracing new book, “No Democracy Lasts Forever: How the Constitution Threatens the United States.”

To me, the main point is this: this is a preposterous way to run a purportedly democratic superpower. 

Chemerinsky's concern about secession is too far out in time to be a serious worry for me at least. The possibility of a constitutional convention doing anything significant or at all is very low because 38 states (75%: 37.5 gets rounded up to 38) would need to ratify it. That is politically just about impossible, if not actually impossible. 

So, join with me and let's fret about the crappy way we run our democracy, which is on the verge of falling to some form of kleptocratic authoritarianism. Just one yahoo in Nebraska could drag us into the brutality and cruelty of DJT and MAGA in control. Let's hope that probably low-probability Nebraska scenario does not come to pass.

What, me worry? Nah!

America's fine-tuned electoral

system works just fine  /s