Assessing threats to democracy: The mindset factor

Sometimes I get criticized for being irrationally alarmist or hyperbolic for using labels that some people feel to be too inflammatory irrational and/or just plain crackpot under current circumstances in American society and politics. Labels like kleptocratic autocracy, Christian Taliban, and Christian theocracy, strike some people as at least ludicrous because of a perceived implausibility of such bad things actually coming to pass in American government and politics. 

I hear and understand the criticisms. But that has not changed the intensity of personal fear about what could happen to our democracy. My critics are not seeing and feeling what I see and feel. Maybe I am wrong and my critics are right, but it does not feel that way.

Whaddabout how MAGA feels about things?

One way to think about the nature and severity of any threat to American democracy and civil liberties is to consider how rank and file MAGA people feel about various threats, including threats to democracy. Common feelings and complaints from the MAGA rank and file include:

• anxiety about rapid social and cultural shifts they perceive as threatening traditional values, e.g., fears about immigration, changing demographics, LGBTQ+ rights and perceived severe attacks on religious liberty, often amounting to religious persecution, 

• resentment of condescending liberal elites and institutions they see corrupt, a mainstream media perceived as biased against conservatives, anti-American liberal universities and academia and nefarious deep state government bureaucrats who work against conservative interests,

• economic anxiety over socialism and expansion of welfare programs, and resentments over perceived unfair advantages given to minorities and immigrants, and 

• serious threats to democracy from Democrats who (i) engage in alleged voter fraud and election manipulation, and (ii) use baseless legal actions against Trump as a form of election interference, and an attempt to disqualify or block Trump from running for office.

Those fears and resentments are often amplified by authoritarian radical right media and dark free speech from authoritarian elites to create a sense of urgency and existential threat. Although these concerns are commonly expressed, they often do not align very well or at all with factual realities or broader societal trends. This group constitutes about half of adult Americans.

Whaddabout how Germaine feels about things? The missing mindset factor

Well, if about half of adult Americans feel urgent existential authoritarian threats allegedly from Democrats, shady deep state bureaucrats and other bad people, why can’t a person feel even more threatened by Trump and MAGA? If Germaine is a crackpot or alarmist idiot, what does that make the MAGA rank and file? The majority of the evidence indicates that Trump and the GOP are fundamentally authoritarian. For example:

Q: Is it more accurate to call Trump and the modern GOP radical right authoritarian or pro-democracy conservative?

A: It appears more accurate to characterize Trump and the modern Republican Party as radical right authoritarian rather than pro-democracy conservative. The GOP has undergone a decades-long shift away from traditional conservative principles toward authoritarianism. This transformation predates Trump but accelerated under his influence. The party has embraced an agenda that undermines democratic norms and institutions, including blocking investigations into the January 6th attack on the capitol, promoting false claims of election fraud, and making it easier to tamper with vote counting processes.

Solidly authoritarian is how I see Trump, the GOP and the MAGA movement. In my firm opinion, the power and social and political infrastructure of American radical right authoritarianism is already a deadly serious threat. That is a part of why I feel the situation is a lot worse than my critics assert.

To be fair and balanced, the Democrats and liberalism arguably are significantly more pro-democracy than MAGA. One can argue the level of threat is not the same from the two sides because that is what most of the evidence I am aware of indicates. 

The mindset factor

What are the difference between me and my critics? Based on how I understand their criticisms, the main difference appears to be the weight given to the authoritarian mental state. I weigh it pretty heavily. Authoritarianism eroding democracy is a lot like water wearing down rocks that get in the way, even if it takes a very long time. I’ve called the situation something like a one-way ratchet to a corrupt authoritarian hell. 

From what I can tell, the arguments my critics level at my alleged alarmism/crackpottery put most weight on non-mental factors. They look at the long history of stable, American democracy (arguably partly false), solid democratic institutions, and national prosperity. From that point of view they conclude it is very unlikely that anything close to true authoritarianism is possible, despite Trump, the GOP, the supreme court, and the rest of the MAGA wealth and power movement. The “it can’t happen here” arguments assert that, e.g., (i) the US is not Weimar Germany, or the Taliban in Afghanistan, (ii) there is not the economic stress of the Great Depression, or (iii) a small minority of elite authoritarian activists cannot thwart majority pro-democracy public opinion. Some of that is true, i and ii, but all of it seems to overlook or downplay the elite authoritarian mindset.[1] 

I seem to weigh the elite authoritarian mindset factor more heavily than other factors like democratic institutional stability and national prosperity. Like Trump and his MAGA movement, Project 2025 is more authoritarian than democratic. Determined authoritarians know how to subvert a democracy. 

Authoritarians target and exploit vulnerabilities in democratic systems, e.g., social susceptibility to deceit and manipulation by dark free speech, government corrupted by special interest money, a collapsing rule of law for rich and powerful elites and businesses, etc. What we do not know is how far Trump, the GOP and MAGA will descend into corrupt authoritarianism compared to monsters like Hitler and Stalin. But if his mindset based on his rhetoric and past behavior are reliable evidence, Trump intends to go pretty deep if he gets the power to try.

None of this is likely to change any minds. But, at least my reasoning should be clear.

Footnote:

1. Perplexity:

Q: In comparing various events in history, e.g., Trump’s 1/6 coup attempt vs Hitler’s 1923 putsch in Munich, how much weight is given to assessing mindsets, e.g., authoritarian vs democratic, to assess differences vs similarities?

A: Several factors are considered to assess similarities and differences, with the underlying mindsets and ideologies playing a significant role: 

Ideological Underpinnings: The authoritarian vs. democratic mindset is a crucial factor in these comparisons. Both events involved leaders with authoritarian tendencies attempting to subvert democratic processes.