I share Jon Meacham's view of the election. Now is the time to step back and watch how DJT performs from now until the next elections in Nov. 2026 and 2028. He is willing to let DJT prove him wrong about how it will turn out. Meacham fears chaos and constitutional problems. I fear one or more forms of deeply corrupt authoritarianism. We both hope we are wrong.
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Going forward, it seems reasonable to document what I expect will be significant erosion and decline of democracy, with a corresponding rise of radical right authoritarianism. In short, I predict that the US will be significantly less democratic and significantly more authoritarian.
One area of change I anticipated was further weakening of already weak ethics norms and laws and respect for the rule of law generally. Apparently, that process of erosion is already well underway (not paywalled):
Trump Holds Up Transition Process Over Ethics Code
President-elect Donald J. Trump has not yet submitted a legally required ethics pledge stating that he will avoid conflicts of interest and other ethical concerns while in office, raising concerns that his refusal to do so will hamper the smooth transition to power.
Mr. Trump’s transition team was required to submit the ethics plan by Oct. 1, according to the Presidential Transition Act.
While the transition team’s leadership has privately drafted an ethics code and a conflict-of-interest statement governing its staff, those documents do not include language, required under the law, that explains how Mr. Trump himself will address conflicts of interest during his presidency.
Since Mr. Trump created his transition team in August, it has refused to participate in the normal handoff process, which typically begins months before the election.
It has missed multiple deadlines for signing required agreements governing the process. That has prevented Mr. Trump’s transition team from participating in national security briefings or gaining access to federal agencies to begin the complicated work of preparing to take control of the government on Jan. 20, 2025.
In 2019, Congress amended that law to require candidates to create and publicly post an ethics plan before the election and to “include information on how eligible presidential candidates will address their own conflicts of interest during a presidential term.” That bipartisan law was born in part out of concerns about ethical issues during the first Trump administration.
While Mr. Trump’s appointees were required to comply with ethical codes, Mr. Trump declared shortly before taking office that he would not divest his assets, nor would he place them in a blind trust.
Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, a watchdog group, has since identified more than 3,400 conflicts of interest tied to Mr. Trump during his first administration, among them holding political events and hosting foreign dignitaries at hotels and resorts owned by his company.
As part of their own transition efforts, both Mr. Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris submitted and posted ethics agreements, pledging to “avoid both actual and apparent conflicts of interest.” They also signed the memorandums of understanding in a timely manner.
The Trump transition’s ethics documents are silent on the question of Mr. Trump’s ethical conduct.
Until the Trump transition signs that document, the Biden administration is legally barred from providing it with the security clearances needed to share classified intelligence and national defense briefings, Mr. Stier said. It also cannot give transition employees physical access to the 438 different federal agencies that they will soon control, and it cannot allow them to review their files.
But by law, that agreement cannot be signed until an ethics plan that conforms to federal statute is submitted to the White House and posted online, creating something of a game of chicken between the outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump transition.
So, some of my predictions for 2026 are well on the way to becoming correct, or are already correct. Bummer. I really wanted to be wrong about ethics and the rule of law.
One day 1, DJT will not be ready to govern, but that does not faze him or his enablers.
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