Etiquette



DP Etiquette

First rule: Don't be a jackass. Most people are good.

Other rules: Do not attack or insult people you disagree with. Engage with facts, logic and beliefs. Out of respect for others, please provide some sources for the facts and truths you rely on if you are asked for that. If emotion is getting out of hand, get it back in hand. To limit dehumanizing people, don't call people or whole groups of people disrespectful names, e.g., stupid, dumb or liar. Insulting people is counterproductive to rational discussion. Insult makes people angry and defensive. All points of view are welcome, right, center, left and elsewhere. Just disagree, but don't be belligerent or reject inconvenient facts, truths or defensible reasoning.

Monday, October 28, 2019

Millennials Do Not Go To Church So Much

A Pew Research Center survey, In U.S., Decline of Christianity Continues at Rapid Pace, reveals a drop in church attendance by Americans generally and a sharper drop by people 23 to 38 years old. In 2019, about two-thirds of millennials attended services “a few times a year” or less. About 4 in 10 seldom or never go. Ten years ago, it was more than half and only 3 in 10, respectively.


Pew comments:
Both Protestantism and Catholicism are experiencing losses of population share. Currently, 43% of U.S. adults identify with Protestantism, down from 51% in 2009. And one-in-five adults (20%) are Catholic, down from 23% in 2009. Meanwhile, all subsets of the religiously unaffiliated population – a group also known as religious “nones” – have seen their numbers swell.
The Pew results are mirrored by survey data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, also showing  a drop-off in church attendance among millennials.

Wikipedia comments on the size of the millennial population, which is large:
Millennial population size varies, depending on the definition used. In 2014, using dates ranging from 1982 to 2004, Neil Howe revised the number to over 95 million people in the U.S. In a 2012 Time magazine article, it was estimated that there were approximately 80 million U.S. millennials. The United States Census Bureau, using birth dates ranging from 1982 to 2000, stated the estimated number of U.S. millennials in 2015 was 83.1 million people.
Pew survey data indicates the the millennial population will exceed Boomers in 2019.

 

The Radical Anti-Government, Anti-Regulation Revolution Quietly Continues

Political policies that try to reduce unneeded regulation and increase efficiency of needed regulations is rational and probably appealing to most people. Of course, the pragmatic concern about deregulation is that it tends to happen behind closed doors or otherwise flies under the public’s radar. Such deregulation is typically designed to reduce government regulation for the purpose of bolstering private profit, arguably at the expense of the public interest most of the time. That accords with the fact that American two-party politics is a pay-to-play system. Most of the payers are players who want more money and power. Regard for the general welfare or public interest are usually an impediment, not a priority.

It’s a matter of morals - the public interest is subversive
Nobel laureate and economist Milton Friedman, believed that anything that needlessly reduces profits for a business is immoral. He argued that the best type of CEO was not one with an enlightened social conscience. Instead, he saw CEOs with an enlightened social conscience as “highly subversive to the capitalist system.” There’s not much room for ambiguity in language like that.

An interesting instance of how toxic that rational, pro-public interest regulation appears to be to most businesses merits mention.

The 737 Max airplane story
An article in the New York Times discusses a fairly new law, the F.A.A. Reauthorization Act of 2018. That law further cripples the ability of the FAA (Federal Aviation Agency) to evaluate new aircraft for safety and other aspects of new aircraft operations. The safety of the now grounded Boeing 737 Max airplanes were evaluated under older less restrictive laws. That limited led to the failure of regulators to spot flaws in the safety system of 737 Max aircraft. The planes were grounded after two fatal crashes some months ago that killed a total of 346 people.

In the drafting of the 2018 law, Boeing and allied interests were able to insert a couple of paragraphs that gave companies more power to challenge regulator safety concerns. Companies had been lobbying the federal government for many years to get regulators out of the airplane evaluation process as much as possible. They has significantly succeeded even before the new 2018 law was passed. The new law makes it yet harder for government regulators to counteract companies’ power to reject regulator concerns.

Under older law, the FAA did not fully analyze the automated safety system. Boeing played down its risks. Then, late in the plane’s development, the system was made to be more aggressive. Those changes that were not even submitted in any safety assessment to the FAA. The newer law shifts even more power to companies.

The NYT investigation for this article included reviewing documents from a group representing safety inspectors. The group argued that the new 2018 law would allow regulatory intervention only after a plane crashed “and people are killed.” That is precisely how it played out on two occasions. While the 2018 bill was being written, the FAA criticized the law would because it would “not be in the best interest of safety.”

Since the law passed in 2018, at least some democrats in the House had to vote for it. Also, most democrats in the Senate supported the bill, which passed there by a 93-6 vote.

This situation exemplifies the persistence and stealth that modern pay-to-play deregulation looks like and what it can lead to. In essence, ‘deregulation’ is cover for corruption and quiet passage of laws that harm the public interest more than they help it. In the case of the 2018 law, the further gutting of FAA review authority was probably embedded in other measures that were seriously needed for the FAA to function properly. That is how special interests leverage their campaign contributions (free speech rights) to get what they want. And, if special interests backed by money don't get what they want one year, they will keep trying for decades to get what they want sooner or later.




Sunday, October 27, 2019

Estimating Global Warming Costs

A short article in the current issue of Scientific American, Warming Will Cost Rich and Poor Countries Alike, discusses modeling results on the cost of global warming under two scenarios. In one scenario, terms of the Paris Agreement are met and in the other that does not happen. The data was generated by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

NBER projects that about 7% of global GDP will be lost by 2100 if greenhouse gas emission growth continues unchanged. The study included analysis of how warming has affected 174 countries since 1960. That was then projected to estimate future effects. Staying on the current path, estimated US cost is 10.5% of GDP, and Canada's loss is projected to be 13%. But if terms of the Paris Agreement are met now, GDP loss would be less than about 3% for the US and Canada.

The researchers believe the GDP loss estimates are conservative because their model because it does not consider increased climate extreme variations that are expected in the future.



It is reasonable to expect that models of economic cost will be refined as more information about the effects of global warming continues to accumulate.

Saturday, October 26, 2019

Why Voter Turnout Is So Low in the United States



ALEXANDER KEYSSAR

INTERVIEW BY
Adele Oltman

From the very founding of the United States, elites have worked to disenfranchise and suppress voters — because they know a mobilized electorate of workers and poor people would transform the country.

In recent years, states around the country have passed numerous laws restricting the right to vote. But this effort to contract the franchise — a fundamental assault on political democracy — is not unprecedented. Since the founding of the United States, elites have used their power to disenfranchise and suppress the vote of those they’d rather not see at the ballot box.
In the following interview, historian Alexander Keyssar, author of The Right to Vote: The Contested History of Democracy in the United States, discusses the long history the franchise fights in the United States with historian Adele Oltman. The interview has been edited for length and clarity.
TO READ THE ENTIRE INTERVIEW: