Plausible future scenarios

In the wake of the vast damage that Trump and MAGA elites have caused to democracy, the rule of law, the federal government, and our society and economy, one can reasonably see three possibilities for the US. They are (1) mostly likely, we muddle along and continue to slowly decline like we are now, (2) maybe less likely, we enter a period of accelerated and mostly unchecked decline into some miserable, poverty-riddled state of affairs for most Americans, or (3) maybe least likely, America makes some form of a comeback and works toward some semblance of the America’s old position in the world while restoring respect for democracy, the rule of law, civil liberties and the public interest. At the moment it is impossible to know which path we will take.

America’s former allies, now alienated, insulted, and attacked by Trump with his seething hate of democracy and rule of law, might be coaxed back into an at least somewhat friendly but still rather distrustful state of affairs. Some serious apologies will be needed. Of course, that’s something that Trump and MAGA elites are incapable of.

An NYT opinion piece, Three Scenarios for a Leaderless World, sums it up nicely: By now it is clear to most of America and much of the world that America and what it stands for have changed. The dominant face of that change is President Trump and his determined and deliberate efforts to accumulate greater powers than the Constitution apportioned to the president, to create a cult of personality based on grievance and vengeance and to challenge every aspect of the postwar global order, demeaning allies and courting autocrats.

That opinion describes the three future scenarios.

The international system can survive with the US in a seriously degraded form even while American democracy suffers severe, lasting damage. “Muddling along” globally would not necessarily mean that Americans preserve an adequately functioning democracy. Right now under Trump and MAGA elites, the US is losing its democracy and the necessary respect for the rule of law. We are also losing our civil liberties, rights and protections.

Regarding MAGA’s erosion of US democracy, V-Dem’s 2026 assessment reports that the US Liberal Democracy Index score dropped by 24% in one year, with its ranking falling from 20th to 51st among 179 countries. Rapid concentration of presidential power was central to the decline. Those are changes argue strongly against treating the present situation as just ordinary partisan turbulence.

Unfortunately ordinary partisan turbulence is how the MSM and both main parties are generally treating the current political bitterness and authoritarian (fascist, actually) dysfunction. As gramps liked to say in his occasional moments of grumpiness, “they’re worthless as teats on a boar”. Nowadays, that description is a major understatement. They’re arguably seriously worse than worthless.

For what its worth, if anything, my AI analyzes this a bit differently.

Q1: Can one reasonably believe the three scenarios the NYT opinion posits are the most likely outcomes once cult leader Trump drops dead of whatever it is that plagues him?

Q2: Are the MSM and both major political parties merely they’re worthless as teats on a boar, or are they worse than that?

Q3: Collectively, are MAGA politics, tactics and policy reasonably described as an American form of fascism, or is that still too harsh an assessment?

Environmental degradation updates

 The term environmental degradation can also be referred to as climate change and pollution. The concept includes both global warming and toxic pollution.

Toxic pollution update

A SciAm article, Microplastics are linked to inflammation—scientists might have finally worked out why, discusses recent research about how microplastics might cause inflammation in humans and animals. The research that SciAm discusses was recently published in the Nature paper, Intrinsic physicochemical activity at microplastic–water interfaces. Short story kept short, with tiny microplastic particles in the micron (millionth of a meter) range, about the size of many bacteria, the interface or surface of the particle in water radically changes the local water chemistry. Water’s normal ability to hydrogen bond is disrupted at plastic particle surfaces because the plastics are water repellant (hydrophobic).

Examination of the chemistry at particle surfaces shows that highly reactive molecules are created and those appear to cause inflammation. Before this research, bulk plastics like water bottles were presumed to be inert or chemically not reactive. Before now, no one had looked for the status of chemistry of microplastics in water. A researcher commented that “for microplastics, this is especially important because fragmentation creates enormous amounts of new surface area”. As particle size decreases, the surface to volume ratio increases, creating a large surface area for microscopic plastic particles.

The paper reports that hydroxyl radicals, •OH, are formed in water that has microplastic particles in it. Hydroxyl radicals are very toxic. It is still unknown whether and to what extent the human body eventually converts microplastics in tissues into harmless end products. That may never happen. There is not yet evidence that the body reliably “digests” common microplastics into benign substances. At present, there isn’t even good measurements of how long different plastic particles last in the body. Research has shown that microplastics are present in human tissues. Their effects on human health are still uncertain, but early findings suggest harm, especially from chronic inflammation.

Fluorescent die in water was used to visualize the presence of reactive molecules at particle surfaces

Biological damage from reactive species

Global warming update

A SciAm article, Earth’s ‘life support systems’ are breaking down, climate scientists warn, reports that climate science experts say Earth is undergoing a “rapid destabilization” due to global warming. The SciAm article is reporting about a research paper, The 2026 state of the climate report: challenges and opportunities, that updates vital signs that track the state of Earth’s climate systems. The report is the latest in a series called the “State of the Climate”. For their report, climate science researchers measure 16 key markers of Earth’s climate. Seven of these have now reached “record extremes”. One author comments: “We are increasingly concerned about the risk of crossing climate tipping points that could lead to irreversible changes”.

The authors write: We are witnessing the rapid destabilization of the Earth’s climate system. This is no longer a warning for the future; it is a diagnosis of the present. Earth’s life-support systems are being pushed beyond stable limits, with changes unfolding faster than our ability to respond. Human activities are driving profound shifts in the atmosphere, oceans, and biosphere.

Q1: Are you comfortable with microplastics in your body doing Dog only knows what to it, for Dog only knows how long?

Q2: Are these observations that some people make about global warming and the degree of human-non-response to it reasonable and rational (paraphrasing): We are playing Russian Roulette with the climate because our climate situation could be far worse than we know because he has passed a tipping point(s) that cannot be undone if we stay on our current failing response trajectory?

Why a US-Ukraine democracy alliance is far better than a US-Russia dictatorship alliance

This Ukrainian family was running for cover but  

they didn't make it, now they're part of Putin's

huge pile of war corpses

Some MAGA supporters argue that a US-Russia alliance is better and/or Russia is justified in invading Ukraine and continuing to commit mass slaughter of Ukrainian people. Not surprisingly, those arguments ignore, deny or downplay the reasons that the US and American people would be better off supporting Ukraine.

Reasons to support Ukraine against Russia’s unprovoked invasion

An alliance with and support of Ukraine is far better for the American people because (1) that stands squarely for democracy against brutal tyranny and kleptocracy (Putin is both a murdering tyrant and an aggressive kleptocrat), (2) it signals that the US will stand by its treaties, like the one we had with Ukraine, (3) it shows compassion for a people unjustifiably and immorally attacked and mass murdered by Putin, (4) US military and economic support for Ukraine will help prevent a larger, much more dangerous war involving the US against Russia, (5) it makes tyrant’s immoral wars of conquest less attractive to all other governments, because if Russia gets lasting advantages by invading and annexing Ukrainian territory, other governments can reasonably conclude that military conquest and mass slaughter of civilians pays far more than whatever the costs might me, (6) helping Ukraine defend itself makes further Russian aggression more difficult and costly, (7) contradicts tyrant’s ideas that only nuclear weapons can keep their country safe, and (8) Russia has nothing of value to offer that comes remotely close to the vast disadvantages arising from the US doing a deal with Putin, which would effectively endorse and forgive what Putin has done to the Ukrainian and Russian people, and to people all over the world (the Russian invasion caused a spike in food price inflation).

As it is now, a person can reasonably argue that Trump broke the US treaty simply because he supports dictators and dictatorship, especially including Putin’s in Russia. As we all know, Ukraine gave up the nuclear arsenal on its territory and joined the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as a non-nuclear-weapon state. In return for that huge concession, Ukraine received assurances of border integrity in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. Putin’s unprovoked invasion blew that off. Worse, Trump has sabotaged US aid to Ukraine as much as he can get away with. That makes Trump’s America an anti-democratic state that no democratic nation can trust. But dictators worldwide can generally count on support from the MAGA party and Trump himself.

Q: Are MAGA arguments in support of Putin’s Russia and his Ukraine war rational and morally justifiable because, e.g., as Putin falsely argues, Ukraine wanted to join NATO and NATO is a hyper-aggressive military alliance that’s hell bent on completely destroying Russia and the Russian people?

Some info sources:

Freedom House: Russia – Not free — Comment: Under Putin’s Rusian dictatorship, power is concentrated in Putin’s hands. He controls subservient courts and the media, and he manipulates elections, suppresses genuine opposition. Russia’s dictatorship received 12/100 and a “Not Free” classification by Freedom House.

Freedom House: Ukraine – Partly Free

Treasury Sanctions Russians Bankrolling Putin and Russia-Backed Influence Actors — Here, the US Treasury refers to Putin’s dictatorship as a kleptocracy

Memorandum on Security Assurances in Connection with Ukraine’s Accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons — Comment: Its commitments include respecting Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and existing borders; refraining from threats or force and certain forms of economic coercion; and consulting when questions arise about those commitments. Its provision concerning immediate Security Council assistance specifically concerns aggression involving nuclear weapons.

General Assembly Overwhelmingly Adopts Resolution Demanding Russian Federation Immediately End Illegal Use of Force in Ukraine, Withdraw All Troops — Comment: The resolution passed 141–5, with 35 abstentions. The UN condemned Russia’s aggression as a violation of the UN Charter and demanded complete and unconditional withdrawal. Russia’s invasion was illegal under international law.

Press statement by the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, Palais des Nations, Geneva — Comment: Putin ordered his military to commit an array of crimes including torture, sexual violence and enforced disappearances against civilians. As the UN report puts it, Russian authorities have committed torture pursuant to a coordinated state policy and as crimes against humanity. That is part of the deep moral rot that some American MAGA supporters are defending.

Budapest Memorandum Myths — December 5 marks the 30th anniversary of the Budapest Memorandum of Security Assurances for Ukraine, a key part of the settlement under which Ukraine gave up what was then the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal. Unfortunately, Russia has grossly violated the commitments that it made in the document. ….. the United States should have provided, and should provide, more assistance, with the goal of helping Ukraine prevail. That is not due just to U.S.-Ukrainian discussions three decades ago but to the fact that a Russian victory would mean a more dangerous Russian threat to Europe and America. (emphasis added)

NATO’s support for Ukraine — Comment: This analysis argues that successful Russian aggression undermines prohibitions against on acquiring territory by force. NATO assistance for Ukraine’s self-defense include measures intended to impose costs on Russia’s military and to impair its capacity to rebuild its military. NATO wants to limit further unprovoked Russian aggression against other nations.

War Fuels Food Crisis — Comment: This IMF analysis notes that Russia’s invasion has hurt people worldwide due to increased food prices. Putin’s unprovoked war slaughtered not only Russians and Ukrainians, but also screwed people worldwide on food prices. That includes Americans.

Deterrence and defence — NATO is a defensive alliance. Its members are committed to safeguarding the freedom and security of all Allies, against all threats, from all directions.

The North Atlantic Treaty — Comment: This is NATO’s founding document from 1949. NATO is a defensive alliance, not the aggression pact that Putin falsely claims.

Link to the NYT article showing the slaughtered Ukrainian family lying in the street after Putin had them slaughtered as part of his war of aggression

Dissident Politics: Blog note

Pxy bias update

Lately my AI Pxy has been too biased in its responses to my usual politics-related queries & hypotheses. I had hoped that some permanent anti-bias instructions would do the trick. Maybe they did for a while, but seemingly not so much lately. So I asked Pxy what is to be done about this deplorable situation. (Egad! Shades of Hillary!!) 

In response I got this short instruction that might help. But now I'm back to pasting an anti-bias instruction with my queries. Help yourself to this instruction with your AI  searching endeavors. Maybe this will help some. Pxy says there is recent research indicating than instruction like this helps reduce bias.   

Q: Is there a short but at lest detectably effective instruction I can routinely include with my queries to tamp down biases, especially sycophancy and status quo biases? 

A: Evaluate my questions and premises as questions, not positions to affirm. Follow the evidence—not my apparent preferences, official narratives, or the status quo. Use consistent evidentiary standards; avoid false balance and reflexive contrarianism. Distinguish established facts, reasonable inferences, and genuine unknowns. Keep uncertainty specific; don’t let it erase a supported conclusion.

Lately, Pxy had been doing too much erasing, sucking up, and status quo-ing. Maybe this will noticeably help.