The Human Mind, Risk & Statistics

Humans did not evolve to think of risk in terms of statistics. Because of that, most people are bad at assessing risk. Slow moving risks and unremarkable events due to well-known risks are hard to assess. This chart shows relative risks of death from various causes.

Terrorism

Fear of death and injury after a terrorist attack on US soil are grossly overestimated. People estimated there was about a 30% chance of personal involvement in a terrorist attack in the next 12 months.  Emotional reactions of either fear or anger alter risk perception. This is a great example of how emotional responses impairs our ability to think rationally. Lack of sleep makes the irrationality problem worse. Emotion-driven irrationality influences policy and that can make policy more irrational.

According to one analysis, the annual risk of injury from terrorist attack in the US is about 1 in 678,000 and the risk of death is about 1 in 3.8 million.

Flu virus vs terrorists vs coronavirus

Seasonal flu that tends generally starts spreading in the fall and peaks during the winter months. Flu infections can become life-threatening from complications such as pneumonia. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated there were 61,100 flu deaths for the 2017-2018 flu season. The rate of death from flu virus infection is about 0.1%, meaning that about 1 infected person in 1,000 will die. To be rational, people would fear flu far more than terrorists, but most don't. Terrorist attacks are unusual, spectacular and heavily reported in the media. That elicits fear and/or anger and increases or decreases the appearance risk. Citing statistics doesn't seem to change that much.

By comparison, coronavirus appears to be more lethal with an associated rate of death of about 0.4%. That makes it about four times more lethal than influenza.

Infections and spread of flu is limited by annual vaccinations and antivirals that make an infection less severe. At present, there is no drug or vaccine available to treat or prevent Coronavirus infections. Most Coronavirus infections are fairly mild and resolve on their own. The unknown risk about Coronavirus is how many people will be infected. At present, quarantines are used to limit spread of the virus. If the quarantines work reasonably well, flu will pose a greater risk of death than Coronavirus. If the quarantines do not work and the virus spreads freely, it is possible that Coronavirus will turn out to pose a higher death risk.

How the Coronavirus outbreak will turn out cannot be predicted with certainty, but quarantines in the US are likely to work well. Time will tell if that prediction is accurate or not. We will probably have a fairly good feel for the potential risk within the next 3-4 months.

A Quick Primer on What a Woman Needs to Be

I just saw this 3 minute thing and thought that it is relevant. Highly relevant.

https://www.instagram.com/p/B843JEzg2Q7/

Thanks to larrymoutz for pointing this out.

Some things are worth mention.

The Commander-in-Chief Deals With Coronavirus

A 3 minute video the the Washington Post assembled clearly explains why it is reasonable to think the president has the coronavirus issue well in hand. It is because he handed the problem off to the vice president's hands. The VP has a fine record in dealing with public health matters in conformance with the dictates of merciful God and all around righteousness:

"In late 2014, health officials belatedly became aware of an HIV outbreak in Scott County, Indiana. With fewer than 24,000 people, this rural county rarely saw a single new case in a year, according to The New York Times. But by the time government agencies tried to stop the transmission of the virus a few months later, some 215 people had tested positive. 

One man seemed responsible for needlessly letting the situation get out of control: Indiana’s then-Governor Mike Pence. In 2015, when the virus was seeming to rapidly move through networks of people who use intravenous drugs, even the reluctant local sheriff encouraged the governor to authorize a clean-needle exchange, a proven tool to reduce such an outbreak. 

But, as the Times reported when he became Donald Trump’s running mate, “Mr. Pence, a steadfast conservative, was morally opposed to needle exchanges on the grounds that they supported drug abuse.” His opposition was based on an incorrect belief; while research has long shown that needle exchanges do reduce HIV and hepatitis, it has also shown that they do not encourage drug use."

But, as the president says in the video, "There's a very good chance you're not gonna die. .... We're very very ready for this."

Michigan student with lesbian parents stopped by teacher from writing about gay marriage

A Michigan high school teacher would not allow a student with two mothers to write about same-sex marriage for a class assignment.

Destiney McDermitt, 16, a junior at Hill McCloy High School in Montrose, was instructed by an English teacher on Feb. 7 to pick a topic she felt strongly about and argue either for or against it as part of an assignment titled, "Taking a Stand," she and her mother, Angela McDermitt-Jackson, told NBC News on Tuesday.

McDermitt-Jackson said the teacher told her daughter that she could not write about same-sex marriage because the topic might offend someone in the class.

"My daughter actually asked the teacher to ask the class if it would offend anybody," McDermitt-Jackson said, recalling the account of events as told to her by Destiney. "At which point, the teacher told her, 'I don't want to hear about it, I don't want to read about it and I am the one who has to grade it.'"

Destiney then texted her mothers from class and told them what was going on, McDermitt-Jackson said.

"She was upset and offended and she felt it was very inappropriate," McDermitt-Jackson said.

Later that day, McDermitt-Jackson said she and Destiney's other mother, Christine Jackson, went to the school and met with the principal and superintendent.

"They both agreed it was absolutely wrong and was unacceptable," she said.

Administrators took a statement from Destiney and other students in the classroom at the time and vowed to conduct an investigation, McDermitt-Jackson said.

Linden Moore, Montrose Community Schools superintendent, said in a statement on Friday that "the teacher attempted to avoid disruption and controversy by limiting the topics that students could choose for a writing assignment."

"Unfortunately, although well-intentioned, the teacher was too restrictive," the statement said. "We have spoken to the teacher and all of our staff about valuing opinions, beliefs, and rights of all of our students."

The superintendent said this has been "a learning opportunity for everyone involved." Moore did not immediately return a request for comment Tuesday.

McDermitt-Jackson said she is unsatisfied with the school district's response.

"They completely failed not only my daughter, but they failed all of us," she said. "They did not handle this appropriately."

She said she filed a complaint last week with the ACLU of Michigan because she believes her daughter was discriminated against and her right to freedom of speech had been violated.

Ann Mullen, a spokeswoman for the ACLU of Michigan, declined comment Tuesday, saying: "We do not disclose if or when we are contacted by a potential client."

McDermitt-Jackson said she does not believe the teacher, who the district is not naming, "has any business teaching in a public school district."

Destiney has since been switched out of the teacher's class, McDermitt-Jackson said.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/michigan-student-with-lesbian-parents-stopped-by-teacher-from-writing-about-gay-marriage/ar-BB10ofWt?li=AAggNb9&ocid=mailsignout