Coronavirus Update: Looking More Concerning

In an OP I posted last week, I cited statistics from a New York Times article indicating that the death rate from coronavirus infections was about 0.4%, making it about four times more lethal than the flu virus. The same article mentioned earlier estimates that put the death rate at about 2.3% for all of China and about 2.9% for Hubei Province in China. I cited the 0.4% rate because the higher rates were due to Chinese medical facilities being overwhelmed and many mild cases being left uncounted.

With additional data coming in from other countries, it is starting to look like the lethality of the coronavirus maybe be closer to the 2.9% rate for China's Hubei Province. An article today in the NYT indicates that about 87,000 people in 60 countries have been infected and almost 3,000 people have died. If that death rate holds up over time, the virus would have a lethality rate of about 3.4%, making it 34 times more lethal than the flu virus.

The caveat with that possibility is the same as it was for the early infection rates calculated for China: Maybe a lot of mild cases are going undetected and are therefore not counted. If 10 mild infections go undetected for every diagnosed infection, that would reduce the lethality rate to about 0.34%, which is fairly close to the 0.4% rate cited in my OP last week. The US has not had the ability to test many people, so most infections here maybe be going undetected.

Today's NYT article comments on the uncertainty: "The first death from the infection was reported on Saturday: a man who lived near Seattle. A model produced by infectious disease experts hints that the coronavirus may already have infected up to 1,500 people in the area. .... Much remains unknown about the virus, including how many people may have very mild or asymptomatic infections, and whether they can transmit the virus. The precise dimensions of the outbreak are hard to know. .... Scientists don’t know how long the new coronavirus can live on surfaces, and preliminary research suggests that hot and humid environments may not slow down the pathogen’s spread. Warm weather does tend to inhibit influenza and milder coronaviruses. Infected people may be able to pass on the new coronavirus even if they have few obvious symptoms, a study in Germany has found. .... Symptoms of this infection include fever, cough and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. The illness causes lung lesions and pneumonia. But milder cases may resemble the flu or a bad cold, making detection difficult. .... The best thing you can do to avoid getting infected is to follow the same general guidelines that experts recommend during flu season, because the coronavirus spreads in much the same way. Wash your hands frequently throughout the day. Avoid touching your face, and maintain a distance from anyone who is coughing or sneezing. .... At the moment, the risk of infection with the new coronavirus in the United States “is way too low for the general public to start wearing a face mask,” said Dr. Peter Rabinowitz, co-director of the University of Washington MetaCenter for Pandemic Preparedness and Global Health Security."

Some genetic testing of the virus in Washington State indicates that the virus has been spreading for several weeks without being detected. The point of all that is to point out that there still is uncertainty about infections and the rate of lethality. Over time more data will come in and more testing will be done.

It is not time to panic. All regular people can do is watch this carefully and take advice from real experts, but not Trump or Pence. They are ignorant.

Tyranny of the Minority: Voting in the Primary, or Maybe Not

My candidate Mayor Pete dropped out yesterday, as we all know. I voted for him a week or so ago, but reluctantly predicted I would probably wind up voting for an old white guy. At least that prediction seems to still be on track. Looks like my Mayor Pete vote went down in flames.

A disgruntled primary voter who hasn't voted yet (actual photo of real person)

Once again, the fine people of the states of IA, NH, NV and SC got to eliminate everyone else's choice before their state officially votes. California votes tomorrow, on Dipstick Tuesday, so I almost got to vote for someone still in the race. In essence, those folks led me to vote for a ghost and thus exert zero influence. Guess that teaches me a lesson for voting early.

Anyway, I think I recall an analysis that said each primary vote in IA and NH is worth about 8-10 primary votes in other states. It's a form of tyranny of the minority. Other folks have made the same observation on the minority tyranny phenomenon in recent years. Between (1) various constitutional rots, e.g., in the form of the self-described Grim Reaper, Moscow Mitch McConnell,[1] (2) a recent sharp electoral college tilt in favor of the minority Trump Party, and (3) the IA, NH, NV and SC primaries, there are plenty of reasons to feel like one is being abused by a minority if one doesn't like the way things are going.

Of course, if one likes all of this, it is good times in MAGA!! land. LOCK HER UP!, LOCK HER UP!, LOCK HER UP!

I suppose it is out of bounds to ask for a different order of voting in the primaries, maybe a regional one that lets one of 5 or 6 regions or clusters of states go first on a rotating basis. Or, maybe there could a rotating batch of 3-4 states that go first, e.g., one large population state a middle pop state and 1-2 pipsqueaks. Yeah, I know. The pipsqueaks would howl in protest. Well what the heck. People in all other states are ignored now, so why not a few pipsqueak states after all the decades of IA, NH, NV and SC telling all of us what they want. I do not care what IA, NH, NV and SC want. I care what I want.

One thing for sure, I'll be writing a position paper for my little wannabe third party recommending that the party break completely free from official democratic and republican voting dates and set its primary vote date a few days or maybe a week before the nutty Iowa caucuses.


Footnote:
1. As of a couple of weeks ago, Moscow Mitch had 365 bills the House passed sitting in his in-box waiting to be shredded. Grim Reaper Mitch blithely comments, "We're not going to pass those." Ah, the wonder of politics. Trump and the Trump Party like to refer to the democrats as do nothings. I guess that shredding bills from the House constitutes doing something in the eyes of Trumplandia. We live in strange, constitutionally rotted, hypocrisy- and corruption-tinged times. If things keep going like this, these fine times are likely to morph into a constitutionally crisis-riddled time of the liar-kleptocrat-tyrant. That will make these tyranny of the minority times look like a golden age of freedom and semi-honest governance.

A disgruntled dog, upset at the tyranny of the minority

The Jobs Impact of a $25/Metric Ton Carbon Tax

Researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology analyzed effects of the Green New Deal’s the US Green Party proposed about 3 years ago. Details of the plan were fed into the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s National Energy Modeling System. They analyzed effects of a $25 and a $60 tax on each metric ton (2204 lbs) of CO2 released into the environment. Among other things, the model projected that CO2 emissions would decrease, and the $25 tax would create more jobs than the $60 tax. This is reported in the March 2020 issue of Scientific American.

Most climate science deniers, the carbon energy sector and anti-government ideologues will probably reject the data as flawed, biased, fabricated or whatever else serves to either make it go away completely or to trivialize it into insignificance.

What Is an Internet Troll?

 and How to Handle Trolls

Internet trolls are people who want to provoke and upset others online for their own amusement. Here’s how to spot the signs that someone is a troll, and how to handle them.

What Are Internet Trolls?

If you’ve been on the internet for any period of time, you’ve likely run into a troll at some point. An internet troll is someone who makes intentionally inflammatory, rude, or upsetting statements online to elicit strong emotional responses in people or to steer the conversation off-topic. They can come in many forms. Most trolls do this for their own amusement, but other forms of trolling are done to push a specific agenda.

Trolls have existed in folklore and fantasy literature for centuries, but online trolling has been around for as long as the internet has existed. The earliest known usage of the term can be traced back to the 1990s on early online message boards. Back then, it was a way for users to confuse new members by repeatedly posting an inside joke. It’s since turned into a much more malicious activity.

Trolling is distinct from other forms of cyberbullying or harassment. It is normally not targeted towards any one person and relies on other people paying attention and becoming provoked. Trolling exists on many online platforms, from small private group chats to the biggest social media websites. Here’s a list of places online where you’re likely to see online trolls:

• Anonymous online forums: Places like Reddit, 4chan, and other anonymous message boards are prime real-estate for online trolls. Because there’s no way of tracing who someone is, trolls can post very inflammatory content without repercussion. This is especially true if the forum has lax or inactive moderation.
• Twitter: Twitter also has the option to be anonymous, and has become a hotbed for internet trolls. Frequent Twitter trolling methods involve hijacking popular hashtags and mentioning popular Twitter personalities to gain attention from their followers.
• Comment sections: The comment sections of places such as YouTube and news websites are also popular areas for trolls to feed. You’ll find a lot of obvious trolling here, and they frequently generate a lot of responses from angry readers or viewers.

You’ll find trolls anywhere online, including on Facebook and on online dating sites. They’re unfortunately pretty common.

Signs Someone Is Trolling

It can sometimes become difficult to tell the difference between a troll and someone who just genuinely wants to argue about a topic. However, here are a few tell-tale signs that someone is actively trolling.

• Off-topic remarks: Completely going off-topic from the subject at hand. This is done to annoy and disrupt other posters.
• Refusal to acknowledge evidence: Even when presented with hard, cold facts, they ignore this and pretend like they never saw it.
• Dismissive, condescending tone: An early indicator of a troll was that they would ask an angry responder, “Why you mad, bro?” This is a method done to provoke someone even more, as a way of dismissing their argument altogether.
• Use of unrelated images or memes: They reply to others with memes, images, and gifs. This is especially true if done in response to a very long text post.
• Seeming obliviousness: They seem oblivious that most people are in disagreement with them. Also, trolls rarely get mad or provoked.

The list above is by no means definitive. There are a lot of other ways to identify that someone is trolling. Generally, if someone seems disingenuous, uninterested in a real discussion, and provocative on purpose, they’re likely an internet troll.

How Should I Handle Them?

The most classic adage regarding trolling is, “Don’t feed the trolls.” Trolls seek out emotional responses and find provocation amusing, so replying to them or attempting to debate them will only make them troll more. By ignoring a troll completely, they will likely become frustrated and go somewhere else on the internet.

You should try your best not to take anything trolls say seriously. No matter how poorly they behave, remember these people spend countless unproductive hours trying to make people mad. They’re not worth your time of day.

If a troll becomes spammy or begins to clog up a thread, you can also opt to report them to the site’s moderation team. Depending on the website, there’s a chance nothing happens, but you should do your part to actively dissuade them from trolling on that platform. If your report is successful, the troll may be temporarily suspended or their account might be banned entirely.

https://www.howtogeek.com/465416/what-is-an-internet-troll-and-how-to-han