Etiquette



DP Etiquette

First rule: Don't be a jackass. Most people are good.

Other rules: Do not attack or insult people you disagree with. Engage with facts, logic and beliefs. Out of respect for others, please provide some sources for the facts and truths you rely on if you are asked for that. If emotion is getting out of hand, get it back in hand. To limit dehumanizing people, don't call people or whole groups of people disrespectful names, e.g., stupid, dumb or liar. Insulting people is counterproductive to rational discussion. Insult makes people angry and defensive. All points of view are welcome, right, center, left and elsewhere. Just disagree, but don't be belligerent or reject inconvenient facts, truths or defensible reasoning.

Wednesday, April 8, 2020

Trump's White House in chaos on coronavirus' most tragic day

The chaos and confusion rocking President Donald Trump's administration on the most tragic day yet of the coronavirus pandemic was exceptional even by his own standards.
Trump set out Tuesday to cement his image of a wartime leader facing down an "invisible enemy" at a dark moment as the country waits for the virus to peak and with the economy languishing in suspended animation.
"What we have is a plague, and we're seeing light at the end of the tunnel," the President said, on a day when a record number of Americans succumbed to the wicked respiratory disease.
But instead of putting minds at rest, Trump's wild performance instead put on a display many of the personal and political habits that have defined his tumultuous presidency. It was a troubling spectacle coming at such a wrenching chapter of national life, the kind of moment when Presidents are called to provide consistent, level leadership.
To begin with, Trump sparked concern that he will prevent oversight of the disbursement of economic rescue funds by removing a watchdog official responsible for overseeing the $2 trillion package. The move, coming after Trump ousted an intelligence community inspector general last week, was yet another sign that an already impeached President is using the cover of the worst domestic crisis since World War II to further erode constraints on his power.
Trump's acting Navy secretary quit after an episode in which he called an aircraft carrier captain dismissed for raising the alarm about virus infections among his crew "stupid."
Then Trump insisted he hadn't seen January memos by a top White House official warning about the pandemic at the same time the President was dismissing it as a threat.
He also announced he was placing a "very powerful hold" on funding for the World Health Organization, even though it correctly identified the scale of the virus and he didn't. Then moments later, he insisted he did no such thing.
Adding to the sense of farce, White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham was moved out, without ever having given a briefing, on yet another day of staff turmoil. CNN's KFile reported Tuesday that her replacement, Kayleigh McEnany, recently said that thanks to the President, "we will not see diseases like the coronavirus come here."
Trump's top economic adviser Larry Kudlow admitted that a small business rescue program was off to "a bad start" after recipients struggled to register funds, only for the President to celebrate the program's roaring success -- and to credit his daughter Ivanka with personally creating 15 million jobs.
To top off a disorientating day in the West Wing, the President presided over an unchained news conference in which among other topics, he lashed out at mail-in voting, making claims about fraud that don't square with the facts, even though he recently cast such a ballot himself. The comment followed extraordinary scenes in Wisconsin, after Republicans blocked the Badger State's Democratic governor from delaying the state's primary over concern that voters could infect one another with the novel coronavirus.
Trump's daily jousts with the media recreate the adversarial dynamic of his 2016 campaign and much of his earlier presidency and invite his supporters to adopt his narrative of events rather than fact-based critiques of his conduct. This has been a successful device in the past to cement the anti-establishment President with his followers.
But a new CNN/SSRS poll Wednesday finds increasing overall concern about Trump's handling of the coronavirus crisis following an initial spike in his ratings in recent weeks.
A majority of Americans -- 55% -- now say the federal government has done a poor job preventing the spread of the disease in the United States, up eight points in about a week. And 52% say they disapprove of the way Trump is handling the outbreak. As usual, assessments of Trump break on partisan lines. Some 80% of Republicans say the federal government has done a good job, and Trump's approval rating is steady at 44%.
Also Wednesday morning, a prominent model that tracks the coronavirus pandemic in the United States has updated its projections to predict that the nation will reach its peak number of daily Covid-19 deaths in four days and its peak use of resources -- such as hospital beds and ventilators -- in three days.
The model also predicts that far fewer people -- 60,415 -- than have been previously projected will die due to Covid-19 by August.
That model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle, previously projected on Tuesday that about 82,000 people would die by August and that the country wouldn't reach peak resource use until next week. 

A dark day in the fight against Covid-19


In many ways, it was just another inexplicable day of the Trump presidency.
Trump did mention Americans grieving the loss of loved ones in his scripted remarks, but the intensity of Trump's clashes with reporters and litany of outrageous claims seemed incongruous with a backdrop of such human tragedy with more than 1,800 deaths reported in a single day.
There are, after all, more confirmed cases in the United States than anywhere else in the world -- even if there are some hopeful and preliminary signs that the wave of infections may be beginning to slow in the New York epicenter.
The chaos and contradictions coming from the administration do not just raise questions about the White House's current management of the pandemic. They will cause concern because the second stage of the national effort -- reopening the economy and keeping a second wave of infections at bay -- will require focused and subtle leadership that can win the confidence of the nation.
No White House has ever faced the task of ensuring such an expansive economic package is properly implemented and does not fall prey to corruption. There is little in the history of the Trump administration that suggests this will go smoothly.
The President sparked fresh fears about his capacity to properly oversee previous rescue packages and those to come when it emerged he had removed Defense Department Inspector General Glenn Fine from a post monitoring the stimulus funds.
The move prompted Democrats to warn that Trump is seeking to oversee the package himself. Trump had already warned he will ignore a provision in the bill requiring the special inspector general to report to Congress on the handling of the funds.
His dismissal of Fine was the latest swipe against the structures of government meant to hold him accountable -- that peaked with his defiance of the impeachment inquiry.
On Monday, Trump personally attacked a Health and Human Services inspector general who uncovered massive shortages of vital protective equipment at hospitals battling Covid-19.
On Friday night, the President fired the intelligence community inspector general who alerted lawmakers to a report about his pressure on Ukraine to dig up dirt on his Democratic foe Joe Biden.

Trump dismisses Navarro memos

With the pandemic taking a tighter grip on the United States, Trump has taken vigorous steps to cover up for his multiple statements earlier this year downplaying the virus.
The question of his responsibility for a lack of preparation for the crisis intensified on Tuesday when The New York Times revealed that a top economic official, Peter Navarro, had written a memo to the President in January warning coronavirus could become a "full blown pandemic" causing trillions of dollars in economic damage and risking the health of millions of Americans.
The revelation undercut the President's repeated declarations that nobody could have foreseen the consequences of the virus. It also left him in a tricky spot. Either he had to admit that he had seen the warning, or if he said it didn't reach him, he would paint a picture of dysfunction at the White House.
He did neither, seeking to foster misinformation and confusion around the document designed to disguise his own culpability.
The President maintained that he did not see the memo or memos until several days ago.
"I didn't see them. I didn't look for them either," the President said, then argued falsely he had reached the same conclusion as Navarro, citing his decision to stop flights from China. In fact, Trump was downplaying the impact of the virus as recently as early last month.
When asked why he did not level with Americans about the potential impact of the crisis if his unexpressed thoughts aligned with Navarro, Trump said: "I'm not going to go out and start screaming, this could happen."
"I'm a cheerleader for this country. I don't want to create havoc and shock."

Trump nominates a new foil -- the WHO

Unlike the President, the World Health Organization has warned for weeks about the gravity of coronavirus.
The WHO declared a Public Health Emergency of International concern on January 30 after sending a team to Wuhan and to meet Chinese leaders in Beijing.
On the same day, at a rally in Michigan, the President said of the virus, "We think we have it very well under control."
But on Tuesday, the President lashed out at the global health body, claiming it had underplayed the threat of the virus and that he had got it right.
"We're going to put a hold on money spent to the WHO. We're going to put a very powerful hold on it," the President said in his briefing.
"They called it wrong. They missed the call. They could have called it months earlier," Trump said.
"It's a great thing if it works but when they call every shot wrong that's no good," he said, accusing the WHO of being biased towards China, which Republicans have accused of trying to cover up the virus.
Given the President's long timeline of false statements and predictions, that must go down as one of the most audacious comments of his presidency. It was also reflective of his own tendency to nominate an enemy and accuse it of the very transgression that he is accused of perpetrating.
He added to the confusion by denying that he had said that he would halt funding to the WHO -- a move that would be counterproductive in a pandemic and would undermine already compromised perceptions of US leadership on the crisis.
"I'm not saying I'm going to do it, but we are going to look at it," the President said.
The President was also unable to provide much clarity on the chaos afflicting the Navy, following the resignation of Thomas Modly. The acting Navy secretary quit a day after leaked audio revealed he called the ousted commander of the USS Theodore Roosevelt "stupid" in an address to the ship's crew.
This came a little more than a week after Capt. Brett Crozier sent a memo warning of coronavirus spreading among the sailors. The memo leaked and Modly subsequently removed Crozier from command.
"I had no role in it. I don't know him but I've heard he was a very good man," the commander in chief said.
But Trump also rebuked Crozier.
"He didn't have to be Ernest Hemingway. He made a mistake but he had a bad day. And I hate seeing bad things happen."

News Bits 'n Pieces



Tax relief for the oppressed wealthy
The NYT writes about a tax break for wealthy real estate developers and investors in the recently passed $2 trillion coronavirus economic stimulus package: “It also includes a potential bonanza for America’s richest real estate investors. Senate Republicans inserted an easy-to-overlook provision on page 203 of the 880-page bill that would permit wealthy investors to use losses generated by real estate to minimize their taxes on profits from things like investments in the stock market. The estimated cost of the change over 10 years is $170 billion. ..... Among the possible beneficiaries of the change are real estate investors in President Trump’s inner circle.”

That bill is here. I think, but am not sure, that this is the sentence on page 203 that's worth about $17 billion/year in tax breaks for oppressed people like the president: “(1) Section 461(l)(2) of the Internal Revenue 2 Code of 1986 is amended by striking ‘‘a net operating loss carryover to the following taxable year under section 172’’ and inserting ‘‘a net operating loss for the taxable year for purposes of determining any net operating loss carryover under section 172(b) for subsequent taxable years.”

'Nuff said.


Suppressing the vote Trump Party style
Wisconsin held its primary yesterday over objections of democrats who wanted to delay the vote. Both the Trump Party-dominated Wisconsin supreme court and the Trump Party-dominated US supreme court said that the vote must go on as scheduled. To deal with the coronavirus threat, the city of Milwaukee reduced the number of polling stations from 180 to five. Milwaukee is where about 70% of the state’s African American residents live.

The NYT writes this about the electoral travesty: “In Milwaukee — where the number of polling stations was reduced from 180 to only five — voters tried to exercise proper social distancing as they waited, in some cases, for more than two hours. But in other areas of the state, including Madison, suburbs like Brookfield, and more rural areas like Beloit, the voting process was altered but not totally disrupted, with options that included curbside ballot access and poll locations that were more fully staffed. ..... In Wisconsin, Gov. Tony Evers and his fellow Democrats pushed for a range of changes to the primary process, including rescheduling the election and switching to mail-in voting. But Democrats faced a wall of resistance from Republicans who saw political advantage in leaving existing procedures intact.” ..... To calm people's fears, republican legislative leader Robin Vos, dressed in full protective gear (gown, gloves and mask) told reporters that "you are incredibly safe" to go out and vote. Due to a state supreme court race, the Trump Party was desperate to win this election. They choose to suppress democratic votes as best they could. Vos was the key legislator for forcing the public to engage in at risk voting.

That outrage is another significant Trump Party step toward a corrupt tyranny-oligarchy, single party rule and the total collapse of the rule of law.


Bad campaigner
Shadowproof reports that Joe Biden and his campaign did not say anything about the Trump Party’s strongarm tactics to suppress democratic votes yesterday: “Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and his campaign never called for the Wisconsin primary to be postponed. In fact, they were silent as Republican judges on the state’s supreme court and the United States Supreme Court issued decisions that forced officials to hold the primary during a deadly coronavirus pandemic. Yet, after voters risked their health on April 7, Biden appeared on CNN’s “Cuomo Prime Time,” and stated, “My gut is we shouldn’t have had the election in the first place, the in-person election,” as if that was his position all along. ..... Conservative judges on the U.S. Supreme Court followed their ruling with a 5-4 decision that overturned a federal court, which gave voters until April 13 to return their absentee ballots. Thousands, if not tens of thousands of residents, did not receive their ballots by election day and were disenfranchised.”

Another blundering, feckless old white male democrat has shown what he’s got. It ain’t much.

Meanwhile, Bernie has dropped out of the race. So, for the dems it is Joe.


Positive, optimistic mood music: VNV Nation, Perpetual (combines elements of trance, synthpop and electronic body music into futurepop)


Tuesday, April 7, 2020

Underestimating Coronavirus Deaths


The New York Times writes that America is still unable to test for the virus and because of that, some deaths from coronavirus are not being counted. Maybe that is why the president has been sabotaging efforts to get large scale testing capacity up and running. Or, maybe it is just normal Trump administration incompetence. The NYT writes:
“WASHINGTON — A coroner in Indiana wanted to know if the coronavirus had killed a man in early March, but said that her health department denied a test. Paramedics in New York City say that many patients who died at home were never tested for the coronavirus, even if they showed telltale signs of infection. 
In Virginia, a funeral director prepared the remains of three people after health workers cautioned her that they each had tested positive for the coronavirus. But only one of the three had the virus noted on the death certificate. 
Across the United States, even as coronavirus deaths are being recorded in terrifying numbers — many hundreds each day — the true death toll is likely much higher. 
More than 9,400 people with the coronavirus have been reported to have died in this country as of this weekend, but hospital officials, doctors, public health experts and medical examiners say that official counts have failed to capture the true number of Americans dying in this pandemic. The undercount is a result of inconsistent protocols, limited resources and a patchwork of decision making from one state or county to the next.”
The article goes on to describe how a salesman in California got sick, was taken to an urgent care clinic several days later. By then he was so weak he was in a wheelchair. In that sad incident, doctors prescribed antibiotics and a cough syrup and they gave him a chest X-ray. The doctors did not test for coronavirus. A day or two later, his wife found him dead in bed. His wife had repeatedly asked for him to be tested, and the answer was no, no, no. His wife pleaded with the CDC for a test and she hired a company to do an autopsy. Finally, the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health tested the body and, 19 days after he died, they reported that he rested positive for coronavirus.

If his wife had not kept pushing for a test, that death would not have been reported as due to coronavirus.

The US response to this has been incompetent right from the get go and now months later still is incompetent. We still cannot test in the US, despite repeated lies about if from our chronic pathological liar president. This is what Trump Party ideology wants and gets from government, corruption, smug arrogance, incompetence and failure.


Try to look competent: Hide the data
In a related episode of Trump Party arrogance and incompetence, the government is not releasing ethnicity data for coronavirus deaths. Since this data is routinely collected, it is not a matter that the data doesn't exist. The Washington Post writes: “A civil rights group and hundreds of doctors are calling on the federal government to release race and ethnicity data on coronavirus infections and deaths from covid-19, citing reports that the pandemic is affecting African Americans at a disproportionate rate.”

The most obvious reason that death data isn't being released is that someone in government, probably the president, thinks that the data might make the president look bad. Several sources are reporting that African Americans have Contracted and died of coronavirus at a higher rate than other groups. ProPublica writes: “As public health officials watched cases rise in March, too many in the community shrugged off warnings. Rumors and conspiracy theories proliferated on social media, pushing the bogus idea that black people are somehow immune to the disease. And much of the initial focus was on international travel, so those who knew no one returning from Asia or Europe were quick to dismiss the risk.”



Monday, April 6, 2020

Climate Change: A Review of the Evidence


Moonrise before sunrise

A 2 hour video that NOVA produced summarizes the data that shows humans are responsible for climate change. It first aired January 5, 2020. Before viewing this documentary, my analysis and belief about the situation was this:

Chance that climate change is real and mostly caused by humans: ~65%
Chance that the current estimate of the problem is not as bad as experts project: ~15%
Chance that the current estimate of the problem is worse than experts project: ~20%


After viewing this and being Bayesian, my analysis and belief is now this:

Chance that climate change is real and mostly caused by humans: ~77%
Chance that the current estimate of the problem is not as bad as experts project: ~3%
Chance that the current estimate of the problem is worse than experts project: ~20%

The data is presented for a lay audience. The data comes from decades of geology, study of fossils, the environmental record and other sources of information. The evidence this video lays out evidence that cannot be denied. What will be endlessly debated is the interpretation of the data.

Most climate science deniers (~99.9%) will continue to flatly deny expert consensus opinion. But maybe, just maybe one in a thousand will at least start to doubt their own certain knowledge.


Conclusion
Climate science deniers do not have any reasonable shield to defend their beliefs. Those that do cannot rationally defend their positions, unless and only unless they want to take the risk and play Russian Roulette with civilization and maybe human survival. In my opinion, they play the civilization and maybe human survival game with a 3% chance they are right.

As usual, that's just my facts- and logic-based opinion and I am not infallible.



Sunrise after the 2003 Cedar Fire