Etiquette



DP Etiquette

First rule: Don't be a jackass. Most people are good.

Other rules: Do not attack or insult people you disagree with. Engage with facts, logic and beliefs. Out of respect for others, please provide some sources for the facts and truths you rely on if you are asked for that. If emotion is getting out of hand, get it back in hand. To limit dehumanizing people, don't call people or whole groups of people disrespectful names, e.g., stupid, dumb or liar. Insulting people is counterproductive to rational discussion. Insult makes people angry and defensive. All points of view are welcome, right, center, left and elsewhere. Just disagree, but don't be belligerent or reject inconvenient facts, truths or defensible reasoning.

Friday, May 15, 2020

Commercial Loan Shenanigans: A Looming Financial Disaster is on the Horizon

ProPublica reports that a whistleblower complaint filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission alleges that fraud in loans on commercial properties is increasing. This echoes the fraud in financial residential real estate that lead to the 2008 housing market collapse. Back then, residential home values were often inflated and the borrower's ability to repay the loan was also frequently overstated. Those home loan were bundled into securities and sold. The securities collapsed leading to tens of billions in losses for investors who bought the fraudulent securities.

ProPublica writes:
“Twelve years later, there’s evidence something similar is happening again. 
Some of the world’s biggest banks — including Wells Fargo and Deutsche Bank — as well as other lenders have engaged in a systematic fraud that allowed them to award borrowers bigger loans than were supported by their true financials, according to a previously unreported whistleblower complaint submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission last year. 
Whereas the fraud during the last crisis was in residential mortgages, the complaint claims this time it’s happening in commercial properties like office buildings, apartment complexes and retail centers. The complaint focuses on the loans that are gathered into pools whose worth can exceed $1 billion and turned into bonds sold to investors, known as CMBS (for commercial mortgage-backed securities).”
ProPublica looked at six loans in CMBS packages and found the whistleblower complaint to be accurate. In particular, past profits reported for some buildings were listed as much as 30% higher than the profits previously reported for the same buildings and same years. That is not supposed to happen. Regulators are supposed to flag anomalies like that and find out if fraudulent loans are being made. Given the virulently anti-government and anti-regulation attitude of the president and his appointees, one can reasonably believe that honest regulators have been ordered to allow fraud like this.

The shenanigans include wiping out of some expenses for a commercial building that were listed in earlier loan documents. No explanation is given for disappeared expenses. By falsely claiming lower expenses to operate a building, a fraudulent loan, the loan is more profitable for the lender. The problem is that the risk of default on the loan increases. If too many defaults happen, that can lead to another financial meltdown similar to that in 2008.

With trillions of dollars committed to bailouts, overvaluations in commercial real estate now constitute a much larger risk than before the pandemic slammed the economy. In fact, data from early April showed a sharp spike in missed payments to bondholders for CMBS that hold loans from hotels and retail stores. ProPublica comments that the default rate is expected to increase because of Covid-19 economic lockdowns.

Not surprisingly, the Trump administration is moving after lobbying by commercial real estate organizations to prop these loans up. Commercial real estate groups lobbied for federal support after warning about a possible commercial mortgage crash. In response, the Federal Reserve pledged to prop up CMBS by loaning money to investors and letting them use their CMBS as collateral. Once again, taxpayers could be on the hook for tens or hundreds of billions in bad loans.

Also not surprisingly, the Mortgage Bankers Association, representing institutions who make money on bad loans backed by taxpayers, claims they are unaware of any such fraudulent activities and have no other comments to make. Their comment: “We aren’t aware of this occurring and really don’t have anything to add.” So much for concern among financial institutions. Why should they care if bad loan risk is on taxpayers and not themselves? What have they got to lose? Under current political conditions, they have little or nothing to lose, but a lot of profit to gain.

After the 2008 disaster, this kind of corruption wasn't supposed to be able to happen again. Regulators were supposed to stop this kind of criminal activity before it became widespread. Regardless, it appears to be happening again. Coupled with corruption and incompetence, financial disaster is what a anti-government and anti-regulation mindset can allow. 

Thursday, May 14, 2020

AN ETHICAL DILEMMA: In Israel, Modern Medicine Grapples With Ghosts of the Third Reich

A Palestinian surgeon, a Jewish patient, a Nazi medical text — and an unlikely bond.

FOR THE FULL STORY:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/12/world/middleeast/nazi-medical-text-israel.html

I AM MORE INTERESTED in addressing the moral dilemma a case like this presents.

SO - given that the best way to save a 13 year old Jewish boy's life, was to use a guide through the intricate nerve pathways produced by the Nazis, who did so by dissecting bodies of prisoners  "many experts believe that most of the prisoners were Austrians condemned in the courts."

SO - is it ethical to use medical practices perfected by unethical means to save a life?

Would YOUR feelings be different if looking in from the outside  or if the child was YOUR child?

Please weigh in.


The Covid-19 Vaccine Disinformation War is Heating Up

The New York Times reports that social media is being flooded with lies and misinformation about non-existent Covid-19 vaccines. The situation is characterized by a combination of crackpot conspiracy theories, flat out lies, pseudoscience and some things that are of legitimate political and social concern. The mixing of some truth with a toxic message indicates that the anti-vaxx community has become much more sophisticated and organized in its use of dark free speech to. Propaganda that contains at least some truth tends to be more persuasive because the truth tends to deflect from lies, deceptions and motivated reasoning by making them appear more plausible. The goal is, among other things, to deceive, confuse, misinform and foment unwarranted distrust and fear among Americans.


A crackpot video
On May 4, a 26-minute video taken from a longer video entitled “Plandemic” was posted on YouTube. In it, a discredited scientist, Dr. Judy Mikovits, 62, claimed that global elites including Bill Gates and Dr. Anthony Fauci are using the coronavirus pandemic to shield a plot to expand their wealth and political power. As is usual for crackpot conspiracy theories, the theory is not accompanied by any evidence of a conspiracy. What Mikovits alleged was that existing vaccines have damaged people's immune systems, making them susceptible to diseases including Covid-19.

In 2011, Mikovits was fired from the Whittemore Peterson Institute for Neuro-Immune Disease in Reno, NV, after her research into chronic fatigue syndrome was discredited.
The anti-vaxx community seized immediately on the crackpot science video and elevated Mikovits to what the NYT calls “a new star of virus disinformation.” The NYT writes:
“Her ascent was powered not only by the YouTube video but also by a book that she published in April, “Plague of Corruption,” which frames Dr. Mikovits as a truth-teller fighting deception in science. In recent weeks, she has become a darling of far-right publications like The Epoch Times and The Gateway Pundit. Mentions of her on social media and television have spiked to as high as 14,000 a day, according to the media insights company Zignal Labs.  
The rise of Dr. Mikovits is the latest twist in the virus disinformation wars, which have swelled throughout the pandemic. Conspiracy theorists have used the uncertainty and fear around the disease to mint many villains. Those include Dr. Fauci after he appeared to slight President Trump and Mr. Gates, a co-founder of Microsoft, as someone who started the disease. They have also pushed the baseless idea that 5G wireless waves can help cause the disease.”


The crackpots get organized and become sophisticated
In an analysis article for the NYT entitled, Get Ready for a Vaccine Information War, Kevin Roose discusses the growing sophistication of the anti-vaxx movement. Roose has been following the anti-vaxx movement for years. His concern is that, due to anti-vaxx conspiracy lies and pseudoscience, a significant number of Americans will refuse to take an effective Covid-19 vaccine if one can be successfully developed. Roose writes:

“I’ve been following the anti-vaccine community on and off for years, watching its members operate in private Facebook groups and Instagram accounts, and have found that they are much more organized and strategic than many of their critics believe. They are savvy media manipulators, effective communicators and experienced at exploiting the weaknesses of social media platforms. (Just one example: Shortly after Facebook and YouTube began taking down copies of “Plandemic” for violating their rules, I saw people in anti-vaccine groups editing it in subtle ways to evade the platforms’ automated enforcement software and reposting it.) 
First, because of the pandemic’s urgency, any promising Covid-19 vaccine is likely to be fast-tracked through the testing and approval process. It may not go through years of clinical trials and careful studies of possible long-term side effects, the way other drugs do. That could create an opening for anti-vaccine activists to claim that it is untested and dangerous, and to spin reasonable concerns about the vaccine into widespread, unfounded fears about its safety.”
Roose goes on to point out that if a vaccine is developed, it is possible that the Gates Foundation or the World Health Organization could have played a role. That would play into the conspiracy theories about what Gates or the WHO is really doing and why. Also, if a vaccine is developed, people may be required to take it, e.g., before flying on an airplane or going to a public school. That too would play into conspiracies the anti-vaxx community has voiced about mandatory vaccinations.

Finally, Roose checked with academics who study the anti-vaxx movement to see if there is empirical data to support his concerns about a rise in anti-vaxx propaganda. There is. A paper in Nature that published yesterday, The online competition between pro- and anti-vaccination views, reported that anti-vaxx propaganda and fake conspiracies “will dominate in a decade.”[1] The paper did not report how many people might turn against a Covid-19 vaccine if one is developed. The modeling data projects that although the number of people who are undecided about vaccines is huge, anti-vaxx messaging is predicted by one model to be dominant by about 2033. Time will tell if that modeling turns out to be correct or not.



The Vaxx, Anti-Vaxx and Undecided Online Ecosystem


A dark big picture
Arguably, a broader disturbing message can be taken from this situation. The new normal in American politics is a coalescence of the armies of dark free speech. They are unifying in their tactics and goals as they fight for what appears to be a generally anti-democratic, authoritarian, society and central government. Given the similarity in their tactics and generally anti-government tone, it appears that the anti-vaxx community can cooperate with most other conservative populist movement and groups or even formally unite with them. The similarities of the main conservative political movements, e.g., gun rights, abortion, free speech, anti-government, etc., appear to share a mindset that strongly rejects expertise, inconvenient facts and truths and rationality. This mindset, the 'irrationalist mind', has a strong affinity for fake truth, fake conspiracy theories and an intolerance of enemies (real or perceived) or disfavored groups. The out-people and groups are perceived, judged and attacked in intolerant moralistic, often bigoted terms.

If that analysis is basically correct, America's political and social situations are getting uglier, more reality- and science-detached and more intolerant. America is definitely going in the wrong direction.


Footnote:
1. The paper’s abstract: “Distrust in scientific expertise1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14 is dangerous. Opposition to vaccination with a future vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, the causal agent of COVID-19, for example, could amplify outbreaks2,3,4, as happened for measles in 20195,6. Homemade remedies7,8 and falsehoods are being shared widely on the Internet, as well as dismissals of expert advice9,10,11. There is a lack of understanding about how this distrust evolves at the system level13,14. Here we provide a map of the contention surrounding vaccines that has emerged from the global pool of around three billion Facebook users. Its core reveals a multi-sided landscape of unprecedented intricacy that involves nearly 100 million individuals partitioned into highly dynamic, interconnected clusters across cities, countries, continents and languages. Although smaller in overall size, anti-vaccination clusters manage to become highly entangled with undecided clusters in the main online network, whereas pro-vaccination clusters are more peripheral. Our theoretical framework reproduces the recent explosive growth in anti-vaccination views, and predicts that these views will dominate in a decade. Insights provided by this framework can inform new policies and approaches to interrupt this shift to negative views. Our results challenge the conventional thinking about undecided individuals in issues of contention surrounding health, shed light on other issues of contention such as climate change11, and highlight the key role of network cluster dynamics in multi-species ecologies15.”

The researchers analogize the situation with warfare: “Support and potential recruitment of these green clusters (crowds) [undecided people] is akin to a battle for the ‘hearts and minds’ of individuals in insurgent warfare.”

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

UTILITY AND ALL THAT! Part 3


Arming You to Fight Mainstream Economic Theory by Reconstructing It Into What It’s Properly About--by Larry Motuz


Preface
This Part 3 is an unplanned-for detour prompted by many an intelligent comment which showed me such a detour was necessary.

What I will be outlining here can be summed up as: In production, the ‘utility’ of adding inputs to a fixed factor of production --like more feed to a cow-- is the increase of production -- gallons of milk-- arising from adding more units of the feed input to a fixed factor --er, the cow.

Diminishing returns will be observed as more units of the variable input {feed} are added to the fixed factor {a cow}. What’s generally see across all production, when more and more of any one variable input is used with a fixed factor of production, is an experience known as ‘diminishing returns’. Total production initially increases at diminishing rates of increase up to a production level that is a maximum. It then falls at increasing rates if more units of the variable input are then utilized.

There are, in other words, limits beyond which adding more of a variable input is not only not better but actually worsens production.

All this means is that, up to some point, additional installments of a variable factor to any fixed factor, are initially useful to raise production levels to a peak reached at some level of variable input utilization. This means that 'more is not always better’. There are productively optimal total additions of units of variable input to a fixed factor of production. Such productively optimal utilization of a variable input with fixed factors of production is not necessarily also economically optimal. {What's economically optimal depends upon the variable input costs and the expected revenues from the added output.)

In a nutshell, the same 'law' of diminishing returns was historically applied to consumption --the idea being that when more goods were added to a factor of consumption {the 'consumer': an implied person}, then the total production of subjective pleasure or satisfaction (measured somehow), just had to show the same kinds of diminishing returns up to subjective pleasure/satisfaction maximums.[See Note 1 below.]


Utility In Production

When the ‘utility’ of added inputs into production is defined as their contribution to total production, a benefit that is objectively measured, we can say that there appears to be a ‘law’ of diminishing incremental or marginal utility with respect to variable inputs applied to a fixed ‘production unit’.

Aside: A very serious set of issues arises when this law of diminishing returns --Viz., the diminishing returns of inputs in production when all other inputs, fixed or variable, are left unchanged -- is applied to ‘consumers’ who, in effect, ‘experience’ :: that is, internally produce :: levels of subjective pleasure or subjective satisfaction within themselves when buying goods. To be clear, when a good 'brings' subjective pleasure or satisfaction, it is necessarily the consumer who is producing that level of subjective pleasure or satisfaction within himself or herself. However, let's simply note here that this 'manufactured output' so to speak can neither be bought nor sold itself, so it is unlike objective production where both inputs and outputs have prices. Implicit notions that a 'consumer' is akin to manufacturers of objective goods and services sold in markets cannot apply. And, if we abandon that implicit notion, we must also abandon all of modern economic theory concerning the 'consumer' and 'consumer' welfare in aggregate.



The Shape of Objective Utility in Production

Utility in production is a value-in-use measure (a.k.a. a benefit-from-use measure). That's because utility in production is a recorded 'beneficial' change in output taking place when utilizing more units of a variable input when other production factors, fixed or variable, are unchanged. This is an 'other things being equal' condition also known as a ceteris paribus condition.

If we add units of fertilizer to an acre of farmland, these add more to the crop's size until a point where adding still more fertilizer begins to reduce the amount grown. Likewise, if you add more grave diggers with shovels to dig at a grave site, adding more diggers first helps. At some point, 'more' just get in each others' way. This adds to the time and monies spent digging this one grave if it gets dug at all.

So, and generally, adding more of an input to a fixed task or a fixed factor of production --like an acre of land or a machine-- leads to increases in total production only up to a point. After that, adding more decreases total production.

Let's get back to a cow and its feed for instance.

Kenneth Boulding in his book Economic Analysis, 3rd Edition,1955, illustrated how a cow's milk production (measured in gallons of milk) altered when a particular feed concentrate supplemented that cow’s diet.

That illustration (below) shows that adding units of concentrated feed initially led to increasing milk production and then to falling milk production.

Feed Concentrate (lbs)......0......4........8.......12.......16......20......24
Milk Production (gals.).....1......2.0.....2.8.....3.5.....3.9.....4.0.....3.9
Production rise (gals.)..... .0......1.0.....0.8.....0.7.....0.4.....0.1.....-0.1

Clearly, the cow’s total milk production rises in ever smaller amounts for every one 4 lb. unit of concentrated feed given to it.

Plotted on a graph, the total milk production per additional 4lb. unit of feed concentrate resembles a concave-downwards facing curve which rises from the origin (after adjusting for the +1 production before adding units of this input) to a maximum output of three gallons (4-1) when five units are utilized; and, falling to zero with more inputs (with 10 4lb. units utilized. [See Note 2 below.]

Obviously, this farmer would never give this cow more than five 4 lb Units of feed concentrate since the cow's total milk production declines when more is used. An economist would not only agree with the farmer but, also like that farmer, would also ask if the successive increases in revenues from sales of the increases in output equaled the additional costs of the feed concentrate feed. I.e., the farmer asks, "Is it worth my while?", which economists translate into, "Are the added revenues at the margin at least equal to the added costs of inputs at the margin? Both, in different ways, would say that the amounts to be used are ‘economically optimal’ only when the added costs of feed concentrate inputs are just equal to the added revenues obtained from the sale of the added output. (I need not get into how economists calculate this here but I will note that the 'marginal revenue product' curve for productive inputs is also the ‘demand’ curve business have for those variable inputs.)


All told, the rising sections of production curves show diminishing returns per added unit of the variable input, whereas falling sections show increasingly large reductions in total output per added unit. In practice this means that economists (and often engineers) tend to look at the former, rising sections when conducting analysis into the costs and benefits associated with variable inputs. [Only economists formally then derive 'demand curves' as such, however.]

Finally, objective utility for any producer is always measured as an increase in total output associated with increasing a variable input to a fixed factor of production while also holding other variable inputs fixed. This is its value-in-use, a.k.a. the benefit-from-use of variable inputs in this fashion.

I note here that marginal revenue product curve mentioned earlier measures the money value of the marginal gains in output when sold at market prices producers can sell for.


Subjective Utility in Consumption

These above matters become important when looking at how the ‘law of diminishing marginal utility’ has been shifted from being about producers’ demand for variable inputs into their production (always measurable units of output) to being about ‘consumers’ and their ‘demands’ for variable inputs :: goods :: which, upon their purchase, lead to their experiencing/(producing within themselves) increasing yet always immeasurable subjective levels of pleasure/satisfaction -- much like a cow producing invisible milk only it knows about and able to enjoy.


All people, including economists, agree that there is no objectively measurable unit of pleasure or satisfaction as an ‘output’ that ‘consumers’ produce within themselves when they buy goods. In effect, however, economic theory treats the consumer as a fixed factor of production, each of which then uses various goods as variable inputs to produce/generate subjective pleasures/satisfactions for itself by buying those 'goods'.{See Note 3 below.]

The ‘consumer’ uses variable inputs {‘goods’} by purchasing them. The 'consumer', in effect, is analogous to a farmer's cow to which feed is added or a machine to which variable inputs are added. All in all, the consumer is a fixed factor for the production of subjective pleasure/satisfaction.

Since this 'output', being subjective, can't be seen by anyone, it is simply presumed that 'diminishing returns' set in for such subjective pleasure/satisfaction production as can be observed for goods-production. Ignored in this transformation of consumers into fixed factors of production is the reality that there is no market for their subjective 'outputs'. Measurable benefits from the usages consumers have for the goods they purchase have vanished completely by assumption. And, of more than casual interest, somehow, values-in-use have become transmogrified into values-in-exchange despite the utter absence of any markets for the 'output' of the consumer.

Which means that whereas producers of commodities have a demand for variable inputs which is derived from their ability to generate sales for their outputs, for, for such producers, their marginal revenue from sales product curve, a.k.a, the marginal revenue product curves, are their demand curves for variable inputs, whereas consumers have no equivalent marginal revenues from sales for their 'outputs'.

All in all, this means that the demand for variable goods which consumers have must be very different from the demand producers have for variable inputs. If, indeed, a consumer cannot sell any of his or her 'subjective output', then this effectively means that some other way of constructing a consumer's demand curve for 'input' :: goods :: had to be constructed.

It was! It was an entirely fictional way of constructing consumer demand curves for goods, a way unlike any which might be applied to any producers of marketable goods. This was a construction that depended upon constructing seemingly plausible narratives which magically hid the problems work, much like the patterned distractions of magicians when performing tricks before their audiences. Such 'tricks' astound only as long as the subterfuge underlying them remain unrevealed.

Revealing the subterfuge is what the next installment, "Demand and All That!', will do.

This detour is over. I hope those commenters who prompted it now understand that I have not thrown out the 'law of diminishing marginal utility' except as it has been misapplied to consumers purchasing goods. The value-in-usages which goods have has been cavalierly set aside as if these are incapable of measurement or simply do not matter. They cannot be subsumed under headings like subjective pleasure/satisfaction when realizing these depends not merely upon preferences but also upon the measurable quantities of the various benefits being sought by consumers. And, though there are definite meanings to demand and to aggregate demand, those are not the meanings found in economic textbooks. An entirely new construction is required. It is one Keynes hinted at in his General Theory. It is one actually used practically, if only with a subliminal awareness, by many a practicing economist, especially 'unorthodox' ones who are always adjusting their 'blackboard economics'.

And it is one I intend to unfold.

NOTES:

Note 1. Today 'more is always better' in current consumer theory. There are no levels wherein consumers become, say, satiated, simply not wanting any more of a good. No limits as it were. No enough! No harm associated with passing any limits. Which means that somehow the current theory left its initial constructions of 'Utility' behind. Leaving that last issue for another day, I'll talk here only about the early construction of utility as subjective pleasure or satisfaction.)Note 1: Limits vanished because, uniquely in monetary economies, all goods are perfect price-substitutes for each other monetarily (if we can ignore possible transactions costs associated with finding buyers and delivering goods to them). The price architecture goods have in relation to each other and captured by their relative currency prices is a creation of monetary economies. This fact has not been fully appreciated by either orthodox or unorthodox economists. The misunderstandings this has caused so entered the modern analysis of consumer ‘choice’ behavior as to render it not merely useless, but also harmful to any proper understanding of consumer behavior, choice and welfare .]

Note 2. The formal shape which the plot traces is that of a curve which faces downwards: namely, a concave-downwards facing parabola. Mathematical functions having the form y = f(x> = ax*x + bx +c are either concave upwards or concave downwards. Concave-downwards facing curves which rise from the origin to a peak to then fall back to Zero at some greater value for x have the mathematical form y = f(x) = bx-ax*x (for ‘c”, a constant in all such cases, is zero). Since y = U = f(x> = bx-ax*x that, without any bells and whistles, is the general form of total production 'curves' when only one variable input is changing.]

Note 3. It is vital to all consumer theory in economics that, at the moment of purchase, the consumer perfectly foresees all of the future pleasures the 'good' will provide to him or her, bringing this foresight into the moment his or her decision is made about buying the 'good' or 'goods' up for purchase. It is vital because, without that assumption being made, the demand curve of the consumer relative to the prices that the consumer faces for 'inputs' cannot be derived. Therefore, if for any reason the consumer cannot see all of the future pleasures to be experienced with/produced by the 'good or goods, and if the total production of subjective pleasure or satisfaction does not exhibit diminishing returns, all consumer theory cannot provide any guidance to the levels of welfare consumers are said to have within the Theory of the Consumer. In short, if either is false, so is all of consumer theory.

Links to previous articles in this series:
1. Economics And All That! https://dispol.blogspot.com/2020/04/economics-and-all-that.html
2. Utility And All That! Part 1. https://dispol.blogspot.com/2020/04/utility-and-all-that-part-1.html
3. Utility And All That! Part 2. https://dispol.blogspot.com/2020/05/utility-and-all-that-part-2.html