Rewriting the Constitution to Balance the Budget

Apparently most conservatives and populists want to re-write some or all of the US constitution. One mechanism to do that is via a constitutional convention.

Article V of the United States Constitution says that when two thirds (currently 34) of state legislatures apply for a constitutional convention proposing amendments, Congress has to convene one. That is up from 28 states at the beginning of 2017 (see map below).[1] Congress first determines if a convention has actually been triggered. It does that by counting the state applications. The counting process is called aggregating applications. One unknown is whether different kinds of state applications can all be lumped together or aggregated, or whether they have to be of the same kind. Some state applications (plenary applications) are open-ended and ask for the entire constitution to be open to amendments. Other state applications just call for specific amendments.

Presently, 27 state legislatures have applications that propose a balanced budget amendment. Six states are calling for a plenary convention. Thus, if aggregation allowed, probably 33 of the 34 applications needed to call a convention are present. Radical far right anti-government groups such as the The Federalist Society want all applications to be aggregated, and when the total reaches 34, a convention convened to consider a constitutional balanced budget amendment, but not for a plenary reconsideration of the entire constitution.

If a balanced budget amendment is baked into the constitution by a convention, the effects of that would probably be enormous. The impact will be dictated by how balanced spending is to be attained. Regardless of the details, federal spending would need to be drastically cut. Even before the Covid-19 pandemic hit, the president and GOP members of congress increased the federal debt by cutting taxes without commensurate spending cuts. That fiscal irresponsibility was during a decade-long economic recovery. Cuts during a recession would need to be large to balance the budget and pay for existing federal debt. According to one source, on-the-books debt for 2020 is projected to reach $23.8 trillion.[2] To balance the budget, millions of Americans will feel real pain and hunger.

The GOP has made its hostility to most domestic spending clear. If the GOP gets its way, social security, medicare, medicaid food stamps and probably all other non-military spending would be reduced or in some cases might be entirely eliminated. Democrats would oppose that and would probably demand major defense spending cuts in reasonable parity with domestic spending cuts. If a balanced budget ever came to pass, the ensuing political disputes would be a food fight of epic proportions. The balanced budget amendment is the Trojan Horse the GOP wants to sneak in on to decimate domestic spending and the federal government.

Footnote:
1. The 2017 article comments on the conservative strategy to gut government domestic spending programs:

Most of the resolutions enacted in the last three years add a final clause: “together with any related and appropriate fiscal constraints.” That language opens the door to any constitutional amendments that a convention might decide fit under this broad rubric, including placing a rigid ceiling on federal spending so that all (or virtually all) deficit reduction has to come from cutting federal programs such as Social Security or Medicare, with little or none coming from revenue-raising measures. Such a ceiling would reduce or eliminate any pressure to produce deficit reduction packages that pair spending reductions with increased revenue from closing unproductive special-interest tax loopholes or from combating tax avoidance by powerful corporations.

2. Off-the books debt is unfunded liabilities the federal government has incurred over the decades. It includes things like pension obligations for federal retirees. It is hard to estimate and some politicians lie about it to advance their ideological or political agendas. In 2013, one source estimated the off-the-books liability to be about $70 trillion. A 2017 estimate put the total at $210 trillion. Whatever the real number might be, it is huge. Under a balanced budget amendment, congress will have no choice but to renege on most of those promised obligations. Those people will face real pain and hunger as their pensions vaporize under the intense heat of a balanced budget. 

Vote-by-Mail vs Vote-in-Person vs Absentee Voting

“Mail ballots are a very dangerous thing for this country, because they’re cheaters. They're fraudulent in many cases.” -- Donald Trump commenting in April 2020 without any evidence of voter fraud, a few weeks after he cast his absentee ballot in Florida’s primary

“They had things, levels of voting that if you’d ever agreed to it, you’d never have a Republican elected in this country again.” -- Donald Trump referring to the Democrats’ proposals to expand vote-by-mail in response to the Covid-19 pandemic on Fox & Friends in March 2020

An article in Wired magazine last month, The Weird Partisan Math of Vote-by-Mail, discussed the differences between the two. The article noted that research indicates vote-by-mail doesn’t help Democrats. That raises the question of why Republicans oppose it.

Wired explained the vote-by-mail situation as in three schemes. Seven states use traditional absentee balloting. That requires voters to give a reason why they can’t vote in person. That is the most restrictive scheme. The no-excuse absentee scheme is less restrictive and allows anyone can vote if they request a ballot. That scheme or some variation of it applies to about half of the states. The least restrictive scheme is  universal vote-by-mail. Five states, Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah, and Washington, use that scheme. So do many counties in California. Under universal vote-by-mail, state government automatically mails a ballot to every registered voter, and voters then (1) have about two weeks to mail the ballot back, or (2) they can drop it off in person by election day.

Wired comments that the effect of universal vote-by-mail increases voter turnout. Some research indicates that when voting is more convenient, more people vote. Effects of vote-by-mail are complex. Sometimes it favored republicans and sometimes democrats.  Younger people tend to vote more if vote-by-mail is available. A not yet published paper that has been submitted for peer-review draws these conclusions:

We collect data from 1996-2018 on all three U.S. states who implemented universal vote-by-mail in a staggered fashion across counties, allowing us to use a difference-in-differences design at the county level to estimate causal effects. We find that: (1) universal vote-by-mail does not appear to affect either party’s share of turnout; (2) universal vote-by-mail does not appear to increase either party’s vote share; and (3) universal vote-by-mail modestly increases overall average turnout rates, in line with previous estimates. All three conclusions support the conventional wisdom of election administration experts and contradict many popular claims in the media.

Wired interviewed the lead author, Daniel Thompson, who indicated that a small advantage may be present for democrats, but the data is uncertain on that point:

“After they controlled for those trends, the Democratic advantage shrunk to either 0.9 or 1 percent—with a 0.4 or 0.5 percent confidence interval. That is indeed small—but is it really “neutral”? ‘We can’t rule out that there are some small effects,’ said Thompson. ‘But given the level of uncertainty, we can’t even say that the effect is greater than zero with a high degree of confidence.’” (emphasis added)

The situation is just as complicated for states that want to expand absentee voting. In Wisconsin’s primary this year, democrats worked to expand absentee voting and it benefited them. But in Florida, with its long tradition of absentee voting, Republicans constitute a bigger share of absentee votes.

A research article published in 2004 looked at the effect of Oregon’s universal vote-by-mail (VBM) scheme. That analysis indicated that VBM did not change voter any of several voting behaviors very much. The data indicated that Democrats were somewhat less successful at mobilizing their non-voters than Republicans were.

Public opinion generally supports VBM. Recent polling indicated that about 80% of democrats, 64% of independents, and 54% of Republicans support voting by mail. So if one is willing to give weight to public opinion, VBM is an acceptable way to proceed, at least during the pandemic.[1] It doesn't seem likely that widespread VBM and/or absentee voting is likely to have a major effect on election outcomes.

Footnote:

1. My preference is to establish universal, mandatory voting by whatever means the states want. Unexcused non-voting would trigger a progressive tax penalty that increases for voters with higher incomes. Australia has such a mandatory scheme and it works fine there. Some research indicates that mandatory people tends to lead to better-informed voters and voting.

A 2015 research paper commented on the voter knowledge phenomenon:  

“Compulsory voting is assumed to have both primary and secondary effects on citizens' political behaviour. While compulsion increases voter turnout, its effects on political engagement, democratic satisfaction, and electoral advantage are still debated. This study hypothesizes that compulsory voting increases citizens’ political knowledge, either because voters choose to become informed given the requirement to vote, or because the process of voting itself imparts incidental knowledge. It also hypothesized that knowledge is distributed more evenly in compulsory systems. Multivariate analysis of data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (Modules 1 to 4) finds some support for the first hypothesis, and stronger evidence in support of the second hypothesis. These findings inform normative debates on the merits of compulsory voting rules.”

The Epitome of Hypocrisy

This 3:46 video expresses the epitome of hypocrisy of Fox News. It shows a series of short clips of various criticisms of President Obama. All of the criticisms apply in spades to the current president.

For context, the current president's golf outings have cost taxpayers about $134 million since January 2017. Obama's outings cost taxpayers about $12.7 million over all 8 years.

Thanks to Snowflake for bringing this blatant hypocrisy to my attention.

Trump escalates fight against mail-in voting

President Trump this week ratcheted up his attacks on mail-in voting as more states move to increase absentee ballot access due to coronavirus uncertainties.

The president has levied unsubstantiated claims of widespread voter fraud dating back to the 2016 election and has continued to do so even though he was victorious. But he took his complaints a step further in threatening to withhold federal funding from Michigan and Nevada, two potential swing states, as they took different steps to allow residents to vote by mail.

"To really vote, and without fraud, you have to go and you have to vote at the polling place," Trump said Thursday at a Ford factory in Michigan, arguing that mail-in voting is "wrought with fraud and abuse."

The president has targeted Democrat-run states over their efforts to expand mail-in voting to ensure safety during the pandemic, lashing out in recent weeks at Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and California. GOP-led states such as Nebraska, West Virginia and Georgia have made similar plans to offer applications for absentee ballots but have not drawn sharp rebukes from the Oval Office.

Experts note there is minimal evidence of meaningful fraud in mail-in voting, and some see Trump's latest round of attacks as an effort to restrict ballot access and preemptively cast suspicion on the 2020 election results should he lose.

"It's just a new variation on how he was calling into question the election results before the election happened and sowing distrust," said Doug Heye, former Republican National Committee communications director. "You didn't hear Republicans talking about mail-in ballots being a problem six months ago or four years ago."

The president has in recent weeks decried mail-in voting as "corrupt," "terrible" and "very dangerous," insisting Americans should vote in person barring extraordinary circumstances and be required to present identification.

But on Wednesday, he added a threat to those criticisms after being set off Wednesday by Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D), who sent applications to voters to fill out and return if they want an absentee ballot.

Trump initially mistook the measure as sending out actual ballots and claimed it was "done illegally."

He threatened to withhold funding for Michigan if it did not backtrack, even as his allies struggled to point to a specific law the state had violated. Experts said the Trump campaign could sue Michigan if it saw an issue with Benson's actions but argued they were not a basis to withhold federal funds.

The president has declined to elaborate on what government funding he would target and instead has broadened his criticism to mail-in voting as a whole.

Trump, who voted by mail in Florida's primary election this year, said there should be few exceptions for allowing absentee ballots.

"Now, if you're president of the United States and if you vote in Florida and you can't be there, you should be able to send in a ballot," he said Thursday. "If you're not well - you're feeling terrible, you're sick - you have a reasonable excuse, just a reasonable excuse, you should be able to vote by mail-in."

It's unclear if Trump views the pandemic as a "reasonable excuse," and it's unknown whether a severe outbreak will hit in November and dissuade voters from casting a ballot in person.

But experts said states should be taking steps now to allow voters to request mail-in ballots to avoid a potential onslaught of paperwork and last-minute confusion in the fall.

"In 2016, the federal government reported over 300,000 mail ballots that were rejected," said Michael McDonald, an associate professor of political science at the University of Florida. "We could easily see more than 1 million in this election cycle because many people are unfamiliar with mail balloting and will be casting their first mail ballot ever."

The president's latest round of attacks could undermine confidence in the electoral system ahead of the November election at a time when voting may already look different because of the pandemic. Election officials may have difficulty finding enough volunteers and protective equipment to staff polling places, and fewer voting locations will lead to longer lines.

Trump's rhetoric could have the unintended consequence of undermining ballot access for some of his supporters, experts said, noting that rural areas already tend to have fewer polling locations.

"If you want to go vote for Trump and you're not going to vote by mail, there will be fewer options for you where you can vote and you're going to have to stand in a longer line," McDonald said. "There's pretty good evidence that if it takes all day, you're going to do something else."

Trump's comments also run contrary to the action of his own party. Both Republican and Democratic party leaders have encouraged voting by mail in recent months, and state officials from both parties have sent out applications for absentee ballots so residents can vote in primaries.

The president on Wednesday also threatened funding for Nevada, where the Republican secretary of state sent out absentee ballots to voters ahead of the state's June 9 primary. The secretary of state's office issued a statement saying Nevadans had been voting by mail for a century "with no evidence of election fraud" and that the decision to primarily hold the primary via mail was done "lawfully."

Primaries in recent weeks have increasingly relied on mail ballots as voters take into account the health risks of standing in line at polling places. In Wisconsin, more than 1 million absentee ballots were submitted for the state's primary and special election in April.

Trump's cries of voter fraud date back to 2016. Even after he defeated Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, he claimed millions of illegal votes were the reason he didn't win the popular vote. The president later set up a commission tasked with looking for evidence to support his claims, but it disbanded without finding any proof.

He has since alleged that undocumented immigrants vote illegally en masse, even theorizing that they change clothes so they can vote multiple times.

But there is scant evidence of widespread voter fraud, particularly by mail. The most recent instance came in a North Carolina special election, where the Republican candidate was buoyed by fraudulent absentee ballots.

States have implemented security provisions to prevent and detect fraud, such as unique barcodes, ballot tracking through the Postal Service and signature matching.

Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and Washington already conduct their elections by mail. Oregon has mailed out more than 100 million ballots since 2000 and has documented roughly a dozen cases of proven fraud, according to the National Vote at Home Coalition.

"There's no form of voting that is absolutely foolproof ... but mail voting is very secure. The rate of fraud is very small," said Wendy Weiser, director of the Democracy Program at the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law.

"It is very easy to get caught, and it is roughly similar to the rate of fraud of in-person voting, which again is very small," she added. "It just does not happen at any scale."

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/newslocalpolitics/trump-escalates-fight-against-mail-in-voting/ar-BB14vws9?li=AAggNb9&ocid=mailsignout