Trust is the Normal Default Mindset

A 2009 article by social psychologist Roderick Kramer summarized the state of the human mind in many situations is trusting. That usually works well, but when a person is deceived and extends misplaced trust, it can cause serious personal damage. When millions of people are deceived, it can be catastrophic, even lethal. The article published in the Harvard Business Review. It addressed the matter of how Bernard Madoff managed to pull off a $65 billion Ponzi scheme and bilk many sophisticated wealthy people out of their money. 

Kramer's description is good to keep in mind when considering how propagandists and demagogues deceive and mislead people, sometimes with lethal consequences for people and whole societies. This OP is to compliment the review of the book, The Misinformation Age: How False Beliefs Spread, that I posted a couple of days ago. One reason to focus on trust is that propagandists are well aware of the fact that if they can win people's trust via one of various tactics, their deceit is much more powerful and people are easier to polarize, leading to loss of trust.

Kramer writes:

“Madoff is hardly the first to pull the wool over so many eyes. What about Enron, WorldCom, Tyco, and all the other corporate scandals of the past decade? Is there perhaps a problem with how we trust? 

I think it’s worth taking another look at why we trust so readily, why we sometimes trust poorly, and what we can do about it. 

In the following pages, I present the thesis that human beings are naturally predisposed to trust—it’s in our genes and our childhood learning—and by and large it’s a survival mechanism that has served our species well. That said, our willingness to trust often gets us into trouble. Moreover, we sometimes have difficulty distinguishing trustworthy people from untrustworthy ones. At a species level, that doesn’t matter very much so long as more people are trustworthy than not. At the individual level, though, it can be a real problem. To survive as individuals, we’ll have to learn to trust wisely and well. That kind of trust—I call it tempered trust—doesn’t come easily, but if you diligently ask yourself the right questions, you can develop it. 

In short, we’re social beings from the get-go: We’re born to be engaged and to engage others, which is what trust is largely about. That has been an advantage in our struggle for survival. 

Trust kicks in on remarkably simple cues. We’re far more likely, for example, to trust people who are similar to us in some dimension. Perhaps the most compelling evidence of this comes from a study by researcher Lisa DeBruine. She developed a clever technique for creating an image of another person that could be morphed to look more and more (or less and less) like a study participant’s face. The greater the similarity, DeBruine found, the more the participant trusted the person in the image. This tendency to trust people who resemble us may be rooted in the possibility that such people might be related to us. Other studies have shown that we like and trust people who are members of our own social group more than we like outsiders or strangers. This in-group effect is so powerful that even random assignment into small groups is sufficient to create a sense of solidarity. 

So what does all this research add up to? It shows that it often doesn’t take much to tip us toward trust. People may say they don’t have a lot of trust in others, but their behavior tells a very different story. In fact, in many ways, trust is our default position; we trust routinely, reflexively, and somewhat mindlessly across a broad range of social situations. As clinical psychologist Doris Brothers succinctly put it, “Trust rarely occupies the foreground of conscious awareness. We are no more likely to ask ourselves how trusting we are at any given moment than to inquire if gravity is still keeping the planets in orbit.” I call this tendency presumptive trust to capture the idea that we approach many situations without any suspicion. 

If it’s human to trust, perhaps it’s just as human to err. Indeed, a lot of research confirms it. Our exquisitely adapted, cue-driven brains may help us forge trust connections in the first place, but they also make us vulnerable to exploitation. In particular, our tendency to judge trustworthiness on the basis of physical similarities and other surface cues can prove disastrous when combined with the way we process information. 

One tendency that skews our judgment is our proclivity to see what we want to see. Psychologists call this the confirmation bias. Because of it we pay more attention to, and overweight in importance, evidence supporting our hypotheses about the world, while downplaying or discounting discrepancies or evidence to the contrary. 

A confirmation bias wouldn’t be so bad if we weren’t heavily influenced by the social stereotypes that most of us carry around in our heads. These stereotypes reflect (often false) beliefs that correlate observable cues (facial characteristics, age, gender, race, and so on) with underlying psychological traits (honesty, reliability, likability, or trustworthiness). Psychologists call these beliefs implicit theories, and the evidence is overwhelming that we aren’t conscious of how they affect our judgment. .... But they can cause us to overestimate someone’s trustworthiness in situations where a lot is at stake (for instance, our physical safety or financial security). 

....researchers have identified two cognitive illusions that increase our propensity to trust too readily, too much, and for too long. The first illusion causes us to underestimate the likelihood that bad things will happen to us. Research on this illusion of personal invulnerability has demonstrated that we think we’re not very likely to experience some of life’s misfortunes, even though we realize objectively that such risk exists. .... The second and closely related illusion is unrealistic optimism.

As if all these biases and illusions weren’t enough, we also have to contend with the fact that the very simplicity of our trust cues leaves us vulnerable to abuse. Unfortunately for us, virtually any indicator of trustworthiness can be manipulated or faked. A number of studies indicate that detecting the cheaters among us is not as easy as one might think.”

Some COVID-19 Data

Some data from New York City

Introduction

The following analysis and write-up was done by dcleve. I appreciate the time and effort he put into writing this up. I corrected a couple of typos but and did a bit of formatting, but I did not research or write this. My thanks to dcleve for taking the time to lay this out.

Unhappy lungs

The analysis

This is my effort to figure out where we are with Covid-19, without doing exhaustive research.
The summaries available from the CDC are vague, and US data appears poor due to limited testing, and deliberate underreporting. To get better understanding, I looked to overseas reports.
So – what is the risk from the disease? It has a moderate death rate, and is a dangerous disease, to people in every age group. But the risk increases with age. Also, there are multiple reports of long term health consequences in survivors. So both death and disability are risks.

The risk of death is skewed in many reports in three ways: by under-reporting of infections, by under-reporting of deaths caused by the disease, and by snap-shot reports before the ill people have either died or recovered. The best data on total fatality rate would come from a country which tested a lot, and reported tests accurately, and has pretty much beaten the disease. I looked at New Zealand, which had a 2% fatality rate, and S. Korea, which had a 2.4% fatality rate, as the best data sources.


The most useful breakdown of death rate by age I could find was from China. Here is a link to the Chinese fatality rate data by age, showing the risk of death if one gets infected. This Chinese study showed an overall death rate of 2.25%, with men ~1% more at risk than women (~2.75% vs 1.75% death rates). With the average from China matching the more recent data from New Zealand and S Korea, this seems like trustworthy data.

There is some additional useful data in this Chinese study about the effect of pre-existing conditions. Long-term health concerns like diabetes and cancer increased individual risks to between 6-10%. The risk of death to those without health complications was ~0.9%. So, this table can be adjusted by ~3X up for those with pre-existing conditions, and down by ~2X for those without.

However, as a statistics caveat, older patients almost all have health complications, so the oldest patient data likely tend to mix these two effects, and these multiplication rates would give inaccurate predictions for the top two categories. I will take my own guess at this in my own table below.

Death, unfortunately, is not the only risk. As I noted earlier, a significant number of survivors have major organ damage post-recovery, the most common being significant lung scarring, and strokes. I was not able to find much in the way of statistics on this. One of the few sources I found was a UK estimate reported by Vox:

"The UK National Health Service assumes that of Covid-19 patients who have required hospitalization, 45 percent will need ongoing medical care, 4 percent will require inpatient rehabilitation, and 1 percent will permanently require acute care."

I am treating all “need ongoing medical care” as long term effects. This is per “hospitalized” patients, which I couldn’t find a good estimate on. I tried piecing together bits of data to figure this out: China reported 5% of cases were severe -- and 13% had significant symptoms -- it is not clear how either of these relate to hospitalization rates in the UK, but one can assume UK hospitalization is at least 5%. Using my 2.25% overall death rate estimate, if 5% hospitalization ==> 2.25% death rate, and 45% of the 5% need ongoing care, which is also 2.25%, then the rate of post-recovery injury is about equal to the death rate.

If I assume that severe symptoms track with age the same rate the deaths track with age, then , if one cares about BOTH death OR long-term injury, one can double the death rate numbers for Italy to come up with health risk.

Here is my best estimate table:

Age Average health risk (death or long-term health issues) Risk without preconditions Risk with preconditions
80+ .........29.6% ..... 7.5%*..... 44%*
70-79 ......16.0% ..... 4.5%* .... 27%*
60-69 ......7.2% ....... 2.5%* .... 15%*
50-59 ..... 2.6% ....... 1.0%* .... 6%*
40-49 ..... 0.8% ....... 0.3% ...... 2.5%
10-39 ..... 0.4% ....... 0.15% .... 1.25%
Overall average 4.5%
Note, * is my guestimated adjustment to decouple age and preconditions

Note, there is risk in every age group, even among the healthy. A 0.15% risk for younger healthy people is a risk that most would not like to take – it is one death or disability for every 667 people who catch the disease. As a check – this is about the rate seen in the US aircraft carrier – one death in ~800 cases.

How is COVID-19 transmitted? Early studies focused on contact transmission – COVID-19 was found on computer mice, door handles, etc in hospitals. This IS a way it can be transmitted. But there has been a lot of evidence for a while that airborne transmission is the greater risk. The spread in cruise ships, even when passengers were in lockdown, shows it can go through ventilation systems. But the lack of spread within the apartment buildings locked down in China shows that larger spaces and better filtration than on ships can limit its spread inside a building. The lower rate of spread in east Asia, where people wear facemasks, vs the US and Europe, shows facemasks help. When New York and Italy imposed face mask requirements on their populations, in ADDITION to social distancing, they both turned the corner on the disease.

How to stop the disease: the strongly controlling countries of China, Taiwan, Japan, S Korea, N Zealand, and Australia have almost eliminated COVID, because they were willing to mandate extreme measures, country-wide.

The US government has not set policy in the US -- the initial lockdown was initiated by sports leagues, and then the implementation of mandatory restrictions has been an uneven patchwork state-state. And none of our state mandates have even remotely approached what the successful countries noted above have done. This is why the US leads the world in COVID deaths.

Reopening an economy only makes sense if the COVID infection rate has been brought under control, so that normal behaviors do not carry a high risk of infection. This is what the successful countries above have done, and they are opening safely. They did not reopen until the "curve" had almost re-hit zero. If the undiagnosed COVID infection rate in the country were only a few thousand, and we had tracing, the US could open safely. We instead have millions of undiagnosed cases, so full re-opening will just lead to an even more massive infection rate nationwide.

The states which have reopened anyway, have seen an increase in COVID rates. By reopening before taming this disease, they insure they will never get a "second wave" because they will never end the "first wave".

Enough individuals have noticed the difference between effective responses and the US response, and self-imposed more extreme personal behavior, that the US death and infection rates have not been nearly as bad as they could have been. This is particularly true for "reopening", where we have not seen the massive increase in infections that one would expect. This is BECAUSE so many people are not listening to their governments, and are instead trying to personally apply more stringent transmission control, to minimize their own risks of catching COVID-19. Self-protection like this, while officially re-opening, will pretty much insure a long-term economic recession, as a significant fraction of the population tries to save their lives and health.

Long-term: The demonstratedly successful long-term approach is for the US to re-impose strict national controls, but this time with masks, testing and contract tracing. This brought the disease under control in China, even thought it was initially widespread. And it worked in most of the countries around China.

A second long-term solution would be if we develop a vaccine. Widespread vaccination would end this threat. The earliest plausible dates I have seen for a good vaccine to have been shown effective are Jan-Feb of next year, which would then need to be followed by mass production and distribution, which would take months more. The earliest I think mass vaccinations are possible would be ~1 year from now. However, there have been some diseases where developing a vaccine took up to 30 years, so ~1 year to get a vaccine may be wildly optimistic.

The US policy is effectively "spreading the curve" -- distributing deaths over months and years, so that morgues are not overwhelmed. The curve would not be spreading if individuals were not exceeding state guidelines, we would instead be seeing a massive infection spike. Spreading the curve could eventually bring this infection under control through herd immunity, which needs ~80% of the population to have gotten the disease. The rational choice under a "spread the curve" policy, is to over-protect oneself, letting the rest of the population get the disease and its risk of death or debilitation, then only re-engage society after herd immunity brings levels of infection under control.

How long this would take depends on how successful people are at preventing the spread though personal protective measures. There are not very many random tests of the population to see what the infection rate nationwide has been. One recent random study in Indiana showed a 2.8% infection rate as of May. If one extrapolates this out to the US population, we are currently under 5%. If our rate of spread is ~1% per month, it would take ~75 more months for us to get to herd immunity IE~6 years. (emphasis added by me)

Personal protection if disease is untamed: The worst infection rates have occurred indoors when people are in close proximity. Cloth or simple paper facemasks and hand sanitizer help, but with long-term exposure in hospitals, the staff still suffer from significant infection rates. If one has to go indoors, exposure time seems to matter. Quick trips indoors are lower risk, while long exposure indoors is of greater risk. For longer term exposure, the meat packing plants with their high transmission rate show that masks alone do not stop the disease fully, and that social distancing plus masks helps. The cruise ship results, with the disease traveling between small cabins, show that infection can occur at greater than 6-ft “social distance” separation, and any additional distance above 6-ft is also helpful.

Personal protection should therefore be to avoid possible infection circumstances (proximity to those not in one’s household, or being indoors outside one’s household) as much as possible, and always wearing masks, and regularly hand sanitizing.

"It's deja vu all over again"

Today, in Tulsa Oklahoma, kicks off the first so called “presidential rally” of the year, for second-term wannabe, Donald J. Trump. We already know in advance that there will be a full court press on hand to cover it.

Of course, as was true in 2016, today's broadcast coverage plays right into Trump's political agenda. I.e., he needs his media foils, and all the better if they’re present, right there in the crowd, to unload on... not to mention the additional perk of millions of dollars worth of the free publicity he will get.  Yep, it's a total "win-win" for Trump.

True, like that unruly teenager who steals the car keys when no one is looking, it is important that we adults all stay aware of what Trump is up to. But is the press, by giving him such national attention, only making things worse?  Emboldening his chances of winning re-election?

We know Fox will be there, in all it’s “fair and balanced” glory. But does the "left-leaning” “lame stream media” willingly play right into Trump’s “nasty p-grabbing hands,” by pimping themselves out to Trump with such "news" coverage?

What do you think?  Should or shouldn’t the media cover the Trump’s rallies?  Will you be watching??

Thanks for posting and recommending.

The Trump Cancer Spreads in the Federal Government

Multiple sources are reporting that the president’s pick to run US overseas broadcast operations has fired the heads and/or governing boards of those agencies with no reason given for the mass firings. Michael Pack is a conservative and ally of the radical extremist Steven Bannon. Various sources are reporting concerns that the political independence and neutrality of the American voice abroad will become mostly or completely conservative partisan propaganda.

The New York Times writes:

“WASHINGTON — A conservative filmmaker who recently took over a United States global media agency removed the chiefs of four news organizations under its purview on Wednesday night, according to people with knowledge of the decision, in an action that raises questions about their editorial independence. 

The filmmaker, Michael Pack, also dismissed the head of a technology group and replaced the bipartisan boards that govern and advise those five organizations. The boards, which all have the same members, are now filled largely with political appointees of the Trump administration, including Mr. Pack as chairman. One board member works for a conservative advocacy organization, Liberty Counsel Action. 

The moves were criticized by congressional officials, including a leading Democratic senator, and former diplomats as an effort to turn the news organizations under the United States Agency for Global Media into partisan outlets. The organizations receive funding from the American government but operate independently.”

The Washington Post writes:

“Mr. Pack also dissolved the boards of the first three of those networks, which operate as grantees of the U.S. government; a bipartisan cast of luminaries including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former ambassador Ryan Crocker was replaced by low-level Trump political appointees from unrelated federal agencies, along with Mr. Pack and his chief of staff. The sole outside board member comes from the far-right Christian group Liberty Counsel Action, which is known for its militant anti-LGBTQ advocacy.  

Mr. Pack offered no explanation for his actions, but issued a self-congratulatory news release quoting himself as saying that “every action I will carry out will be geared toward rebuilding the USAGM’s reputation, boosting morale and improving content.” 

In fact, in a stroke, he has accomplished the opposite. Disheartened agency insiders tell us that the new CEO seems bent on carrying out a purge of what Mr. Bannon has described as an outpost of the “deep state” and converting it into another vehicle for promoting Mr. Trump.  

The president has made no secret of his contempt for the “disgusting” VOA; in April, a White House statement falsely and ludicrously claimed its news reports had disseminated Chinese propaganda. After Mr. Trump bullied supine Senate Republicans into confirming Mr. Pack, despite unresolved ethical questions, it was a foregone conclusion that VOA’s top leadership, including Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Amanda Bennett, would be forced out. But Mr. Pack’s purge also extended to respected RFE/RL head Jamie Fly, a former Republican Senate staffer, and Middle East Broadcasting Networks’ Alberto Fernandez, another Republican. Was it because they can’t be counted on to convert their organizations into Breitbart-like propaganda outlets?”

Given the president's corrupt, self-serving partisanship and his blatant contempt for truth, it is reasonable to believe that those taxpayer-funded broadcast operations will become radical partisan propaganda operations focused on serving to help the president’s re-election campaign and his own financial situation. 

The president can help himself financially by having foreign government and businesses patronize his commercial properties, including paying bribes to them under cover of doing legitimate business, in return for flattering coverage by America’s official but now corrupted and subverted broadcast voice. This will be an appealing option in corrupt countries and/or by American enemies like Russia and China. 

What about Russia and the secret phone calls?

On June 1, various media sources reported that the president had spoken by phone with Russian president (probably for life) and dictator-kleptocrat Vladimir Putin. A few days ago, media sources reported that the president had decided to withdraw many American troops from Germany, something that Putin very much wants to see. Putin wants to clear US influence from Europe as much as he can so that Russia can step in to fill the void that a US withdrawal will create. In essence, Putin wants to destroy all Western European democracies and convert them to a murderous dictatorial kleptocracy like Russia.

Beginning at about 5:10 of a 10 minute interview shown here, former Defense Secretary Robert Gates discusses the need for soft or non-military American power, including a broadcast voice to counter propaganda from authoritarian powers Russia and China. Gates argues that the decay of American soft power has been going on for decades, and the American broadcasting voice is now weak and incapable of adequately defending democracy or truth. Gates argues that if countries do not go to war, they fight using propaganda. Gates’ comments were prompted by what is happening with the appointment of Pack to head US foreign broadcast operations. Gates argues that we have eliminated or greatly reduced funding for all of America’s sources of non-military power.

Under these circumstances, it is very likely that part of what the US president is doing is gutting what is left of US soft power to open the door more for Putin to try to destroy European democracies and to divide Europe from the US. In return for that favor, Putin will reward the president in various ways, including financially. My guess that (i) getting US troops out of Germany, and (ii) gutting and corrupting the American foreign broadcast are the major parts of what the president and Putin discussed in their secret phone call a few weeks ago.

America is in deadly serious trouble. We have what amounts to a Russian agent in the White House, a corrupt, spineless GOP in congress and a sick society where about 30% of republicans believe the president is doing his job so well that he qualifies as the best US president.