From the Flogging Dead Horses Department Again: No Widespread Vote Fraud; Increasing Threats of Violence

This nightmare is not close to being over yet. The Trump and republican attack on the 2020 election is drifting toward violence. Trump and the GOP can now reasonably be considered to be domestic terrorists. The New York Times reports:

Confrontations have escalated in swing states, with elections officials in both parties facing threats of violence, as the president and other Republicans try to subvert the country’s voting system.

[a Trump lie] President Trump’s false accusations that voter fraud denied him re-election are causing escalating confrontations in swing states across the country, leading to threats of violence against officials in both parties and subverting even the most routine steps in the electoral process.

In Arizona on Wednesday, the Democratic secretary of state, Katie Hobbs, issued a statement lamenting the “consistent and systematic undermining of trust” in the elections and called on Republican officials to stop “perpetuating misinformation.” She described threats against her and her family in the aftermath of Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s victory over Mr. Trump in her state.

In Georgia, where Mr. Biden holds a narrow lead that is expected to stand through a recount concluding Wednesday night, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a Republican, has said he, too, received menacing messages. He also said he felt pressured by Senator Lindsey Graham, a close Trump ally and the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, to search for ways to disqualify votes.

In Pennsylvania, statehouse Republicans on Wednesday advanced a proposal to audit the state’s election results that cited [an impicit GOP lie] “a litany of inconsistencies” — a move Democrats described as obstructionist and unnecessary given Mr. Trump’s failure to present any evidence in court of widespread fraud or other problems. Republicans in Wisconsin filed new lawsuits on Wednesday in the state’s two biggest counties, seeking a recount. Mr. Biden reclaimed both states after Mr. Trump won them in 2016.  

Nowhere was the confusion and chaos more evident than in Michigan on Tuesday night, when two Republican members of the canvassing board in Wayne County, which includes Detroit, initially refused to certify election results, pointing to minor recording discrepancies. It was a stunningly partisan move that would have potentially disenfranchised hundreds of thousands of voters from a predominantly Black city, and after a stream of public backlash, the two board members reversed their votes and agreed to certify.

Trump supporters howl in moral self-righteousness about all the (exaggerated) violence that Antifa and BLM have caused. By contrast, they raise few or no little squeaks of complaint about the radical right attacking the election and threatening innocent people. Once again, the hypocrisy of Trump and his radical right hoard is blatant. Trump and the radical right is now in domestic terrorist territory. 

The election is still under severe threat. The NYT also reported that the two Republican members of the canvassing board in Wayne County have signed affidavits stating that they have rescinded their votes to certify the results. They claimed that they were bullied into voting for the certification. In essence, this could wind up disenfranchising hundreds of thousands of Black votes in Michigan.

The American asset is doing better than could have been hoped for

Vladimir Putin must be overjoyed at how well his American asset, Trump, is performing in his assigned task of tearing American society apart and destroying the country. One can only wonder what the motivator for Trump is, bribes, blackmail, love of tyranny and hate of democracy and the rule of law and/or something else. Whatever his motivation(s), Trump is now a dictator wannabe who can reasonably be considered to be a domestic terrorist.

Alexander Hamilton on Donald Trump

This is the best example I am aware of that shows the Donald Trump personality and character has been known for centuries (except for the military character part). Alexander Hamilton wrote this in 1792. This is online at the National Archives.

Objections are criticisms of the Federalist conception of government that George Washington received from political opponents. Washington listed the objections in a July 29, 1792 letter to Hamilton (the letter is here). Objection XIV is Hamilton's rebuttal of the anti-Federalist criticism that the Federalists wanted to re-establish a monarchy. Washington wrote: “14th  That the ultimate object of all this is to prepare the way for a change, from the present republican form of Government, to that of a monarchy; of which the British Constitution is to be the model.”

18 August 1792

Enclosure: Objections and Answers respecting the Administration of the Government

Objection XIV The ultimate object of all [re-establishment of monarchy]

[Answer] To this there is no other answer than a flat denial—except this that the project from its absurdity refutes itself.

The idea of introducing a monarchy or aristocracy into this Country, by employing the influence and force of a Government continually changing hands, towards it, is one of those visionary things, that none but madmen could meditate and that no wise men will believe.

If it could be done at all, which is utterly incredible, it would require a long series of time, certainly beyond the life of any individual to effect it. Who then would enter into such plot? For what purpose of interest or ambition?

To hope that the people may be cajoled into giving their sanctions to such institutions is still more chimerical. A people so enlightened and so diversified as the people of this Country can surely never be brought to it, but from convulsions and disorders, in consequence of the acts of popular demagogues.

The truth unquestionably is, that the only path to a subversion of the republican system of the Country is, by flattering the prejudices of the people, and exciting their jealousies and apprehensions, to throw affairs into confusion, and bring on civil commotion. Tired at length of anarchy, or want of government, they may take shelter in the arms of monarchy for repose and security.

Those then, who resist a confirmation of public order, are the true Artificers of monarchy—not that this is the intention of the generality of them. Yet it would not be difficult to lay the finger upon some of their party who may justly be suspected. When a man unprincipled in private life desperate in his fortune, bold in his temper, possessed of considerable talents, having the advantage of military habits—despotic in his ordinary demeanour—known to have scoffed in private at the principles of liberty—when such a man is seen to mount the hobby horse of popularity—to join in the cry of danger to liberty—to take every opportunity of embarrassing the General Government & bringing it under suspicion—to flatter and fall in with all the non sense of the zealots of the day—It may justly be suspected that his object is to throw things into confusion that he may “ride the storm and direct the whirlwind.”

It has aptly been observed that Cato was the Tory-Cæsar the whig of his day. The former frequently resisted—the latter always flattered the follies of the people. Yet the former perished with the Republic the latter destroyed it.

No popular Government was ever without its Catalines & its Cæsars.  

These are its true enemies. As far as I am informed the anxiety of those who are calumniated is to keep the Government in the state in which it is, which they fear will be no easy task, from a natural tendency in the state of things to exalt the local on the ruins of the National Government. Some of them appear to wish, in a constitutional way, a change in the judiciary department of the Government, from an apprehension that an orderly and effectual administration of Justice cannot be obtained without a more intimate connection between the state and national Tribunals. But even this is not an object of any set of men as a party. There is a difference of opinion about it on various grounds among those who have generally acted together. As to any other change of consequence, I believe nobody dreams of it. 

Tis curious to observe the anticipations of the different parties. One side appears to believe that there is a serious plot to overturn the state Governments and substitute monarchy to the present republican system. The other side firmly believes that there is a serious plot to overturn the General Government & elevate the separate power of the states upon its ruins. Both sides may be equally wrong & their mutual jealousies may be materially causes of the appearances which mutually disturb them, and sharpen them against each other.(emphasis added)

Not only was Donald Trump well known to Hamilton, both Plato and Aristotle knew him too. What we are witnessing now is not new. What is new is modern circumstances, including modern technology, specifically the power of social media to cause the storm the demagogue Trump rides and directs in his bid to establish tyranny.

Coronavirus Update 15

Pfizer vaccine vials in pizza boxes packed in dry ice

Two bits of good news merit mention. 

Initial indications of long-term immunity

The New York Times writes that some preliminary, not yet peer-reviewed, reports are coming out indicating that immunity to SARS-CoV-2 will likely be long-lasting. If the evidence turns out to be verified and true, this is a very big deal. It means that people might not need to be immunized every year or two, and instead, once they are immunized, they may not need to be re-immunized for years. 

The big caveat here is that the data is from people who recovered from an infection. Vaccines may not generate the same kind of response, so that needs to be investigated in the coming months. But at least, it is possible (likely?) that once a person recovers from an infection, they will remain immune for a long time. There may be some exceptions to that, but the data so far suggests that is rare. The hope is that vaccine responses will be similar to immune responses to natural infection that immunity will last for years instead of just months.

The NYT writes:

How long might immunity to the coronavirus last? Years, maybe even decades, according to a new study — the most hopeful answer yet to a question that has shadowed plans for widespread vaccination.

Eight months after infection, most people who have recovered still have enough immune cells to fend off the virus and prevent illness, the new data show. A slow rate of decline in the short term suggests, happily, that these cells may persist in the body for a very, very long time to come.

“That amount of memory would likely prevent the vast majority of people from getting hospitalized disease, severe disease, for many years,” said Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute of Immunology who co-led the new study.

The findings are likely to come as a relief to experts worried that immunity to the virus might be short-lived, and that vaccines might have to be administered repeatedly to keep the pandemic under control.  

And the research squares with another recent finding: that survivors of SARS, caused by another coronavirus, still carry certain important immune cells 17 years after recovering.

The findings are consistent with encouraging evidence emerging from other labs. Researchers at the University of Washington, led by the immunologist Marion Pepper, had earlier shown that certain “memory” cells that were produced following infection with the coronavirus persist for at least three months in the body.

A study published last week also found that people who have recovered from Covid-19 have powerful and protective killer immune cells even when antibodies are not detectable.

In addition to the Pfizer vaccine, another vaccine by Moderna has been shown to be equally effective with the Pfizer product. Moderna is lagging Pfizer by maybe a couple of months, maybe less, so a second vaccine might begin to be available by Q2 or Q3 of 2021, maybe end of Q1.

Vaccine manufacturing and distribution is very complex but on track for 2021

Pfizer reported last week that its vaccine was about 90% effective. Now all the data is in and the final data indicates it is about 95% effective. This vaccine is complicated by a requirement to be shipped at dry ice temperature, about -94ᵒ F. The company plans to apply for emergency use authorization within the next several day. The Washington Post writes:

At the core of Pfizer and BioNTech’s vaccine is a powerful but fundamentally transient and unstable genetic material called messenger RNA, ensconced in lipid nanoparticles — tiny fat bubbles. The messenger RNA encodes the blueprint for the hallmark spiky proteins that stud the surface of the coronavirus and, once inside a person’s body, it instructs cells to build replicas of the spike. Those harmless versions teach the immune system to recognize the real thing — in essence, turning the human body into a vaccine factory.

The technology has never been used in an approved medical product. That means Pfizer and BioNTech are inventing the recipes — and tinkering with them to increase the output at almost the same time.

If Pfizer receives the regulatory green light, its freezer farm will become a distribution center, the pizza boxes submerged under 50 pounds of dry ice and sent to points of vaccination, which will be determined by states but could include locations such as hospitals or pharmacies. By the end of the year, Pfizer anticipates sending thousands of shipments each day from Kalamazoo and a second freezer farm in Pleasant Prairie, Wis.

Upon arrival, the thermal shippers must be refreshed with dry ice or the vials must be transferred to ultra-low-temperature freezers. The specifications are exacting if the vials stay in the shippers — the cooler is not to be opened more than twice a day, must be refreshed with dry ice every five days and is designed to be used for 15 days. The vials can stay at refrigerator temperatures for five days before their contents degrade.

The ultracold storage requirement for the vaccine will add a wrinkle to an unprecedented vaccination campaign. Rolling out such a vaccine in the developed world will be challenging; doing so in the developing world could be nearly impossible. The next phase of vaccine production involves creating a more stable freeze-dried version and expanding production capabilities, for example, by finally building those bigger pizza ovens that could make formulation go faster.

Throughout the vaccine effort, government officials have projected hopeful timelines about when doses will be available: High-risk people may be able to get vaccines in the first months of next year, the rest of the population later in the spring and summer. Beneath those projections is a labyrinthine scientific and industrial process, with each node — hundreds of people’s work — coming together to bring the world closer to ending the pandemic.

This is completely new vaccine technology. No RNA vaccine has ever been developed and FDA approved for use in humans. The Moderna uses a completely different technology, which also has never been developed and approved. To meet demand for dry ice, Pfizer is building a dry ice factory on its manufacturing site. The dry ice requirement will probably severely limit the use of this vaccine in third world countries.

Double Standards: Trump vs. Biden Legitimacy

Voter fraud found in Pennsylvania!

A republican voted for Trump using his dead mother's ballot

Republicans are right -- dead people voted (for Trump) 

The case for Trump’s illegitimacy

Before and after the 2016 election, information kept coming out suggesting that the Russians were working to help get Trump elected. Facts of record including (1) a clandestine pre-election effort to set up a secret line of communication between Trump the Russian government, and (2) Trump’s unprecedented insistence on communicating with Putin in complete secrecy with no notes taken strongly suggested a conspiracy between Trump and the Russian government or Putin himself. Eventually, former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper publicly stated that “to me, it just exceeds logic and credulity that they [the Russians] didn’t affect the election, and it’s my belief they actually turned it.” 

As time passed, more evidence of Russian influence dribbled out to the public. My assessment of the probability that the Russians were a necessary (but not sufficient alone) factor in Trump’s electoral college win went initially from about 65%, to about 85% and then, including consideration of Clapper’s public statements, to ~98%. My belief was and still is that Trump has been an illegitimate president for his entire time in office.

That opinion was based on evidence in the public record. Where people will differ is in how they analyse the evidence and draw conclusions or whether they accept the evidence as real or relevant. My estimate is that most Trump opponents (~99% ?) believe that Trump was legitimate. My estimate is that most Trump supporters (~99.999% ?) do not believe the evidence is sufficient to conclude he was illegitimate. Most of them (~90% ?) probably do not believe that most or all of the evidence exists, is relevant and/or credible. 

The case for Biden’s illegitimacy

During Nov. 8-10, 2020, an Economist/YouGov poll of 1500 registered voters asked at question 38: “Would you say that Joe Biden legitimately won the election or not?” The results of question 38 are shown in the two figures shown below. As shown in the second figure, 86% of the 591 people who voted for Trump believe that Biden did not legitimately win the election. Other polling indicates that at least 70% of republicans do not believe the election was free and fair. 

If the polls are reasonably accurate, most republicans and Trump voters see Biden as illegitimate. What is the evidence for that belief? 

Many people, including republicans and journalists, have looked for evidence of widespread voter fraud or voter intimidation and major vote counting flaws or errors. So far, none has been found. A wealthy Texas republican politician, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, even offered a cash reward (minimum $25,000 for an arrest and conviction) for people to come forward with evidence of voter fraud. Apparently, the only claim so far was by a Pennsylvania democrat, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who offered evidence that at least one republican committed vote fraud in Pennsylvania. That person voting for Trump using his dead mother's ballot.[1] Two recent discussions here have detailed the lack of evidence of widespread voter fraud (here and here). At this point, it is fair to say there is no evidence that Biden’s win was illegitimate in any way.

So, is there equivalence of evidence here? Equivalence of partisan motivated reasoning? Does the evidence of Biden’s illegitimacy outweigh Trump’s? Is the evidence of Trump illegitimacy too weak to reasonably believe he really is illegitimate?

 

Footnote:

1. Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is asking for his share of a reward after he offered up a case of voter fraud to Republican Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick via Twitter. Patrick had announced that he is giving out $1 million in rewards for information that leads to voter fraud arrests and convictions.

“Hey, Governor Patrick — it’s your counterpart in Pennsylvania,” tweeted Fetterman, a Democrat. “I’d like to collect your handsome reward for reporting voter fraud. I got a dude in Forty Fort, PA who tried to have his dead mom vote for Trump. I’d like mine in Sheetz gift cards pls.” 

“They don’t want that kind of voter fraud,” said Fetterman, the former mayor of Braddock. “You can believe if that was a registered Democrat who tried to vote for Biden with his dead mother’s ballot, that would be front page news everywhere in those circles.”