A climate science update: A bit of good news

The Washington Post writes:

One of the biggest obstacles to avoiding global climate breakdown is that so many people think there’s nothing we can do about it.[1]

.... the best climate science you’ve probably never heard of suggests that humanity can still limit the damage to a fraction of the worst projections if — and, we admit, this is a big if — governments, businesses and all of us take strong action starting now.

For many years, the scientific rule of thumb was that a sizable amount of temperature rise was locked into the Earth’s climate system. Scientists believed — and told policymakers and journalists, who in turn told the public — that even if humanity hypothetically halted all heat-trapping emissions overnight, carbon dioxide’s long lifetime in the atmosphere, combined with the sluggish thermal properties of the oceans, would nevertheless keep global temperatures rising for 30 to 40 more years. Since shifting to a zero-carbon global economy would take at least a decade or two, temperatures were bound to keep rising for at least another half-century.

But guided by subsequent research, scientists dramatically revised that lag time estimate down to as little as three to five years. That is an enormous difference that carries paradigm-shifting and broadly hopeful implications for how people, especially young people, think and feel about the climate emergency and how societies can respond to it.

This revised science means that if humanity slashes emissions to zero, global temperatures will stop rising almost immediately. To be clear, this is not a get-out-of-jail-free card. Global temperatures also will not fall if emissions go to zero, so the planet’s ice will keep melting and sea levels will keep rising. But global temperatures will stop their relentless climb, buying humanity time to devise ways to deal with such unavoidable impacts. In short, we are not irrevocably doomed — or at least we don’t have to be, if we take bold, rapid action.  

Nonscientists can reasonably ask: What made scientists change their minds? Why should we believe their new estimate of a three-to-five-year lag time if their previous estimate of 30 to 40 years is now known to be incorrect? And does the world still have to cut emissions in half by 2030 to avoid climate catastrophe?

The short answer to the last question is yes. Remember, temperatures only stop rising once global emissions fall to zero. Currently, emissions are not falling. Instead, humanity continues to pump approximately 36 billion tons of carbon dioxide a year into the atmosphere. The longer it takes to cut those 36 billion tons to zero, the more temperature rise humanity eventually will face. And as the IPCC’s 2018 report made hauntingly clear, warming of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius would cause unspeakable amounts of human suffering, economic loss and social breakdown — and perhaps trigger genuinely irreversible impacts.  

Knowing that 30 more years of rising temperatures are not necessarily locked in can be a game-changer for how people, governments and businesses respond to the climate crisis. Understanding that we can still save our civilization if we take strong, fast action can banish the despair that paralyzes people and instead motivate them to get involved. Lifestyle changes can help, but that involvement must also include political engagement. Slashing emissions in half by 2030 demands the fastest possible transition away from today’s fossil-fueled economies in favor of wind, solar and other non-carbon alternatives.[2] That can happen only if governments enact dramatically different policies. If citizens understand that things aren’t hopeless, they can better push elected officials to make such changes. (emphasis added)

Footnote: 

1. The other biggest obstacle to avoiding adverse global climate changes is a toxic combination of the American Republican Party, a big slice of the American business community, e.g., the energy and chemical sectors, capitalist ideologues, crackpot climate science deniers and crackpot conspiracy theorists and decades of anti-climate science propaganda and lies that have successfully blocked most serious meaningful action.  

2. "Other non-carbon alternatives" include nuclear power (and maybe geothermal power). Each time the press fails or refuses to say or write the words "nuclear power" is a major mistake. It's an opportunity that cannot be recovered. It leaves the possibility out of the public's mind. Because it is failing on climate change reporting, the MSM gets a well-deserved grade of F. 

Conservatives elites at CPAC voice their concerns and victimhood

We deserve to know, but the GOP ain’t gonna tell us 

until after they get back in power

Then, it will be a surprise and not for the faint of heart

The New York Times writes:

.... at the Conservative Political Action Conference, the annual gathering of the right wing of American politics, the news convulsing the world seemed oddly distant. Instead, the focus was on cultural grievances, former President Donald J. Trump and the widespread sense of victimization that have replaced traditional conservative issues.

Like so many of the Republican officials who have remade themselves in his image, Mr. Trump, in a speech to the conference on Saturday night, sought to portray himself as a victim of assaults from Democrats and the news media. He said they would leave him alone if he were not a threat to seek the presidency again in 2024.

“If I said ‘I’m not going to run,’ the persecution would stop immediately,” Mr. Trump said. “They’d go on to the next victim.”

Mr. Trump had broad support at the event: Of those who responded, 85 percent said they would back him for the Republican nomination for president again, and 97 percent said they approved of his performance as president, according to a straw poll of CPAC attendees. Asked who should be the G.O.P. presidential nominee in 2024, 59 percent said Mr. Trump and 28 percent said Gov. Ron DeSantis. of Florida — though Floridians made up 37 percent of CPAC attendees.

Eight months before the midterm elections, familiar Republican themes like lower taxes and a muscular foreign policy took a back seat to the idea that America is backsliding into a woke dystopia unleashed by liberal elites. Even the G.O.P. was more than a bit suspect.

Charlie Kirk, the founder of Turning Point USA, a pro-Trump grass-roots group focusing on millennial conservatives, denounced “the Republican Party of old” in his speech to the conference, known as CPAC and held in Orlando, Fla., this year.

“Conservative leaders can learn something from our wonderful 45th president of the United States,” Mr. Kirk said. “I want our leaders to care more about you and our fellow countrymen than some abstract idea or abstract G.D.P. number.”

Placing cultural aggrievement at the centerpiece of their midterm campaigns comes as Republicans find themselves split on a host of issues that have typically united the party.

On Capitol Hill, Republican senators are debating whether to release an official policy agenda at all ahead of the midterms. The lack of urgency was encapsulated in a statement by Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, who dismissed a question about what Republicans would do if they took back Congress in 2022. “That is a very good question,” Mr. McConnell said. “And I’ll let you know when we take it back.”

In lieu of a united policy, Republicans are hoping that a grab bag of grievances will motivate voters who are dissatisfied with Mr. Biden’s administration. At CPAC, Republicans argued that they were the real victims of Mr. Biden’s America, citing rising inflation, undocumented immigration at the Mexican border and liberal institutions pushing racial diversity in hiring and education.

Every speaker emphasized personal connections to Mr. Trump, no matter how spurious, while others adopted both his aggrieved tone and patented hand gestures. 

Speakers largely brushed off the war in Ukraine, beyond blaming Mr. Biden, and on Friday few people mentioned Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson, Mr. Biden’s new choice for the Supreme Court.

John Schnatter, the pizza magnate who in 2018 resigned as chairman of the Papa John’s franchise after using a racial slur in a comment about Black people during a conference call, mingled among the crowd, saying he was among those unfairly canceled. Senator Rick Scott of Florida warned of “woke, government-run everything.”  

At CPAC, there was no shortage of stories about the horrors of cultural and political cancellations — though the speakers offered scant evidence of actual suffering.

Representative Jim Banks of Indiana, after saying he would “never, ever apologize for objecting” to Mr. Biden’s victory on Jan. 6, said he and Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio were victimized when they were removed from the House committee investigating that day’s attack on the United States Capitol in 2021.

“We both got canceled and kicked off the committee by Nancy Pelosi,” Mr. Banks said.

Regarding the unwoke, government hating liar and hypocrite Rick Scott, this is some of the introduction of his recently released 11 point plan to save America from the evil, radical socialist Democrats:

The militant left now controls the entire federal government, the news media, academia, Hollywood, and most corporate boardrooms – but they want more. They are redefining America and silencing their opponents.

Among the things they plan to change or destroy are: American history, patriotism, border security, the nuclear family, gender, traditional morality, capitalism, social responsibility, opportunity, rugged individualism, Judeo-Christian values, dissent, free speech, color blindness, law enforcement,  religious liberty, parental involvement in public schools, and private ownership of firearms.

Is this the beginning of the end of America? Only if we allow it to be.

The Biden Administration’s unprecedented combination of radical left-wing policies and gross incompetence is bringing great harm to the American people. Roaring inflation, the dangerous mismanagement of our border, the disastrous escalation of spending and debt, the shamefully inept withdrawal from Afghanistan, the use of public schools for left-wing indoctrination, and the incredible lawlessness on our streets… Americans are angry, and rightfully so. 

I’ll warn you; this plan is not for the faint of heart. 

It will be ridiculed by the ‘woke’ left, mocked by Washington insiders, and strike fear in the heart of some Republicans. At least I hope so.

It is clear that Republican Party elites with their radical fundamentalist Christian nationalism and radical laissez-faire capitalism have declared all-out culture war. So is any recognition of any the responsibility the Republican Party has for the messes it helped create and now complains bitterly of. They don't even pretend that policy is important or relevant. All that counts is power and wealth. 

Self-proclaimed GOP elite victims are intent on overthrowing democracy, the rule of law, civil liberties and secular government, schools and society. They intend to replace all of with brutal fundamentalist Christian Sharia law and autocratic kleptocratic laissez-faire capitalism. Scott is right about one thing. The Republican plan for America is not for the faint of heart. It is brutal, cruel, intolerant and bigoted. 

Oh yeah, to hell with Papa John's pizza. And papa John. 

Republican lies and irrational 

scare mongering

Escape plan…

How does Putin get out of Ukraine and still save face, something I’m sure he cares about?  Float some suggestions.

Do you think in light of the reported economic damage that’s being done to Russia and its citizens, that he wants to get out? Discuss.

Short videos on the media and a theory of stupidity

Freeze Peach 🍑 posted these videos over at Snowflake's forum. They are short but informative. The first one is a theory of how the media works. In my opinion, there is a lot of truth in it.

When one couples that with the video below about Bonhoeffer's theory of stupidity (maybe better called an aspect of human social behavior), one can see the connection between the media and the people. Interestingly, Bonhoeffer postulates that propaganda is more a social than an individual phenomenon. That is a belief I've independently come to  believe over the years based on what I've learned about human cognitive biology and social behavior. Both of these videos resonate personally. They feel basically correct.