Reasons for optimism & etc.

The Hill reports about a NYT/Siena College poll (poll ranking #1 among several hundred polling groups) showing that Harris has made four critical swing states competitive:

Vice President Harris is closing the gap with former President Trump in several key battleground states as the election inches closer, according to a new survey.

The poll, published Saturday, from The New York Times/Siena College found Harris is leading Trump in Arizona (50 percent to 45 percent) and North Carolina (49 percent to 47 percent). The vice president’s momentum has in recent weeks led her campaign to declare that the Tar Heel Sate, where Trump had built a solid lead when facing former President Biden, is back in play for Democrats.

The latest poll results also come after the independent election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted Arizona, Georgia and Nevada from “lean Republican” to “toss-up,” as Harris continues to chip away at Trump’s lead in most battleground states.

Democrats are also far more excited about the presidential race with Harris at the top of the ticket compared to Biden, with 85 percent saying they are at least somewhat excited for their candidate and the election, which is also far higher than the May poll.

That is good news. Even though it is till too far out in time from the election, the shifts in poll data in the last few weeks seems to reflect a meaningful change in voter sentiment toward Harris. Time will tell if that dissipates as DJT, the GOP and their authoritarian radical right propaganda Leviathan crank up a torrent of lies, slanders and crackpottery to smear and discredit Harris with.

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HuffPost reports: 

Trans Voters Are Mobilizing Around Kamala Harris

“We know our rights and our progress are on the line, but so is our very sense of belonging,” said Delaware state Sen. Sarah McBride

The first-ever mobilization of trans voters around a presidential candidate took place on Zoom on Tuesday, as around 1,000 transgender people, including lawmakers, advocates, health care workers and celebrities, logged on to show support for Vice President Kamala Harris’ bid for the presidency.

Trans Folks For Harris was one of numerous identity-based webinars to support Harris after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race last month. Over the last few weeks, many LGBTQ+ advocates have embraced Harris, touting her decadeslong record of supporting LGBTQ+ rights, and her decision to make Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who transformed the state into a “trans refuge,” her running mate.

This came just after Advocates for Trans Equality released a report showing that 75% of eligible trans voters turned up to the polls in the 2020 presidential election, compared to 67% of the general U.S. population — and that trans voters make up a crucial part of the electorate.

Maybe the trans folk are getting woke about DJT and the GOP! 

Images like those never made a lick of sense to me. Maybe I was premature in thinking that LGBQT people who supported DJT were insane. Maybe they were just sleepy but have had their coffee now. Or something. Seems like a switch has been flipped.

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Abortion wars: Axios reports:

Former President Trump tried to avoid taking a hardline abortion stance with his leave-it-to-the-states platform, but a new survey shows resistance from women across the political spectrum.

Why it matters: While Trump tries to downplay abortion as a political issue, 74% of women ages 18–49 said in a KFF survey that they "somewhat" or "strongly" oppose leaving it up to the states to decide whether abortion is legal.

• 3 in 4 women of the same age group say they think it should be legal, per a new survey from KFF.

• That's in stark contrast to Trump's statements that people are happy to have abortion made into a state issue.

By the numbers: 53% of Republican women voters ages 18–49 oppose leaving abortion rights up to the states, compared to 86% of Democratic women, per the survey.

• 73% of independent women voters, a coveted voter bloc for both candidates, also oppose leaving abortion to the states.

• 74% of urban and suburban women oppose leaving abortion rights to the states, and 68% of rural women voters oppose leaving restrictions to the states.

Looks like abortion is an issue that is not going to go away, and that is something to be cautiously optimistic about. 

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How to make nice with the US military: The Hill reports:

Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW), one of the nation’s largest and oldest veteran advocacy organizations, on Friday condemned former President Trump’s recent statement comparing the Medal of Honor to a presidential award for civilians, calling his remarks “asinine.”

“These asinine comments not only diminish the significance of our nation’s highest award for valor, but also crassly characterized the sacrifices of those who have risked their lives above and beyond the call of duty,” wrote VFW National Commander Al Lipphardt in a statement Friday.

The VFW’s reaction comes after Trump equated the Presidential Medal of Freedom, awarded to civilians, to the Medal of Honor, which is awarded to soldiers wounded in the line of combat.

“That’s the highest award you can get as a civilian. It’s the equivalent of the congressional Medal of Honor, but civilian version,” Trump told attendees at an event at his Bedminister, N.J. club, attended by GOP mega donor Miriam Adelson, who was awarded the Medal of Freedom in 2018.

Miriam Adelson is one of DJT's emotional support billionaires. She is waaay radical, authoritarian and beyond hyper-pro-Israel. And she is rich, rich, rich. 

About Miriam: In the 2020 election, Miriam Adelson and her late husband Sheldon Adelson were the largest donors to Trump's campaign. They spent approximately $75 million in support of Trump's campaign. They donated about $90 million to Preserve America, a pro-Trump super PAC, which accounted for roughly 85% of the organization's total funds. For the 2024 campaign, Miriam Adelson is planning to donate as much as $100 million to Trump through her super PAC, Preserve America. The exact amount is not specified, but her political advisor has indicated that they are committed to doing "whatever it takes" to secure Trump's victory. Adelson's support for Trump goes beyond campaign contributions. She is also a vocal supporter, urging Jewish voters to back Trump and praising his actions related to Israel.

DJT awarding Miriam the Presidential Medal of Freedom, calling it a "much better" award than the top military honor, the Medal of Honor, because military recipients (losers and suckers) are often dead or injured

Sheldon (died in 2021), Miriam & the beast

Repercussions of killing the Chevron defense

The US Air Force is refusing to obey an EPA requirement to clean up one of its toxic messes that has gone out of control. The Air Force argues that the June 28, 2024 USSC decision in Loper Bright Enterprises to kill the Chevron defense allows it to ignore the EPA. The Chevron defense is what gave executive agencies the power to enforce their regulations and compliance requirements. Balls and Strikes reports: 

Deadly Polluters Think the Supreme Court

Just Gave Them a Free Pass

The justices have made clear that they don’t take administrative agencies seriously. Now, the entities regulated by those agencies are saying they don’t have to listen, either

For decades, the U.S. Air Force has been using and disposing of chemicals at an industrial manufacturing plant it owns near Tucson, Arizona. These substances, some of which are known as “forever chemicals” due to their long lifespans and extraordinary resistance to degradation, have now seeped into the groundwater underneath the Air Force facility.

Exposure to even low levels of these chemicals can have adverse effects on the human body, including damage to the liver, kidneys, and immune and cardiovascular systems. And in Tucson, the concentrations are thousands of times higher than the maximum contaminant levels allowed by the Environmental Protection Agency. To make matters worse, there’s currently no system in place to contain or treat the contamination, which allows the chemicals to migrate into the city’s main source of drinking water.

Earlier this year, the EPA concluded that conditions in Tucson “may present an imminent and substantial endangerment to the health of persons.” And in May, pursuant to its authority to enforce the Safe Drinking Water Act, the EPA ordered the Air Force to abate the hazard it created, or face the possibility of paying tens of thousands of dollars in civil penalties.

But yesterday, The Guardian reported that the Air Force is refusing to comply with the EPA’s order, claiming that the Supreme Court’s June 2024 decision in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo means it doesn’t have to. According to The Guardian, the Air Force’s response to the EPA cites Loper Bright as evidence that “the EPA’s order can not withstand review.”

Judicial review isn’t actually on the table here—one arm of the executive branch can’t sue another—so the White House would eventually resolve this disagreement in-house. But if it sides with the Air Force, the Air Force will presumably continue to not take responsibility for the deadly pollution it caused. Even more ominously, in future cases where private-sector companies don’t feel like following the law, the Air Force may set an example for these other polluters to follow.  

“We don’t have to clean up our mess” is a pretty audacious conclusion to draw from Loper Bright, a case in which the Supreme Court’s Republican supermajority overturned a 40-year-old case called Chevron v. NRDC. Under Chevron, if there was ambiguity about how an administrative agency should apply a law enacted by Congress, courts would defer to the agency’s interpretation of its own authority, so long as that interpretation was “reasonable.” For decades, this approach left technical, policy-driven questions to politically accountable experts, rather than unaccountable federal judges who don’t know their nitrogen oxide from their laughing gas.  

Now that the Court has overruled Chevron, judges are free to second-guess administrative agencies willy-nilly.  

While the Air Force’s ambitious interpretation of Loper Bright may be sloppy, it’s also predictable. The Supreme Court has made clear, over and over, that judges don’t have to listen to administrative agencies, so now, entities regulated by those administrative agencies are saying they don’t have to listen, either. They feel empowered to ignore regulations they don’t want to follow because they know the conservative-packed courts don’t want to enforce them against anyone. When lawbreaking polluters are given inches, they take miles.

It is unclear if the Air Force will be able to get away with just dumping poison all over and then ignoring it. That will be up to the president, not the federal courts. 

However, with the USSC currently vehemently hostile to federal government power to regulate much of anything, if anything, this Air Force stunt very likely will encourage private companies to try the same thing with some regulation or another. The point is to start the legal process of whittling away at regulations that federal agencies have put in place. It is reasonable to think that the people in the Air Force could be MAGA authoritarians who knowingly did this precisely to jump start lawsuits to eat away at federal regulations. That assumes that the lawsuits have not already started.

The ramifications of recent decisions from the radicalized Republican USSC are just beginning to be felt. The damage and carnage will continue for years. We are witnessing (i) our democracy crumble and die, and (ii) its replacement by some toxic form of kleptocratic radical right authoritarianism.

When you take time away from politics.........

 ........... and then return to discover there is a new candidate for the Democratic party, and not one I expected, and a renewed energy among liberals and progressives.

Will this now turn the tide? I am optimistic that it will. Especially if our good friend Germaine keeps posting threads warning us of the dire consequences of another Trump term.

It's nice to see the enthusiasm and upbeat approach now being taken by the MSM and the Harris campaign. We could ALL use a bit of that infection and start being more upbeat ourselves.

The picking of Walz, though initially a shock when I heard about it, has really energized liberals as well. What a refreshing individual. AND YES, I DO REALIZE the Right will do everything possible to knock him down.

I have argued in the past, and will continue to argue, that we on the left allow the right to have too much control over our feelings. We are ALWAYS trying so hard to counter their narrative, that we have been slow in developing our own.

The Harris/Walz ticket seems to have changed that. Now THEY are forced to respond to our narrative instead of us responding to theirs.

My absence over the summer was also refreshing in many ways. One way, was being able to avoid the news and all the anxieties of partisan politics. Well, for the most part anyways. I did, from time to time, peak in here and on my forum to see what people were talking about.

Makes me wonder, if we all could use a "vacation" from the news and narratives and mud-slinging and anxieties caused by our political discourse?

I for one, will remain optimistic. My optimism I realize could be crushed depending on what happens in November. But for now............

Let's all take try n shake off the gloom and doom and try a bit of optimism for a change.

Whatcha all think? 

Recent history: How Ronald Reagan got Israel to stop ongoing slaughter

This is about some history well worth knowing. In the past, the US used its power to get Israel to stop an ongoing military conflict. A NYT article (not paywalled) discusses some of the events on Aug. 12-13, 1982 regarding the power of a US president to stop an ongoing Israeli military action:

Chronology of Crisis About 6 A.M. (midnight Wednesday, New York time) - Israelis begin bombing west Beirut. As raids continue, Lebanon's Prime Minister, Shafik al-Wazzan, tells Philip C. Habib, the special American envoy, that the talks cannot continue.

2 P.M. (8 A.M., New York time) -The Israeli Cabinet meets. A message from President Reagan arrives, expressing ''outrage'' and, reportedly threatening to halt the Habib mission. The Cabinet decides to end the raids and order new ones only if they are ''essential.''

4 P.M. (10 A.M., New York time) -President Reagan tries for hour to call Mr. Begin but cannot get through. 4:50 P.M. (10:50 A.M., New York time) - King Fahd of Saudi Arabia calls Mr. Reagan. 5 P.M. (11 A.M., New York time) -A new cease-fire goes into effect in west Beirut. 5:10 P.M. (11:10 A.M., New York time) - Mr. Reagan reaches Mr. Begin for 10-minute telephone call. 5:40 P.M. (11:40 A.M., New York time) - Mr. Begin calls President Reagan to say that a ''complete cease-fire'' had been ordered.

WASHINGTON, Aug. 12 - President Reagan expressed ''outrage'' to Prime Minister Menachem Begin today over Israel's latest bombing raids in west Beirut, saying the attacks had resulted in ''needless destruction and bloodshed.'' It was the sharpest statement by Mr. Reagan since the start of the Israeli invasion of Lebanon nine weeks ago.

Larry Speakes, the deputy White House press secretary, said Mr. Reagan had been ''shocked'' by the Israeli attacks on west Beirut. Mr. Reagan voiced his feelings directly to Mr. Begin, according to Mr. Speakes.

Mr. Speakes said the Israeli action had threatened the efforts by Philip C. Habib, the special American envoy, to end the fighting in Lebanon and arrange for the withdrawal of the 6,000 to 9,000 Palestinian guerrillas trapped in west Beirut. In the last 48 hours, Mr. Habib's peace plan seemed on the verge of success. 'Massive Military Action'

''The President expressed his outrage over this latest round of massive military action,'' Mr. Speakes said early this afternoon. ''He emphasized that Israel's action halted Ambassador Habib's negotiations for a peaceful resolution of the Beirut crisis when they were at the point of success. The result has been more needless destruction and bloodshed.''

The NYT article continues. The ceasefire in 1982 was reported elsewhere as having been "independently" reached by Israel a 10 minutes before Reagan got through to Begin. However, word of Reagan's demand reached Tel Aviv hours before an "emergency cabinet meeting" which put an end to the bombing. Apparently, Israel wanted to save face and claim it stopped the fighting on its own accord.

An Aug. 9, 2007 Reuters article reported about Reagan referring to the Israeli military action as a holocaust:

Reagan diaries reveal president's private musings

Reagan took care not to spell out even mild swear words, so hell was written h--l and damn was d---. 

But at times he was provocative. He intentionally used the word "holocaust" to Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin to refer to an Israeli attack on Beirut. 

On February 6, 1982, he noted that "trouble brewing in the Middle East" ahead of the Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon and that, "Right now Israel has lost a lot of world sympathy."

He said one particularly devastating bombing and artillery attack on western Beirut in August 1982 had led King Fahd of Saudi Arabia to call the White House "begging me to do something."

"I told him I was calling P.M. Begin immediately. And I did -- I was angry -- I told him it had to stop or our entire future relationship was endangered. I used the word holocaust deliberately & said the symbol of war was becoming a picture of a 7-month-old baby with its arms blown off."

The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation & Institute has this diary entry for Aug. 12,1982:

Met with the news the Israelis delivered the most devastating bomb & artillery attack on W. Beirut lasting 14 hours. Habib cabled—desperate—has basic agreement from all parties but cant arrange details of P.L.O. withdrawal because of the barrage. King Fahd called begging me to do something. I told him I was calling P.M. Begin immediately. And I did—I was angry. I told him it had to stop or our entire future relationship was endangered. I used the word holocaust deliberately & said the symbol of his war was becoming a picture of a 7 month old baby with it’s arms blown off. He told me he had ordered the bombing stopped—I asked about the artillery fire. He claimed the P.L.O. had started that & Israeli forces had taken casualties. End of call. Twenty mins. later he called to tell me he’d ordered an end to the barrage and plead for our continued friendship.

I've said it before and say it again: The US had the power and could have used it to force a reasonable peace agreement, but it failed to do so. Now, it is too late for that. It probably has been too late ever since a Jewish zealot with a gun assassinated Yitzhak Rabin on Nov. 4, 1995. This gigantic failure of US foreign policy could wind up being the straw that breaks the back of American democracy. This US failure could be a necessary part of the reason that the American experiment in democracy came to its stupid end in 2024.