Public sentiment on the status of the US political system

The NYT writes (not paywalled):

Support for Trump’s Policies Exceeds Support for Trump

A new poll found the public is sympathetic to the president-elect’s plans to deport migrants and reduce America’s presence overseas.

Many Americans who otherwise dislike President-elect Donald J. Trump share his bleak assessment of the country’s problems and support some of his most contentious prescriptions to fix them, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Ipsos.

A little more than half of the country expresses some desire to see Mr. Trump follow through with his harshest threat to deal with illegal immigration: deporting everyone living in the United States without authorization.

And a large majority is sympathetic to efforts to strictly limit how doctors can treat children struggling with their gender identity — an issue Mr. Trump and other Republicans made central to their campaigns for office. Seventy-one percent said that no one under 18 should be prescribed puberty-blocking drugs or hormones. The Supreme Court is expected to issue a decision on the matter later this year.

The poll tells the story of a country turning inward, where people are more aligned with Mr. Trump’s “America First” agenda than they were during his first term in office.

For a political figure so divisive — Americans view him more negatively than any other president about to take office in the last 70 years — the level of support for his ideas is striking. Most Americans say the United States has ignored serious problems at home while entangling itself in costly conflicts abroad, the poll found. A majority believe the government is sending too much money to Ukraine. And many are expressing less tolerance of immigrants overall.

Overall, 73 percent of Americans say they oppose the idea of Mr. Trump pursuing legal charges against his adversaries — with 49 percent saying they are strongly opposed.

The poll also revealed that Americans hold their government in exceedingly low esteem — far lower than during the Watergate era. Majorities across races, genders and partisan stripe say the political system is broken and that the economy works against them — a pessimism that tracks with some of Mr. Trump’s grimmer rhetoric.

There is a widespread belief, across parties, that Washington is corrupt, with two-thirds of Democrats and 80 percent of Republicans saying the government serves itself and the powerful over ordinary people. Two-thirds of Americans say the economic system unfairly favors the wealthy.

It is ironic that so many Americans correctly think the system is corrupt and rigged, but in their anger, frustration and resentments, they voted for the most corrupt candidate by far. Apparently, most DJT voters don't realize that he wants to neuter or completely get rid of the CFPB (consumer finance protections) and the NLRB (labor protections). Either that, or they want to get rid of labor and consumer finance protections. Project 2025 and DJT are all about rigging the system against average people even more than it is now and giving the elites even more wealth and power. 

We live in such strange days.

What Will You Be Doing on Jan. 20?

 Indeed - what?

Not hard to guess, but................

Consider participating in Martin Luther King Jr. Day of Service

What are your plans for Jan. 20? Will you spend the day watching inauguration festivities on TV?

Here's an alternate possibility and one that could lead, ultimately, to the following outcomes: an enriched sense of purpose in life, lower blood pressure, increased energy and self-esteem and decreased stress and loneliness. You may even live longer.

The cherry on top? A guaranteed warm, fuzzy feeling.

All of the above perks of volunteering — and more — can flow from participating in Martin Luther King Jr. National Day of Service on Jan. 20.

Martin Luther King Jr. Day (MLK Day) is observed each year on the third Monday in January. (King was actually born on Jan. 15.) This year that means MLK Day falls on Monday, Jan. 20, the same day as the presidential inauguration.

"Service strengthens communities, and transforms the lives of the individuals served, and the volunteers who serve."

https://www.nextavenue.org/what-will-you-be-doing-on-jan-20/

https://www.pointsoflight.org/blog/18-volunteer-opportunities-2024-mlk-day-of-service/

https://americorps.gov/serve/volunteer/mlk-day

Robert Reich on the rise of oligarchy, kleptocracy and wealth & power politics

At ~6:53-8:10, Robert Reich discusses the ongoing rise of kleptocratic oligarchy in America. At ~11:10-11:50 Reich argues that the oligarchs are fighting against democracy, both in the US and abroad.

If I recall right, I've raised warnings about the American and global rise of anti-democratic kleptocracy and/or plutocracy (oligarchy) probably about 600 times in blog posts or in my Disqus comments here. I've also warned hundreds of times about the rise of anti-democratic, kleptocratic dictatorship and kleptocratic Christian theocracy in American politics. In all cases, the main goals of the various kinds of authoritarianism in play are accumulating more wealth and power for the elites. That is also a point I made hundreds of times here. In essence, Reich makes all the same arguments himself.

Arguably, Reich sounds somewhat like me. Same concerns, remarkably similar language. Reich almost certainly came to his beliefs and opinions independently from me. If so, then his reality and my reality were arrived at via different pathways, based on different experiences. In science, arriving at the same understanding by different kinds of research is called consilience. I wonder is Reich and I are an example of consilience in politics.[1]

Q: In your opinion, if Reich does sound somewhat like me, does that help, hurt or do nothing to my credibility in warning about the rise of kleptocratic, radical right American authoritarian wealth & power politics?

Thanks to milo for mentioning this video.

Footnote:

1. Q: Is there a known phenomenon of consilience in politics, meaning different people independently of each other arrive at the same or quite similar perceptions of political reality and political belief?

 

A: Yes, there is a known phenomenon in politics that aligns with the concept of consilience, where different individuals or groups independently arrive at similar perceptions of political reality and political beliefs. This convergence of political beliefs can be observed through several lenses: 

1. In politics, this can manifest when various groups or individuals, despite their different backgrounds, come to similar conclusions about political events, policies, or ideologies due to the convergence of evidence from multiple sources. (evidence- and reason-based politics = pragmatic rationalism)

4. There is evidence suggesting that cognitive reflection (analytical thinking) can lead to more skepticism towards political statements, but it can also amplify partisan biases. This interaction can result in a convergence of beliefs among those with similar levels of cognitive reflection and political alignment. (hence the need for anti-biasing -- pragmatic rationalism = an anti-biasing, anti-ideology meta-ideology)

6. The rise of broadcast media and interest-group advertising has changed how political information is disseminated, potentially leading to a convergence of political beliefs among viewers or readers who are exposed to similar narratives.

 

Tax gap update

One of the things I try to check on periodically is the amount of the tax gap (TG). The TG is the amount of taxes owed to the federal government that are not paid. I use the TG as an indicator of (1) the level of corruption in society, and (2) the degree of dysfunction in congress. 

A few years ago, I estimated the TG at about $1.3 trillion per year, but official IRS estimates were always lower by several hundred billon. I attributed the difference to IRS fear of Republicans in congress who hate the IRS. They want to shrink it a lot. A few want to get rid of it entirely, seeing taxes as theft, unconstitutional, or whatever other excuse they can dream up. Reporting a lower TG helps the IRS avoid the mindless wrath of Repubs. 

An Oct. 2024 post by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget reported the IRS TG estimate for 2022:

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) recently published its projections of the “tax gap” – the difference between taxes owed to and collected by the federal government annually – for tax year 2022, as well as updated projections for tax years 2017-2019, 2020, and 2021. The report finds that the net tax gap after enforcement actions fell from $617 billion in 2021 to $606 billion in 2022.

While the IRS projects that taxpayers owed $4.6 trillion in total tax liability in 2022, only about $3.9 trillion of that was paid on time and without penalty. Enforcement actions and late payments led to an additional $90 billion being collected. 

A large portion of the tax gap comes from income subject to little or no information reporting requirements, such as business income from sole proprietorships. Of the $381 billion projected individual income tax underreporting gap in 2022, $179 billion – or 47 percent – comes from this category, including $117 billion from “non-farm proprietor income.” Other forms of income that are subject to more reporting requirements contribute much less to the tax gap.

What congressional Republicans really hate and actively work to eliminate is IRS enforcement actions. They do that by cutting as much funding for IRS enforcement as they possibly can. Each dollar the IRS spends in enforcement actions is estimated by the IRS to return about $5-7, a 500-700% ROI. For example, in FY 2023, the IRS collected $86 billion through enforcement programs, which equates to an ROI of about $7 to $1 compared to the IRS's discretionary budget. In FY 2022, the IRS collected $72.4 billion through enforcement programs, yielding an ROI of about $6 to $1 or 600%. The Congressional Budget Office has historically estimated that an additional dollar of enforcement spending would yield between $5 and $9 in additional revenue, focusing on the highest-return activities.

See how useful the TG is in evaluating corruption and government dysfunction? What a fun little tool.

I expect that once DJT is settled in and gets his Project 2025 wrecking ball running full tilt 24/7/365, inconvenient data like this about the TG will suddenly either disappear entirely or the estimates will drastically decrease to the point of making the TG a non-issue. Ways to make the TG decrease is to legalize tax cheating, e.g., by creating more loopholes, or to reduce taxes. The GOP is diligently working both angles. 

Savor the data while it lasts. Its days are probably coming to an end fairly soon. We will soon be engulfed in massive thick clouds of opacity about inconvenient government operations and corruption.