Deep research: What is the likelihood that djt is working for Putin?

Bottom line: This analysis puts the likelihood that djt is a Russian asset at 75%-85%.

Q: What is the approximate likelihood that Trump is working for Russia or Putin based on all available relevant information including Trump's mendacity, sympathy for dictators, amenability to be corrupted and his behaviors especially since 2016?

A: The question of whether Donald Trump is acting as an agent of Russian interests, whether through coercion, financial compromise, or ideological alignment, has persisted since his 2016 presidential campaign. This analysis synthesizes evidence from Trump’s financial history, political behavior, policy decisions, and testimonies from intelligence professionals to estimate the likelihood of such a relationship.

 

Historical Context: Early Ties to Russian Networks
Soviet-Era Cultivation Efforts
Multiple accounts from former Soviet intelligence officers allege that Trump was cultivated as a potential asset during his 1987 visit to Moscow. Yuri Shvets, a former KGB major, and Alnur Mussayev, ex-head of Kazakhstan’s intelligence service, claim Trump was targeted for recruitment due to his business ambitions and political naivety1 6 14. While no smoking gun confirms formal recruitment, Trump’s subsequent financial reliance on post-Soviet oligarchs—evidenced by $109 million in all-cash purchases of Trump properties between 2003 and 2017—aligns with patterns of money laundering and kompromat accumulation 6 8.

Financial Dependence on Russian Capital
After U.S. banks distanced themselves from Trump following his 1990s bankruptcies, Russian-linked entities became critical financiers. Trump’s sons, Donald Jr. and Eric, openly acknowledged reliance on Russian capital, with Eric stating in 2014: “We have all the funding we need out of Russia” 6 14. This dependency created vulnerabilities, as debt to opaque Russian entities could be leveraged for political concessions.

Post-2016 Behavior: Policy Alignment with Kremlin Objectives
Undermining NATO and Defending Russian Aggression
Trump’s repeated disparagement of NATO—calling it “obsolete” and threatening withdrawal—mirrored long-standing Kremlin goals to fracture Western alliances 10 13. His refusal to publicly condemn Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea or its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, coupled with blaming NATO expansion for provoking conflict, further aligned with Putin’s narratives 3 13.

Sanctions Relief and Cyber Truce
In early 2025, Trump reportedly directed the Treasury and State Departments to identify sanctions on Russia for potential easing and suspended U.S. offensive cyber operations against Moscow 2 15. These unilateral moves, made without consulting European allies, directly advanced Putin’s objectives of economic recovery and reduced cyber vulnerability 2 7.

 

Compromising Evidence and Counterintelligence Concerns
Obstruction of Investigations
The Mueller Report (2019) documented 272 contacts between Trump associates and Russia-linked operatives, none disclosed to authorities 1. While the investigation found insufficient evidence of criminal conspiracy, it highlighted systemic deception, including Paul Manafort’s sharing of campaign data with Russian intelligence 1 6. The Senate Intelligence Committee’s 2020 report labeled multiple Trump associates as “counterintelligence threats,” citing their susceptibility to foreign influence 6 12.

Amplification of Russian Disinformation
Trump consistently echoed Kremlin propaganda, including false claims that Ukraine—not Russia—initiated the 2022 war 3 13. His endorsement of Rudy Giuliani’s efforts to spread debunked allegations about Hunter Biden’s dealings in Ukraine paralleled Russian active measures to discredit U.S. institutions 6 12.

Psychological and Ideological Factors

Admiration for Authoritarian Leadership
Trump’s public admiration for Putin’s “strongman” leadership style, including praise for the 2022 invasion as “savvy,” reflects ideological alignment with autocratic governance 10 13. His threats to withdraw from NATO, impose tariffs on allies, and undermine democratic norms (e.g., suggesting “lifetime” presidential terms) mirror Putin’s consolidation of power 10 11.

Rejection of Democratic Accountability
Trump’s attacks on inspectors general, whistleblowers, and independent media—culminating in the 2025 purge of ethics officials—demonstrate a preference for opacity conducive to foreign manipulation 5 10. His dismissal of U.S. intelligence assessments on Russian election interference further eroded safeguards against foreign influence 1 6.

 

Probabilistic Assessment
Cumulative Evidence of Compromise
Elon Musk’s AI, Grok, analyzed public data from 1980–2025 and estimated a 75–85% likelihood that Trump is a “Putin-compromised asset,” citing financial ties, policy alignment, and refusal to criticize Russia despite attacking allies 6. This aligns with intelligence assessments noting Trump’s susceptibility to kompromat and repeated acts benefiting Moscow 14 16.

Counterarguments and Uncertainty
Skeptics argue Trump’s behavior stems from transactional self-interest rather than direct coercion. His real estate ventures in Russia, though largely unrealized, may reflect a pragmatic pursuit of profit rather than subservience 7 16. Additionally, the absence of classified intercepts or financial records leaves room for alternative explanations, such as naive admiration for Putin 15.

 

Conclusion
Based on documented financial dependencies, policy decisions favoring Russian interests, and corroborated intelligence allegations, the likelihood of Trump acting as a Russian asset falls between 75% and 85%. While definitive proof remains elusive, the preponderance of circumstantial evidence—spanning four decades—suggests a relationship exceeding mere coincidence or ideological affinity. This assessment underscores the need for continued scrutiny of Trump’s financial networks and foreign engagements to mitigate risks to U.S. democratic institutions. (emphasis added)

Whadda ya think? Isn't Perplexity a total hoot? Oh yeah, and the analysis of djt working for Russia too!

What led to this little Q&A was commentary about a 277 page court filing last year by an FBI agent wanting a search warrant regarding Russians screwing with American elections. The Russians were conducting a covert effort called Doppelganger. Doppelganger is the German word for a double of a living person. Basically, the Russians were posting fake, anti-American content using the trademarks of major US news outlets to hide the fact that it was all a gigantic Russian hoax. 

Part of page 1 of 277 pages

Poisoned minds: MAGA's cruel immaturity

In more evidence of the poisonous power of decades of divisive, reason-terminating MAGA demagoguery, The Hill reports about fired federal employees facing relatives who celebrate their firing: 

Thrust into unemployment, axed federal workers face 

relatives who celebrate their firing

Scrambling to replace their health insurance and to find new work, some laid-off federal workers are running into another unexpected unpleasantry: Relatives cheering their firing.

The country’s bitterly tribal politics are spilling into text chains, social media posts and heated conversations as Americans absorb the reality of the government’s cost-cutting measures. Expecting sympathy, some axed workers are finding family and friends who instead are steadfast in their support of what they see as a bloated government’s waste.

“They can’t separate their ideology and their politics from supporting their own family and their own loved ones,” says [24-year-old Luke Tobin, fired last month from his job as a technician with the U.S. Forest Service in Idaho’s Nez Perce National Forest]. 

Jenn

As she [Kristin Jenn, National Park Service ranger, Denali National Park and Preserve] has expressed her disappointment over potentially losing her dream job, some members of her mostly conservative family have unfriended her on social media. Others are giving her the silent treatment. Nearly all favor such cuts even if she’s a victim of them. “[My mom, a former federal employee] has somehow been convinced that public servants are a parasite and unproductive even though she was a public servant.” (emphasis added)

Somehow been convinced. What could have possibly poisoned the mind of Jenn's mom into the false belief that her own daughter is an unproductive parasite? Facts about Jenn's work? Nope. Good faith reasoning? Nope. Solid evidence of actual waste, fraud and abuse? Absolutely not. Decades of poisonous, authoritarian MAGA demagoguery, lies and slanders? Yup.

Q: At what point do minds that try to stay in emotional control, lose control in the face of MAGA's unrelenting, insulting lies, cruelty, slanders, deep corruption, authoritarianism, morally rotted bad faith and hate-driven malice? Or, are the opponents of MAGA and its poison to just stay silent and accept their fate at the hands of (i) evil, malice-driven elite MAGA liars and crooks, and (ii) non-elite MAGA minds tricked by MAGA demagoguery into deceit-driven, immature cruelty?

MAGA's TDS

My apologies in advance. I just could not resist this gem once I saw it and it sucked me in. 

🤪

TDS, Trump Derangement Syndrome, is real. Many elite and rank and file MAGA people suffer from it. A wonderful NYT opinion points out the obvious (not paywalled):

The Right’s Trump Derangement Syndrome

Shortly before the last election, Scott Bessent, now Donald Trump’s Treasury secretary, assured The Financial Times that Trump had no interest in reducing international trade and that his threats to impose sweeping, 20 percent tariffs on foreign goods were simply a “maximalist” negotiating position to be watered down during trade talks. “My general view is that at the end of the day, he’s a free trader,” said Bessent.

A few weeks later, CNN’s Kaitlan Collins asked Howard Lutnick, now Trump’s commerce secretary, whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could become secretary of health and human services. “Of course not,” said Lutnick, treating the question as if it were absurd.

During the transition, Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, acted indignant when Democrats asked Pam Bondi, now Trump’s attorney general, if she and the president-elect might consider blanket pardons for Jan. 6 insurrectionists. “I was the last member out of the Senate on Jan. 6,” said Tillis. “I walked past a lot of law enforcement officers who were injured. I find it hard to believe that the president of the United States, or you, would look at facts that were used to convict the violent people on Jan. 6 and say it was just an intemperate moment.”

Just last month, Representative Dan Crenshaw of Texas, who is both a Trump apologist and a supporter of Ukraine, insisted that when Trump trashes Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, it’s actually a sign of affection. “Trump tends to talk that way to his friends,” said Crenshaw. “He tends to talk nicer to his enemies. So if he’s talking to you that way, it still means you’re his friend.”

Some of these men may have been deliberately dishonest, but I suspect there’s also a degree of self-deception at work here. In the four years Trump was out of office, an eerie amnesia about his erratic rule settled over the country, allowing people to project onto him hopes that were utterly untethered from reality. You might call this phenomenon, to appropriate a phrase, Trump Derangement Syndrome.

The right invented the term Trump Derangement Syndrome to dismiss analysis of Trump’s autocratic tendencies, compulsive lying and generally detestable character as liberal hysteria. For conservatives who don’t want to engage with substantive criticism of their leader, it functions as a thought-terminating cliché, a term often used by people who study cults to describe ideological formulations that short-circuit critical thinking. Trump Derangement Syndrome implies that if someone tells you something about Trump that you don’t want to hear, that person must be crazy.

But the real derangement lies in either the refusal or the inability to see Trump clearly.

I’d argue that the doomsayers were also right about Trump’s first term, which was full of sadism, incompetence and corruption, and culminated in a coup attempt. But if it wasn’t as catastrophic as it could have been, it was because establishment figures often restrained him. The periods of relative stability provided by the adults in the room lulled people into complacency about how much damage an unfettered Trump could do.

Now the adults are gone, but Trump’s defenders are still pretending — perhaps to themselves as well as to the rest of us — that there’s order amid the chaos. After Trump berated and tried to humiliate Zelensky, the radio host Glenn Beck explained that he was really playing five-dimensional chess against Russia.  

Speaking at The New York Times’ DealBook summit in December, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos said Trump had grown over the past eight years. “What I’ve seen so far is he is calmer than he was the first time — more confident, more settled,” Bezos said. Sounds like Trump Derangement Syndrome to me.

Ya know, some opinion pieces are better than others. Right? But this one is better than most of the better ones. I love the turns of phrase here, (i) TDS functions as a thought-terminating cliché, (ii) an eerie amnesia about his erratic rule settled over the country, allowing people to project onto him hopes that were utterly untethered from reality, and (iii) he was really playing five-dimensional chess against Russia.

Bwahahahahaha!

I love it, utterly untethered from reality. A thought-terminating cliché. What a hoot! 5-D chess? By djt? Holy bejezus!! He can't even play tic-tac-toe and come to a draw! Wait, wait! He did ace the brainpower test.

The brainpower test

“Person, woman, man, camera, TV”

See, I'm bigly smart!

(the 3 animals: platypus, puppy, pig and rodent)

Q: Is Germaine, once again, off his brain meds for seeing this artistic opinion as exceptional in a good way? 

PS: Geez, this post was a lot more fun than most.

MAGA bits: Dem lawsuits; Regarding martial law; Rising public discontent? Maybe

Reuters reports:

Trump sued by Democrats for seeking control over election commission

U.S. President Donald Trump was sued on Friday by the Democratic Party over a recent executive order it says violates federal election law by giving him too much power over the independent Federal Election Commission (FEC).

The lawsuit filed in the Washington, D.C., federal court by three national Democratic committees is the party's first against Trump during the Republican's second White House term.

Friday's lawsuit objects to a February 18 order giving the White House more control over the election commission, the National Labor Relations Board, the Securities and Exchange Commission and other traditionally independent agencies that normally operate day-to-day at arm's length from the president.

Democrats said enforcing it would essentially substitute Trump's views on election-related disputes for those of the bipartisan election commission, and let him dictate outcomes.

Congress created the election commission in 1974 in the wake of the Watergate scandal, to oversee elections and enforce campaign finance laws.

The complaint quotes then-Republican President Gerald Ford saying both political parties had "expressed their pleasure with this bill, noting that it allows them to compete fairly."

The Dems are fighting to keep the FEC from being subverted. In my firm opinion, that is solid evidence that djt and MAGA elites are going to seriously try to subvert the 2026 mid-term elections and all federal elections thereafter. At least now, Dem elites are finally understanding the gravity of the MAGA threat to their own power. Fear for loss of power is what finally got the Dems to start to move. 

A major problem is obvious and simple. The USSC has radicalized and become authoritarian and deeply corrupt. The Dems now have their fate in the hands of a hyper-partisan Republican Party USSC. This situation is sending off bad vibes. 

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A paywalled SF Chronicle article discusses the possibility that djt is planning to invoke the Insurrection Act. The article points out that djt's first round of executive orders included a directive for the Secretaries of Defense and Homeland Security to submit a joint report within 90 days recommending whether to invoke the Insurrection Act, specifically in response to illegal migration at the southern border. 

The article notes that invoking the Insurrection Act and declaring martial law leads to unchecked presidential power. Martial law allows djt to bypass legal restrictions on using the military for civilian law enforcement. The recent firings of top Pentagon officials, removed institutional barriers that could block djt's intention to declare martial law. In view of his history of spreading blatantly false, slanderous claims about immigration and immigrants, e.g., eating dogs and cats in Springfield, OH, djt can be expected to use lies like that to justify imposing marital law. 

All the evidence points to an imminent declaration of martial law based on lies about a fake border emergency. Why do that? Obviously, to try to kill democracy once and for all.

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Axios discussed poll data showing some discontent with Musk, presumably because of what he is doing to the federal government and whatnot.

The New Republic comments that Musk's visibility is high, saying that "Trump has largely checked out, prompting Musk, on multiple occasions, to step in as the president’s emotional-support fascist during public appearances."

Hm, who would have thought that a US president would ever need an emotional-support fascist? We live in strange, scary times. 

Meanwhile, TNR reports that Musk is starting to distance himself from what appears to be a growing public backlash against the mayhem he is causing in the federal government (and regarding his stealing of our personal data from federal databases). TNR writes, Elon Musk Suddenly Doesn’t Want Credit for Disastrous DOGE Cuts -- Musk is warning Republicans to stop blaming DOGE for the cuts.

In a very clever lie, Musk claims that DOGE is not behind the federal workforce cuts. Instead agency heads who order the firings are to blame. 🤔 Hm, come to think of it, that is not a very clever lie at all. It is just a standard insulting, stupid MAGA lie. You know, the kind of lie that djt and MAGA elites insult us with every day.

A peanut commented from the cheap seats gallery: Elon did it to stay out of prison. He literally said he is going to prison if djt doesn't win. Now he is targeting every agency that was investigating him and his companies.

Not a plausible analysis? Consider this fun-filled short video of Musk laughing about his own illegal fuckery: