The cognitive biology of tyranny, dissonance and rationality: Three Overton Windows

CONTEXT

To be a reasonably well-informed citizen in a democracy succumbing to radical right kleptocratic authoritarianism, one needs to know a little about the Overton Window. As we all know, the GOP has realigned from old-fashioned, pro-democracy conservatism with elite MAGA and CN (Christian nationalist) tyranny and kleptocracy. 

However, while MAGA and CN elites are authoritarian and anti-democratic, their operational base remains within traditionally conservative institutions and structures, specifically the Republican Party and allied organizations like CPAC, the Heritage Foundation and The Federalist Society. The GOP has functionally merged with MAGA/CN factions, especially since 2016 but arguably going farther back to at least the John Birch Society of the 1960s. The merger and takeover of conservatism blurs traditional distinctions between "conservative" and both "radical right authoritarian" and "kleptocrat." 

MAGA and CN's anti-democratic agenda usually advances via legalistic authoritarianism rather than overt coups, although djt's 1/6/21 coup attempt was an exception. For example, they weaponize the rule of law concept by gerrymandering, judicial appointments, and procedural obstruction, e.g., Senate filibusters. The point is to exploit democratic systems to entrench authoritarian minority rule.

That's a deadly serious problem. For tens of millions of Americans, the label "conservative" effectively masks the authoritarian and kleptocratic agendas of both MAGA and CN elites. That's where the OW (Overton window) comes in.  Many people simply cannot see the ugly reality because authoritarianism and kleptocracy have been propagandized and demagogued to be within an authoritarian OW.

TRIFURCATION OF THE OW

The single Overton window is usually shown about like this  

I've discussed the OW before, e.g., footnote 1 in this post, footnote 1 in this post, footnote 1 of this post, and all of this post. Wikipedia discusses the concept (my inserts are underlined and emphasis added):

The Overton window is the range of subjects and arguments politically acceptable to the mainstream population at a given time. It is also known as the window of discourse. The key to the concept is that the window changes over time. The OW can shift, shrink, expand. The OW can move to the political extreme left or extreme right, especially when driven by decades of divisive demagoguery, lies, slanders and reality-detached, crackpot reasoning. It exemplifies the slow evolution of societal values and norms over time. 

The term is named after the American policy analyst and former senior vice president at Mackinac Center for Public Policy, Joseph Overton, who proposed that the political viability of an idea depends mainly on whether it falls within an acceptability range, rather than on the individual preferences of politicians using the term or concept.

What decades of dark free speech, including demagoguery and constant lies, from MAGA and CN elites has done is to create another "MAGA/CN" OW where authoritarianism and kleptocracy have been normalized and made acceptable concepts for normal political discourse, and government and society generally. According to information Pxy found, extreme polarization in American politics has created three different OWs. There is a 3rd OW at play and it can tip the balance of power:

Q: About what portion or % of adult Americans are trapped in the MAGA/CN Overton Window, what % is in the old pro-secular democracy window and where are the rest of the people politically situated in terms of mindset? 

A: Based on recent polling data and scholarly analysis, the American electorate can be segmented into three broad mindset categories: MAGA/Christian Nationalist (CN) adherents (20–25% of adults), pro-secular democracy advocates (40–45%), and disengaged or conflicted moderates (30–35%).

So there we have it, there are three different OWs. Lots of deep dives with Pxy into this trifurcated politics situation leads to absolutely fascinating research and analysis. For example, in terms of mindset, the moderates tend to be about halfway between the minds that MAGA/CN dark free speech traps compared to the much more fact, true truth and sound reasoning-based pro-secular democracy crowd. The moderates apparently tend to be a bit paralyzed (conflicted) by cognitive dissonance and thus many or most of them are not very informed or engaged with politics. 

Absolutely fascinating stuff. But to try to stay out of the land of TL/DR, or at least not get in any deeper, I'll stop here. 

Not really the OW trifurcation --

replace wise mind with conflicted and

disengaged and maybe that gets fairly close

Shredding the constitution or not?: Shield laws and abortion

The Economist reports about state shield laws that protect doctors in the state from prosecution for sending FDA-approved abortion pills to states that have banned abortions:

[A hypothetical teenage] patient [in rural Texas] is pregnant and wants an abortion. For years, she’s been told that it is illegal in her state, with almost no exceptions. But then, with a bit of Googling, “you find out that there’s this group of people in Massachusetts that will send you FDA-approved medications in the mail.” The ordeal will be over in a few days and will cost $5. “It sounds absolutely bananas, right?” she asks “How could it be legal? How could it be safe?”

Yet it is safe and legal. Dr Foster is one of the founders of the Massachusetts Medication Abortion Access Project (the MAP), a telehealth abortion provider outside Boston. It sends between 2,000 and 3,000 packages of abortion pills a month, 95% of them to states where the procedure has been banned. Massachusetts is one of eight states that protects abortion providers from criminal charges and civil litigation, regardless of where pills are sent (see map). Such “shield” laws are legal novelties that have sprung up since 2022, when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade. In the first six months of 2024, nearly 10,000 abortions took place each month under these provisions—amounting to 10% of all legal abortions in America.

Anti-abortion activists are incensed by the workaround.

Doctors who send abortion pills to states with abortion bans face arrest if they leave their home states. That is a significant downside of practicing abortion telemedicine. Texas has filed suit against a New York doctor, but New York’s governor Kathy Hochul refuses to extradite the doctor and courts in the state are not enforcing Texas’ $113,000 penalty. Texas is claiming that “New York is shredding the constitution.” 

Sooner or later this will wind up at the USSC. If that court decides that abortion telemedicine is illegal under federal law, e.g., the Comstock Act, an 1873 anti-obscenity law, doctors who practiced abortion telemedicine will probably be targeted for prosecution by red states with abortion bans and laws against abortion telemedicine. 

Shield laws are causing major problems in terms of respect among states for judgments in one state being honored by other states. Shield laws conflict with long-standing interstate cooperation, such as extradition agreements and mutual recognition of court decisions. By refusing to honor subpoenas, arrest warrants, or civil lawsuits from anti-abortion states, shield laws risk eroding the constitutional framework that leads states to respect each other's laws and judicial processes. Also, some states might adopt reciprocal measures targeting other issues, escalating partisan "arms races" among states with contradictory laws. The loss of trust between states would probably further weaken national unity and interstate collaborative governance. 

What a mess. Abortion is tearing this country apart. Sadly, it is for no good reason at all. None. National abortion rights never forced even one pregnant girl or woman to get an abortion. Not one. But now, abortion ban laws are forcing tens of thousands of girls and women to have a child they do not want, destroying or disrupting many of those people's lives or future prospects. 

That is Christian nationalist theocracy in action, plain and simple.

Yesterday's anti-MAGA protests

There were anti-djt and anti-MAGA protests yesterday in hundreds of US towns and cities. At least hundreds of thousands of people protested publicly. Maybe about a million.

Miami, FL

Driggs, Idaho

Washington DC, National Mall

San Fransisco, CA

Lexington, MA

West Palm Beach, FL

near Mar-a Lago

New York City

Houston, TX

St. Paul, MN

Miami, FL

Washington, DC

at the White House

Washington, DC

An ideological lineage: JBS → Tea Party → MAGA & Christian nationalism

A commenter here raised the matter of the recent ideological lineage of MAGA and CN (Christian nationalist) ideology and politics. Their assertion was this lineage: JBS (John Birch Socirty) → Tea Party → MAGA & CN (Christian nationalism). That felt right to me. It was a thought I've had in the past more than a few times. But is that thought correct? I asked Pxy.

Q: Is it reasonable and evidence-based to see a direct line of ideological lineage from the John Birch Society to the Tea Party to current Christian nationalism or MAGA more generally?

A: The evidence strongly supports the existence of an ideological lineage connecting the John Birch Society (JBS) to the Tea Party movement and further to contemporary Christian nationalism and MAGA politics. While this lineage isn't perfectly linear, substantial historical documentation demonstrates shared ideological frameworks, organizational connections, and tactical approaches that have evolved across these movements over decades.   

1. The John Birch Society's Foundational Influence

Founded in 1958 by Robert W. Welch Jr. , the John Birch Society emerged as a significant right-wing advocacy organization combining anti-communism with social conservatism. At its peak in the 1960s and 1970s, JBS membership approached 100,000 across hundreds of chapters nationwide. .... The society's core ideological framework included, (i) apocalyptic framing of political threats to America, and (ii) staunch opposition to federal government programs , particularly the New Deal and Great Society, (iii) religious framing of political issues as battles between good and evil, and (iv) conspiratorial worldview regarding government, international organizations, and cultural change 1 6 9, and (v) promotion of "Americanism" as an ideological identity 12.

Despite attempts by mainstream conservatives like William F. Buckley Jr. to marginalize the JBS in the 1960s, historian Matthew Dallek argues that "the group exercised an outsized influence on the conservative movement and the Republican Party" by demonstrating how "the supercharged activism of thousands of diehards could outmatch the votes of millions of citizens and over time transform the GOP" 11.

 

2. Direct Connections to the Tea Party Movement 

The Tea Party movement, which emerged prominently following Barack Obama's election, demonstrates clear ideological and tactical continuity with the John Birch Society. Research shows substantial connections:  

Organizational Overlap  

FreedomWorks, a major Tea Party organization , became "entangled" with Birchers according to research by the Institute for Research & Education on Human Rights, which documented "a large organized contingent of Birchers attended the big FreedomWorks 9-12 Rally in Washington DC". The JBS openly promoted this participation on their website.  

Rhetorical and Ideological Similarities
Tea party protesters adopted the "conservative catchwords of Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan, who built their careers fighting the 'creeping socialism' of civil rights legislation, Social Security and Medicare" 14. In both "tone and substance, tea partiers even sound like the JBS did," particularly when claiming moderate American presidents were extremists or when advocating to "end the Federal Reserve, abolish the Internal Revenue Service and restore the gold standard" 14.

Religious Component
While sometimes portrayed as primarily libertarian, research shows that "more than half of the people supporting the tea party movement identify themselves as Christian conservatives" 2 8. A study by the Public Religion Research Institute found that "57 percent of people in the tea party movement also consider themselves Christian conservatives" 2.

3. Evolution into Christian Nationalism and MAGA Politics 

The ideological framework established by the JBS and advanced through the Tea Party movement has substantially influenced contemporary Christian nationalism and MAGA politics:  

Shared Conspiracy Frameworks 

The JBS conspiracy-driven approach to politics has found new expression in contemporary movements. Tim LaHaye's career demonstrates "a direct line of descent within creationist thinking, from Reagan-era anti-Communism, through a more diffuse blanket opposition to humanist thinking, to American exceptionalism and the impulses that would later express themselves in 21st-century Christian Nationalism". The contemporary "denunciation of the 'deep state'" echoes earlier JBS conspiracy frameworks.

Christian Nationalist Framework
Christian nationalism, defined as "an ideology that idealizes and advocates a fusion of American civil life with a particular type of Christian identity and culture," carries forward the JBS approach of religiously framing political conflicts4. A majority of Tea Party members, "including disproportionately high numbers of nonreligious members, believed that America is a Christian nation"13.

Mainstreaming of Once-Fringe Ideas
The John Birch Society's recent return to the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in 2023, alongside lawmakers including Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, demonstrates the rehabilitation and mainstreaming of ideas once considered extreme 16. This represents the culmination of a process where "Republican leaders who thought they could harness the activism of the Birchers without allowing their paranoia and hatred to define the party" instead found that these elements transformed the GOP 11.

Scholarly Documentation of the Lineage
Multiple scholars have documented this lineage. Matthew Dallek's book "Birchers: How the John Birch Society Radicalized the American Right" provides "a compelling treatment of the origins, evolution, and integration of a fringe movement into the heart of American conservative politics" and "draws many immediate parallels between the John Birch Society and any number of contemporary right-wing actors" 15.

Historians note that "several observers and commentators argued that, while the organization's influence peaked in the 1970s, 'Bircherism' and its legacy of conspiracy theories began making a resurgence in the mid-2010s, and had become the dominant strain in the conservative movement" 1.

4. Important Nuances and Complexities
While the evidence supports a clear ideological lineage, some important nuances should be noted:

• The Tea Party included ideologically diverse members. Research shows it "mobilized a religiously heterogeneous membership" with roughly half being religious right members while the other half "reported lower levels of religious orthodoxy and commitment, and included relatively large numbers of nonreligious individuals" 13.

• Republican leadership has maintained varying relationships with these movements, sometimes embracing their energy while attempting to distance themselves from the most extreme elements 9 11 17.

• The lineage isn't perfectly linear—these movements evolved and adapted to different political contexts while maintaining core ideological features.

5. Conclusion
The historical evidence strongly supports viewing the John Birch Society, the Tea Party movement, and contemporary Christian nationalism/MAGA politics as connected through an ideological lineage. Through shared organizational networks, tactical approaches, and ideological frameworks centered on conspiratorial thinking, religious framing of politics, and opposition to federal government programs, these movements demonstrate remarkable continuity despite evolving contexts.

Historian Matthew Dallek's research highlights how the GOP's attempt to harness radical energy without adopting radical ideology ultimately failed, with the conspiratorial approach and apocalyptic framing pioneered by the JBS becoming increasingly central to right-wing politics 11. The recent rehabilitation of the John Birch Society at CPAC demonstrates that what was once considered fringe has become increasingly mainstream within contemporary conservative[1] politics 16.

Well, there we have it. My uninformed intuition was right and so was the commenter's informed assertion that there is a clear direct lineage: JBS → Tea Party → MAGA & CN.

A few years ago, I brought up the idea of influence by JBS ideology on modern MAGA. The idea was criticized as unreasonable because the JBS had left little influence on American politics. According to this analysis, JBS has had more than a trivial impact. Maybe my intuition wasn't as wrong as my critics asserted.

Footnote:

1. A quibble I raised with Pxy was the matter of why refer to MAGA and CN politics and ideology as "conservative" when they clearly are authoritarian and kleptocratic. At least since the end of WW2, American conservatism was neither authoritarian nor kleptocratic. Pxy's response was very interesting. It responded with this:

The framing reflects a critical evolution in political taxonomy driven by the GOP's ideological realignment. While MAGA and Christian Nationalism (CN) exhibit authoritarian and anti-democratic tendencies, their operational base remains within institutional conservative structures—specifically the Republican Party and allied organizations like CPAC. This creates a taxonomic challenge.

.... long analysis .... 

Conclusion: The Normalization Spectrum
The JBS's CPAC rehabilitation exemplifies authoritarian entropy—the gradual absorption of radical ideas into mainstream conservatism until the Overton Window resets. While MAGA/CN are indeed anti-democratic, their operational home within the Republican Party necessitates framing them as "conservative" in contemporary analysis. This reflects not academic endorsement but recognition of their de facto control over institutional conservatism, as evidenced by: ..... (evidence cited).

The terminology debate itself underscores the success of this normalization: what scholars term "radical right authoritarianism" now occupies the heart of American conservatism.

Wow, Pxy raised the issue of the Overton Window. That's an issue I've raised here several times, e.g., footnote 1 in this post, footnote 1 in this post, and all of this post. Resetting the Overton Window is a key goal of MAGA and CN dark free speech, including their demagoguery, lies and slanders. In my firm opinion, that reset is necessary for mass public support for the rise of an authoritarian American kleptocracy. Is that firm opinion reasonable and evidence-based? Pxy thinks so.

Q: How important is it to the MAGA and CN wealth and power movements to reset the Overton Window so that radical right authoritarianism and kleptocracy are normalized and accepted by enough of society to allow radical right authoritarianism and kleptocracy to flourish in the US?

A: The MAGA and CN movements have made the strategic resetting of the Overton Window—the range of politically acceptable ideas in public discourse—a central pillar of their efforts to normalize radical right authoritarianism and kleptocratic governance in the United States. This deliberate reshaping of societal norms is not incidental but a calculated necessity for these movements to consolidate power, evade accountability, and institutionalize policies that would otherwise face widespread rejection. 

.... long analysis .... 

Think Tank Intellectual Laundering: Organizations such as the Heritage Foundation (architects of Project 2025) and the Claremont Institute provide academic veneers to authoritarian policies, rebranding them as "constitutional originalism" or "election integrity" measures 6 11.

Why Overton Window Control Matters
1. Authoritarian Entrenchment
Radical right authoritarianism cannot survive in a political climate that rigorously defends democratic norms. By shifting the Overton Window, MAGA/CN:

Neutralizes Opposition: Labeling critics as "woke extremists" or "deep state operatives" delegitimizes dissent, a tactic borrowed from the John Birch Society’s Red Scare playbook 1 7.

Legalizes Minority Rule: Voter suppression laws (e.g., strict ID requirements, mail-in ballot restrictions) are rebranded as "election security," normalizing the disenfranchisement of non-Republican constituencies 6 9.

2. Kleptocratic Sustainability
Kleptocracy requires public acquiescence to elite impunity. Overton Window manipulation achieves this by:

Redefining Corruption: Trump’s "pause" on enforcing the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) and his allies’ attacks on the IRS reframe white-collar crime as "bureaucratic harassment" 4 13.

.... more analysis .... 

Conclusion: A Window to Power
For MAGA and Christian Nationalist movements, controlling the Overton Window is existential. By normalizing authoritarianism and kleptocracy, they seek to reconfigure American democracy into a hybrid regime where elections persist but serve merely to legitimize entrenched minority rule. This project’s success hinges on continuous narrative warfare—a battle not just over policies but over the very boundaries of acceptable thought. As the Mackinac Center’s Joseph Overton once theorized, radical ideas become mainstream through relentless promotion; his intellectual heirs now apply this principle to dismantle democratic norms themselves 1 11 15. The window has shifted, but whether it can be wrested back remains the defining political struggle of the decade.