In terms of voter appeal, the Democrats have lousy messaging.
A NYT analysis (
not paywalled) argues that centrist messaging and policy has broader appeal than left wing messaging, e.g., Democratic socialism. The data the NYT bases its analysis on is shown below:
In the last election, three Republicans and 16 Democrats won in districts that voted the other party for president in that district.
The NYT says all 19 of those people are moderates.
Maybe they are moderates, but maybe not. But according to the NYT they campaigned as moderates. Arguably, a person in congress cannot be a moderate if they support any form of authoritarianism or kleptocracy. But that's OT.
Ignoring the matter of actual moderate or not, it feels right to believe that moderate messaging and policy is likely what still appeals to most voters. Unfortunately, in deep red voting districts moderate messaging has been demagogued into the false reality that moderate is radical far left socialism or communism. So in those districts, moderate messaging is probably a loser.
The 16 Democrats who won in red districts are a bit of a surprise. That indicates that at least some republican House voting districts are not yet fully hard core MAGA authoritarian.
Also, it is possible, that the current wave of redistricting will reduce the number of red districts where a Democrat can win, but the same cannot be said about potential Republican losses. After all, there are potentially 16 targets that Republican gerrymandering can aim at most, but only 3 for Democrats.
Anyway, the NYT analysis is blunt but feels reasonable. Too many Americans see the Democratic Party as too liberal, too judgmental and too focused on cultural issues to be credible.[1] The data is clear that voters are rejecting the Dems. The analysis points out that many progressives try to downplay the warning signs but that just isn't true. Progressives believe they can win by quietly retaining all their unpopular positions but openly emphasize economic issues. That only works in deep blue voting districts.
The data is clear on this point. No on in Congress or governor in contested districts or states has won by this progressive strategy of deceit. It's just not working.
Footnote:
1. This is a frustrating issue. Yes, the Dems are too judgmental and over-focused on cultural issues. That apparently costs them credibility. We get it.
But it is just as true that the same applies even more to routine MAGA demagoguery. America's radical right is hellishly judgmental. It's hell bent on ramming theocratic Christian nationalist culture down our throats whether we like or want it or not. Don't think so? What about abortion, voting rights and sanctimoniously discriminating against the LGBQT community? That's not average American policy. It is bigoted, radical right Christian theocrat policy. That's cruel, hard core culture war.
Nobody is perfect here, not Dem, not Repubs. The MSM should take every opportunity to quickly but clearly point this out. But the MSM never does that. That's part of the reason the MSM gets a well-deserved F- for crappy analysis, reporting and commentary.