American warplanes bombed three
nuclear sites in Iran on Saturday night, bringing the U.S. military
directly into Israel’s war with Iran. “NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE,”
President Donald Trump incongruously wrote in a social media post announcing the attacks.
Trump campaigned on ending foreign wars during his 2024 presidential run and has cast himself as a “peacemaker.” In his second inaugural address,
he pledged to “measure our success not only by the battles we win, but
also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we
never get into.” Trump also regularly claims to have opposed the Iraq War from its outset. (He actually supported it.)
“We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan,” Trump wrote on TruthSocial. “All planes are now outside of Iran airspace. A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow.”
The aim of the attacks, American and Israeli officials have said, is
to prevent Iran from building a nuclear bomb. The U.S. intelligence
community says that threat is not, however, real.
“We continue to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that
[Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei has not reauthorized
the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003, though pressure has
probably built on him to do so,” reads the 2025 Annual Threat Assessment
published in March. The assessment serves as the intelligence
community’s official evaluation of threats to “the Homeland,” U.S.
citizens, and the country’s interests. Trump dismissed those and more
recent assessments to the same effect.
Defense experts who spoke with The Intercept warned the United States might be entering into a new round of the forever wars.
“Between enabling Israel in Gaza and all of its operations across the
Middle East, and now these strikes in Iran, we are setting the
foundation for the next generation’s ‘War on Terror,’” said Wes Bryant,
who served until earlier this year as the senior analyst and adviser on
precision warfare, targeting, and civilian harm mitigation at the
Pentagon’s Civilian Protection Center of Excellence.
He questioned the Trump administration’s abrupt shift from negotiating with Iran about its nuclear program to bombing it.
The idea of an “imminent Iran nuclear threat” wasn’t serious a few
days ago, Bryant said. “The fact that suddenly Trump was pulled into
this reactive major strike against Iran under the auspices of nuclear
deterrence is, I think, among the most disturbing red flags of this
administration thus far.”
“Trump’s decision to strike Iranian nuclear targets is a
short-sighted one that will not achieve his stated objectives, brings
significant risks to the United States, and could derail his foreign
policy priorities,” said Jennifer Kavanagh, the director of military
analysis at Defense Priorities, a think tank that advocates for measured
U.S. foreign policy. “To strike Iran while diplomacy was ongoing
undermines his push for peace elsewhere including with Putin. Why would
Russia or any other country negotiate with Trump going forward?”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his military’s objective was to “strike all” of
Iran’s nuclear facilities. He had been pressing Trump to augment
Israel’s attacks with weaponry his country does not possess — namely the
30,000-pound GBU-57s, known as Massive Ordnance Penetrators or “bunker
buster” bombs, that Israel says can destroy Iran’s underground nuclear
enrichment facility in Fordow.
Former defense officials speculated that these weapons — which are so
heavy they can only be carried by U.S. B-2 bombers — were used on
Israel’s behalf during the Saturday attacks.
If Iranian leaders respond to the U.S. strikes with a major
counterattack, such as striking American military bases across the
Middle East, it could set off an escalatory spiral and even more
aggressive U.S. involvement.
“Trump is trying to signal that he wants to get back to diplomacy but
the risk of a wider war is still very real and high. Iran’s
retaliation will determine whether the United States can extract itself
so easily,” said Kavanagh, a former senior political scientist at the
RAND Corporation who served as the director of its Army Strategy
program.
“There is also very little chance Iran will negotiate now because
Trump has no way to provide them credible assurances that if they come
to the table, they will be spared future attacks,” Kavanagh said. “Trump
has sacrificed significant diplomatic leverage for narrow military
gains of uncertain duration, and in doing so, has put the United States
at risk of another costly Middle East war that will further diminish
U.S. global influence and American prosperity.”
More than 40,000 U.S. active-duty military personnel and civilians
working for the Pentagon are deployed across the Middle East. U.S.
troops in the region have come under attack close to 400 times, at a minimum, since October 2023 in response to the U.S.-supported Israeli war on Gaza. Predominantly
led by Iranian-backed militias and the Iranian-allied Houthi government
in Yemen, the strikes include a mix of one-way attack drones, rockets,
mortars, and ballistic missiles fired at fixed bases and U.S. warships
across the region.
Trump struck a ceasefire deal with the Houthis in May. Prior to the
U.S. attacks on Iran, the Houthis threatened to again target U.S. ships
in the Red Sea if Washington joined Israel’s attacks on Iran.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu has expressed his desires for regime change in Iran and not ruled out targeting the country’s supreme leader, saying “no one in Iran should have immunity.” Israel’s defense minister said Ayatollah Ali Khamenei cannot “continue to exist.”
Trump joined in on the threats, pointing out that the U.S. knows
Khamenei’s location and dangled the possibility of assassinating him in
the future.
“We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding. He
is an easy target, but is safe there – we are not going to take him out
(kill!), at least not for now,” Trump wrote on Truth Social earlier this week, before Saturday’s strikes.
“Military force, by itself, is seldom effective in orchestrating
regime change,” Joseph Votel, a retired four-star Army general who
headed both Special Operations Command and Central Command, which
oversees U.S. military efforts in the Middle East, told The Intercept
before the U.S. began its attacks on Saturday.
“There will be ramifications against the U.S. and this should be
discussed and addressed in detail,” Votel warned. “There is no clean
course we can take in this situation.”
by Nick Turse