Election Results 2020: A Numerical Overview___ Part 1: Presidential Elections

By Best In Moderation

The President of the United States is chosen by the Electoral College, who are a group of electors chosen per state to cast votes on behalf of the state. These people are in turn empowered by the results of the popular election in each individual state, with most electing to give all their votes to the plurality winner and some splitting their vote based on the total % voting for each candidate.

As you may imagine, this can cause quite a few discrepancies in voting power per person, difference in voting totals and EC vote totals, and other dynamics. I’ll provide a summary, a highlight list after that, followed by the data per state.

My hope is that you take this opportunity to examine for yourself how the system runs and whether that system needs adjustment.

Summary Presidential Election 2020

The total population of the USA is 328,239,523 as of November 7th 2020.

Out of those, 257,605,090 are over 18 (78.5%)

Out of those, 234,632,885 are eligible to vote (capable, non-felon, etc) (71.5% of total, 91% of over 18). 

155,505,139 elected to vote this year. (66.3% of eligible, 60.4% of over 18, and 47.4% of total).

Democrats won 306 Electoral College Votes (ECV), 56.88% 

Republicans won 232 ECVs, 43.12% 

Each ECV averages out to 610,111 US citizens.

Based on how many people voted, each ECV is worth on average 249,554 voters.

The average number of Democratic voters it took to get one ECV is 263,511

The average number of Republican voters it took to get one ECV is 233,651

74,223,251 people voted for Republican Candidate Donald Trump (47.73%)

81,281,888 people voted for Democratic Candidate Joseph Biden (52.27%)  

Trump won 25 states, and Biden won 26 states (25+DC)

The winner of the 2020 election, Joseph Biden, represents the will of:

34.64% of the eligible voters of the USA

24.76% of the population of the USA 

The EC system turned a 4.5% difference in the vote into a 13.8% difference, an increase of 203%.

Democrats needed 1.13 more voters per Electoral College Vote than Republicans.

The number of extra votes per ECV Democrats needed was 29,860, or 9,137,160 in total 

To equal the GOP ECV, Democrats needed 6,927,520 more votes than Republicans

Highlights Presidential Election 2020

The highest % of eligible voters over 18 is found in Montana, with 98.31%

The lowest % of eligible voters over 18 is found in California, with 84.34%

The highest % of eligible voters per population is found in Maine, with 80.74%

The lowest % of eligible voters per population is found in Delaware, with 55.5%

The highest amount of general votes needed for an ECV is in Florida, with 378,130

The lowest amount of general votes needed for an ECV is in Wyoming, with 89,017

The Republican’s highest ECV amount needed was 360,737, in Florida

The Republican’s lowest ECV amount needed was 63,317, in Alaska

The Democrat’s highest ECV amount needed was 374,583, in Nebraska

The Democrat’s lowest ECV amount needed was 76,872, in Rhode Island

Had Republicans gotten ECV based on % of the vote per state, they would have had 259 ECV, a gain of 26.

Had Democrats gotten ECV based on % of the vote per state, they would have had 279 ECV, a loss of 27.

The top three total votes cast were in California, Texas and Florida

The top three highest voting margins were in DC, Wyoming and West Virginia

The top three lowest voting margins were in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin

The average voter eligibility of all the states who voted for Trump is 94.68%

The average voter eligibility of all the states who voted for Biden is 92.29% 

The average voter eligibility per population of all the states who voted for Trump is 73.40%

The average voter eligibility per population of all the states who voted for Biden is 72.59% 

Lowest turnout was in DC, with 46.62%

Highest turnout was in Delaware, with 91.90%

Average turnout in states going to Trump was 63.14%

Average turnout in states going to Biden was 68.73%

Trump won his states with an average of 1,445,365 votes

Biden won his states with an average of 2,044,675 votes

The average margin of victory for Trump was 20.22%

The average margin of victory for Biden was 18.26%

Outlier Data Per State

Alabama

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Alaska

• Third lowest votes needed per ECV (114,576) 

• Has the third highest discrepancy of Voting Populace to ECV power (149%)

• Has the third highest discrepancy of ECV power to Total Votes Cast (152%)

• Third most people under 18 years of age (24.66%)

Arizona

• Second lowest margin of victory (0.31%)

Arkansas

• Has a high negative discrepancy of Total Votes Cast to Voting Population (-18%)

California

• Has the lowest discrepancy of Total Votes Cast to Voting Population (-0.5%)

• Has the second lowest discrepancy of ECV power to Total Votes Cast (-1.5%)

• If the ECV was more closely related to the state popular vote, 19 ECVs would transfer from Democrats to Republicans   

• Third least % eligible people per population (65.71%)

Colorado

• Third most votes needed per Electoral College Vote (352,107)

Connecticut

• Ninth highest Democratic margin of victory (20.34%)

DC

• Has the lowest turnout in the nation, with 46.62%

• Has the second highest discrepancy of ECV power to Total Votes Cast (158%)

• Has a high negative discrepancy of Total Votes Cast to Voting Population (-30%)

• Has the highest margin of victory at 88.93% 

• Received more than 1600% the amount of Democratic votes as Republican votes

Delaware

• Has the highest turnout in the nation, with 91.90%

• Has the highest discrepancy of Total Votes Cast to Voting Population (39%)

• Most people under 18 years of age (40.33%)

• Least % eligible people per population (55.53%)

Florida

• Has a high negative discrepancy of Voting Population to ECV power (-19%)

• Has a high negative discrepancy of ECV power to Total Votes Cast (-24%)

• Has the second lowest discrepancy of ECV power to Total Votes Cast (-1.5%)

• If the ECV was more closely related to the state popular vote, 14 ECVs would transfer from Republicans to Democrats  

• Most votes needed per Electoral College Vote (378,130)

Georgia

• Has the third lowest discrepancy of Total Votes Cast to Voting Population (0.9%)

• Has the lowest margin of victory at 0.24%

Hawaii

• Eighth highest discrepancy between Electoral College Power and Voter Turnout (105%)

• Fourth lowest turnout in the nation at 55.86%

Idaho

• Fifth highest margin of victory for Republicans at 31.75%

Illinois

• Has the third lowest discrepancy of ECV power to Total Votes Cast (-2.3%)

Indiana

• Based on statewide popular vote, would split their EC votes 6 / 5

Iowa

• Based on statewide popular vote, would split their EC votes 3 / 3

Kansas

• Despite having almost twice the margin of victory as Iowa, would also split their EC votes 3 / 3

Kentucky

• Received almost twice the amount of votes for the Republican party than for the Democratic party

Louisiana

• Based on statewide popular vote, would split their EC votes 5 / 3

Maine

• Least amount of people under 18 years of age (17.83%)

• Most % eligible people per population (80.74%)

Maryland

• Has the third lowest discrepancy of Voting Populace to ECV power (1.11%)

• Received more than 2 times the amount of Democratic votes as Republican votes

Massachusetts

• Third highest Democratic margin of victory at 34.23%

• Received more than 2 times the amount of Democratic votes as Republican votes

Michigan

• Based on statewide popular vote, would split their EC votes 8 / 8

• Small margin of victory (2.83%)

• Fifth highest amount of votes needed for one ECV (340,868)

Minnesota

• Has the second highest discrepancy of Total Votes Cast to Voting Population (17%)

Mississippi

• Seventh lowest turnout, at (58.86%)

• Only state that everyone spells with a song, which makes Massachusetts jealous

Missouri

• Based on statewide popular vote, would split their EC votes 6 / 4

• Low discrepancy scores all around

Montana

• Though it has a slightly higher population than Rhode Island, it has one less ECV

Nebraska

• Despite having a larger margin of victory than Montana by 3%, would split evenly their ECVs if it were based on statewide popular vote (2 / 2)

New Hampshire

• Second least amount of people under 18 years of age (17.93%)

• Most % eligible people per population (79.39%)

New Jersey

• Has the third lowest discrepancy of Voting Populace to ECV power (0.873%)
  
  

New Mexico

• High discrepancies overall, but specifically on ECV power versus Total Voter Turnout (60%, eleventh highest)

New York

• Has the lowest discrepancy of ECV power to Total Votes Cast (-1.3%)

• If the ECV was more closely related to the state popular vote, 11 ECVs would transfer from Democrats to Republicans 

North Carolina

• Has a high negative discrepancy of ECV power to Total Votes Cast (-20%)

• Second most votes needed per Electoral College Vote (362,871)

North Dakota

• Has the third highest Republican margin of victory at 34.43%

• Received more than 2 times the amount of Republican votes as Democratic votes

Ohio

• Has the second lowest discrepancy of Total Votes Cast to Voting Population (-0.6%)

• Has the second lowest discrepancy of ECV power to Total Votes Cast (-1.5%)

• If the ECV was more closely related to the state popular vote, 8 ECVs would transfer from Republicans to Democrats  

Oklahoma

• Has a high negative discrepancy of Total Votes Cast to Voting Population (-19%)

• Received more than 2 times the amount of Republican votes as Democratic votes

Oregon

• 8th highest votes needed for one ECV (328,404)

Pennsylvania

• If the ECV was more closely related to the state popular vote, 10 ECVs would transfer from Democrats to Republicans 

Rhode Island

• 6th highest discrepancy in Voting Populace to ECV power (118%)

• 6th highest discrepancy in ECV power to Total Votes Cast (128%)

• Least populated state to still have 4 ECV 

South Carolina

• Has the lowest discrepancy of Voting Populace to ECV power (-0.03%)

South Dakota

• 7th highest discrepancy in Voting Populace to ECV power (118%)

• 7th highest discrepancy in ECV power to Total Votes Cast (128%)

Tennessee

• Based on statewide popular vote, would split their EC votes 7 / 4

Texas

• Has the second lowest discrepancy of ECV power to Total Votes Cast (-1.5%)

• If the ECV was more closely related to the state popular vote, 18 ECVs would transfer from Republicans to Democrats  

• Second least % eligible people per population (64.78%)

Utah

• Second most people under 18 years of age (26.91%)

Vermont

• Has the second highest discrepancy of Voting Populace to ECV power (162%)

• Third least amount of people under 18 years of age (18.01%)

• Most % eligible people per population (80.11%)

• Received more than 2 times the amount of Democratic votes as Republican votes

Virginia

• 6th highest votes needed for one ECV (336,615)

Washington

• 7th highest votes needed for one ECV (329,522)

West Virginia

• Has the third highest margin of victory at 39.60%

• Received more than 2 times the amount of Republican votes as Democratic votes

Wisconsin

• Has the second lowest discrepancy of Voting Populace to ECV power (-0.17%)

• Has the third highest discrepancy of Total Votes Cast to Voting Population (12%)

• Has the third lowest margin of victory at 0.64%

Wyoming

• Has the highest discrepancy of Voting Populace to ECV power (203%)

• Has the highest discrepancy of ECV power to Total Votes Cast (225%)

• Has the second highest margin of victory at 44.96%

• Received more than 3 times the amount of Republican votes as Democratic votes

Reflections...

 

This article from CNN got me to thinking about aftermaths.

Wednesday, January 20^th, 2021 marks a turning point of sorts for the U.S. Government; a changing of the guard, as they say.  So, like all “goodbyes,” it’s time to look back on a life well badly lived.

It’s time for us political-types, here on DisPol, to start reflecting on what Trump has left in his turbulent wake.  Are there lessons to be learned?  Oh, I think so.

Your Task: Start writing your post-Trump presidency epitaphs, obits, and/or speeches now. 

-Epitaphs are the shortest route.  You know, those “Here lies X,” followed by a single and succinct yada, yada, yada statement about that person.

-Or, if you are the wordy type, make it in a longer “obituary form” like we see in newspapers.  You know, “He was a” this and “he was a” that.  “He left behind a” this, and “He left behind a” that. 

-Or, if you fancy those corporate dinner speeches (or roasts ;) regaling the accomplishments of an outgoing CEO, “What can we say about our company’s leader that we all don't already know?  He was a…. [your speech here].” 

-Or, if you prefer some other route, go for it!  Granny Susan is an easy grader.  Whether rough or polished, everyone gets an “A”!  :)

Don’t delay.  Start working up your “Farewell to DJT" now! Next Thursday, assuming no nukes have gone off and the Earth still stands, I will solicit your responses.

Thanks for participating and recommending.

The Dangerous, Irrational Path Forward

The radical right GOP is struggling with how to maintain power and not lose too much public support. There is a split among hard core supporters of the president and the rest who appear to be uncomfortable to some degree with what he stands for, says and does. 

Regardless, the GOP will continue to act in the GOP's best interest first and in the public interest second. The fundamental struggle stays the same, i.e., concentrated power and wealth (autocracy) on the political right vs. distributed power and wealth (democracy) on the political left. What also looks to be constant is the irrationality and incoherence the radical right seems destined to continue to rely on in its messaging (dark free speech). 

A couple of recent articles support that assessment of the game going forward. A New York Times article discusses GOP thinking about upcoming the impeachment trial. The NYT writes:

But it remained unclear whether the 17 Republican senators whose votes would be needed to convict Mr. Trump by the requisite two-thirds majority would agree to find him guilty. Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, worked feverishly to whip up opposition to a conviction, arguing that it would only further inflame a dangerously divided nation.

Senators considering breaking with the president needed to look no further than Ms. Cheney to understand the risks.

In a petition being privately circulated among Republicans on Capitol Hill, a group of lawmakers led by Representatives Andy Biggs of Arizona, the chairman of the ultraconservative Freedom Caucus, and Matt Rosendale of Montana, claimed that Ms. Cheney’s vote to impeach the president had “brought the conference into disrepute and produced discord.”

“As we figure out where Republicans go from here, we need Liz’s leadership,” Representative Mike Gallagher, Republican of Wisconsin, said, praising her for being “unafraid to clearly state and defend her views” even if they were unpopular. “We must be a big-tent party, or else condemn ourselves to irrelevance.” 

The internal split is obvious. So is the radical right's incoherence and autocratic attitude. Graham's concern about further inflaming a dangerously divided nation is nonsense. The truth is that the GOP has relied heavily on dark free speech to successfully inflame and divide Americans. The radical right needs Americans to be inflamed and divided. By now it is clear that an impeachment is not going to significantly change that. 

The radical right's autocratic core ideology is on display in the rationale attacking Cheney because she “brought the conference into disrepute and produced discord.” What Biggs and the other hard core radical right authoritarians cannot tolerate is dissent within the party. They had their RINO hunts to get rid of internal dissent. The only disrepute to be found in what Cheney did is in the radical right tribe itself. With the rest of the public, what Cheney did created some credibility for the GOP and tended to reduce division, not foment it.

For context, it appears that the insurrection of last week is causing some loss of support for the president. Given that, convicting him of insurrection arguably would be more socially unifying than divisive. 

Disapproval is approaching an all-time high 

In another NYT article on the impeachment, the radical right's heavily biased perceptions of reality and thinking is apparent. That is highlighted in the following:

That the comparisons were apples and oranges did not matter so much as the prisms through which they were reflected. .... But [the president's] allies complained that he had long been the target of what they considered unfair partisan attacks and investigations. “Donald Trump is the most dangerous man to ever occupy the Oval Office,” declared Representative Joaquin Castro, Democrat of Texas. “The left in America has incited far more political violence than the right,” declared Representative Matt Gaetz, Republican of Florida. The starkly disparate views encapsulated America in the Trump era.

Gaetz, a hard core supporter of the president and radical right autocrat, points to political violence of the left as if that somehow justifies what the president did. In this case, two wrongs do not make a right. Gaetz is reduced to blatant irrationality in his attempt to defend and deflect attention from what the president did.  

Assuming that people like Biggs and Gaetz represent the majority of the GOP leadership, the way forward looks to be irrational, reality-detached and dangerous. So far, Cheney's dissent is not the controlling mindset among radical right elites, which Cheney is part of. The threat her mindset poses to rationality and democracy is somewhat less. That appears to be the better part of the radical right.