My New Year's wish for my fellow Americans:

 1. That we all survive (my # 1 wish)

2. That you stop chanting USA USA at every international sporting event

3. Find a sense of humor

4. Learn to love each other again

5. Stop being so obnoxious when visiting other countries

6. Learn to be humble

7. Stop watching Fox News

8. Get out of your partisan bubbles and get to know the "other"

9. Do something for someone else, not just for yourself

10. Become a Snowflake, each one unique and special

And don't get TOO wasted tonight.

Three bits: Buying increased odds of winning in court; DJT’s lawsuit update; A new immunity analysis?

A 2021 research paper, Buying the Verdict, describes how big companies increase the odds of winning lawsuits filed against them by increased advertising and charity donations in local areas where the jury pool resides:

We document evidence that firms systematically increase specialized, locally targeted advertising following the firm being taken to trial in that given location - precisely following initiation of the suit. In particular, we use legal actions brought against publicly traded firms over the 20-year sample period that progress to trial between 1995 and 2014. In terms of magnitude, the increase is sizable: targeted local advertising increases by 23% following the suit. They focus their advertisement spikes specifically toward jury trials, and in fact specifically toward the most likely jury pool. In addition, along with advertising expenditures, firms significantly increase their charitable contributions targeted toward litigated locations following being sued there. Lastly, we document that these advertising spikes are associated with verdicts, increasing the probability of a favorable outcome.

Firms are significantly more likely to initiate advertising in cities (in which it had previously advertised zero), directly following lawsuit – with the probability of advertising initiation increasing by 25%. This results in firms shifting their advertising share significantly to sued locations following suits; both relative to the firm’s total advertising spend, and relative to the total amount spent in that DMA (Designated Market Area) by all other firms.

To concretize this, assume we find that Walmart is sued in Akron, OH in 2001. We see a large spike in Walmart’s advertising in Akron directly following the suit. We see no abnormal movement in Walmart’s advertising policy or spending leading up to the suit. Additionally, Walmart does not increase advertising following the suit in Toledo, OH (a similar sized market with similar growth rates leading up to 2001). Moreover, Target shows no abnormal move in the same sued-location, Akron, OH, at the exact same time that Walmart is ramping up advertising (so it has nothing to do with a general location-time effect).  

We find in this paper general evidence across time, location, and firms, of corporations engaging in this “influencing of the verdict,” behavior. While we focus primarily on advertising, this could certainly take the form of other channels. To explore this further, we collect micro-level data on the charitable contributions of firms’ charitable arms at the zip code level. We find, analogous to advertising expenditures, that firms significantly increase their charitable contributions to a DMA directly following being sued there.

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By now, it’s clear that the federal courts are inherently biased to protect DJT and other white collar criminal elites like him. From what I can tell, it’s mostly a matter of the normal functioning of a corrupted federal legal system. Federal courts strongly favor various forms of elites, almost all being wealthy, famous and/or powerful people and business entities. Our federal courts are simply weak in dealing with white collar crimes. The controlling laws have been mostly written, bought and paid for by elites themselves to protect themselves and their interests.

The Messenger writes about a recent example of courts taking blithering legal nonsense from DJT very, very seriously, dealing with it very, very slowly: 

The federal appeals court in Washington, D.C., on Friday ruled that former President Donald Trump is not immune from lawsuits brought by Capitol police officers regarding the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot.

The order, released on the docket Friday, stated that the former president failed to demonstrate that he was entitled to “absolute presidential immunity from certain civil damages claims against him.”

The judges rejected his argument that his alleged actions “constituted speech on matters of public concern” and that his speech was “invariably an official function."

“The salient question in Blassingame, we explained, was instead whether President Trump’s alleged actions reasonably could be understood as official functions of the presidency, in which case official-act immunity would attach, or, alternatively, whether they reasonably could be understood only as re-election activity, in which case it would not."

The judges added that, after closer review, the claim simply “bears no inherent connection to the essential distinction between official and unofficial acts.”

This lawsuit was filed on March 30, 2021. Instead of sanctioning DJT and his attorneys for filing frivolous arguments, the federal courts have maintained a serious facade about whether a president has immunity for DJT’s role in his 1/6 coup attempt. The judges carefully consider DJT’s legal nonsense. Then they take their time to respond. Each delay is another win for DJT. Delays are serious blows to democracy, the rule of law and respect for truth and sound reason. 

It seems that American democracy is incapable of efficiently defending itself. DJT’s case should have been decided long ago. There is nothing complex in it. The facts are clear and have been clear since the case was filed. Relevant facts have become clearer since 1/6. Nonetheless, here a we are almost 3 years later and the courts are just getting around to responding to some of DJT’s delay tactics in his opening arguments. 

This is how corrupt and/or authoritarian elites win while democracy and truth lose. DJT’s next step will be to appeal to the USSC, which will probably operate with its usual opacity, slop, sloth and now-normal pro-Trump bias. 

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The DC federal appeals court has accepted for review an amicus brief that Republican constitutional scholars filed in Jack Smith’s criminal election subversion lawsuit over DJT’s 1/6 coup attempt. The brief was filed Dec. 12, 2023. The brief asserts an argument against DJT that I am not aware has been formally asserted in any lawsuit against him where he is claiming immunity. 

This argument denies that DJT has immunity for his coup attempt under Article II, Sect. 1, Clause 1 of the Constitution. That article contains the Executive Vesting Clause, which is the only place where the Constitution gives power to a duly elected president. The argument is simple. The Constitution does not allow a duly elected president to stay in power after their term has ended if they have not been re-elected. Here’s the heart of the argument:

The legal scholars argue that preserving the presidency designed by Article II inherently requires rejecting immunity from prosecution for any president’s (or candidate’s) use of criminal conduct in efforts to change officially declared presidential election results. That applies both to acts as a candidate and official acts by a sitting president. They point out that DJT says he acted officially when he allegedly conspired to commit criminal conduct by enlisting Department of Justice personnel to make false statements to state officials to support his efforts to overturn declared state election results. They argue: “If that conduct qualified for absolute immunity, this would improperly unleash a future President to disregard current criminal statutes and deploy the military in efforts to alter the results of a presidential election.” Deploying the military is something that DJT has publicly said he would like to do.

One can see that this reasoning could be seen to provide an explicit basis in the Constitution to deny DJT’s claims of immunity from prosecution. Whether this line of argument will carry significant weight remains to be seen. Why the federal courts themselves have not raised this is a separate and deeply troubling question. The fact that the DC appeals court has signaled it will consider this strongly suggests the judges themselves had not seriously considered it before now. That smells like professional malpractice by the judges.

Two bits: An opinion on democracy 2024; Bad faith politics: An “election integrity” update

WaPo opinion columnist Jennifer Rubin mentions some pro-democracy possibilities:

Opinion  |  2024 resolution: Save democracy

Second, forget about “Why doesn’t the media … ?” Understand that for-profit media outlets are not in the business of making informed citizens. They are in the moneymaking business, which they think entails hyping horse-race politics and stoking fear of bad things (such as the recession that did not happen). You can write letters to the editor and send concise, polite emails to the culprit to call out whataboutism and false balance.

Better yet, look for and help amplify the instances in which print, cable and online media shed their habit of normalizing four-times-indicted former president Donald Trump and level with voters about the authoritarian threat.

Broaden the pro-democracy coalition. Unless the entire pro-democracy movement cooperates to defeat the MAGA movement and its likely nominee, Trump and his cronies will shred our democracy and change the fabric of American life. They are planning what can only be described as a White Christian dictatorship in which they use the military, Justice Department and executive fiat to punish enemies and ferret out dissent.

Now is no time to be picky about anti-MAGA allies. This person might have once supported the Iraq War; that person’s fantasizing about a magical Democratic nominee might drive you up the wall. None of that matters now. Once our democracy is secured, Americans can return to arguing about issues whose importance fades in the face of a dire threat to American democracy.

During the fight to vanquish the MAGA threat, you’ll have to tolerate differences in tactics and policy with other democracy defenders. Bringing everyone into the big tent for democracy and the rule of law is the singular challenge for 2024.

That seems reasonable to me.

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The WaPo Editorial Board commented on the GOP’s bad faith efforts to build “election integrity”:

Opinion  |  States were cooperating on election integrity. 

Then GOP officials quit.

Since 2022, nine states where Republican officials administer elections have quit a nonprofit, nonpartisan consortium that helps keep voter rolls up to date through interstate data exchange. They did so amid pressure from former president Donald Trump, who claimed in March that the consortium “pumps the rolls” for Democrats. Consequently, voter rolls in those states — Alabama, Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, Missouri, Ohio, Texas, Virginia and West Virginia — are less accurate, and it’s becoming harder to detect the small number of people who improperly vote in multiple states. Indeed, as 2024 begins, these same election officials find themselves spending taxpayer dollars to re-create the very tools that the system they abandoned had provided.

Formed in 2012, the Electronic Registration Information Center (ERIC) grew to include 33 states and D.C. It identified 12.5 million people who moved to a different state from the ones in which they were registered to vote as well as almost 600,000 deceased voters still on the rolls. The database worked excellently, before fringe blogs started calling it part of a plot funded by George Soros to boost Democratic registration. ERIC, whose operating costs are paid entirely by member states, received some seed funding from Pew Charitable Trusts, which previously received support from a foundation backed by Mr. Soros, but he has never been directly involved.  

Some GOP secretaries of state who pulled out of ERIC had publicly defended it quite recently. In February, Iowa’s Paul Pate called it “a godsend” and Ohio’s Frank LaRose described it as “one of the best fraud-fighting tools that we have.” Both announced on March 17 that their states would withdraw.

Radicalized, authoritarian, lying, cynically hypocritical GOP elites were never serious about election integrity. They are dead serious about undermining elections and their integrity. They know they cannot win the White House in fair elections, so they cheat.

News bits: Radical evangelicals rejecting Jesus; Capitalism & child labor; Russian war propaganda

Newsweek reports about a shift among a growing number of Trumpist evangelical Christians who are now openly rejecting some teachings of Jesus because they are liberal talking points:

Evangelicals Are Now Rejecting ‘Liberal’ Teachings of Jesus

An evangelical leader is warning that conservative Christians are now rejecting the teachings of Jesus as “liberal talking points.”

Russell Moore, former top official for the Southern Baptist Convention (SBC) who is now the editor-in-chief of Christianity Today, said during an interview aired on NPR’s All Things Considered this week that Christianity is in a “crisis” due to the current state of right-wing politics.

Moore has found himself at odds with other evangelical leaders due to his frequent criticism of former President Donald Trump. He resigned his position with the SBC in 2021 following friction over his views on Trump and a sex abuse crisis among Southern Baptist clergy.

In his NPR interview, Moore suggested that Trump had transformed the political landscape in the U.S. to the point where some Christian conservatives are openly denouncing a central doctrine of their religion as being too “weak” and “liberal” for their liking.

“Multiple pastors tell me, essentially, the same story about quoting the Sermon on the Mount, parenthetically, in their preaching—‘turn the other cheek’—[and] to have someone come up after to say, ‘Where did you get those liberal talking points?’” Moore said.

“When the pastor would say, ‘I’m literally quoting Jesus Christ’ ... The response would be, ‘Yes, but that doesn't work anymore. That's weak,” he added. “When we get to the point where the teachings of Jesus himself are seen as subversive to us, then we're in a crisis.”  

During an interview on conservative network Real America's Voice in January, Trump lashed out at certain evangelical leaders that he said displayed a “great disloyalty” by being reluctant to back his 2024 presidential run.

“That’s a sign of disloyalty,” Trump complained. “There's nobody that did more for the movement than I have. And that includes the movement of evangelicals and Christians and the movement very much of ‘right to life.’”

Again one can see the power of decades of authoritarian radical right dark free speech, now crystallized into a focused, potent political force by DJT, to poison what used to be core Christian values. The political radicalization that Moore describes here is undeniably authoritarian. In my opinion, the driving force is a secular wealth and power movement by elites. It is not Christian. This kind of poison has the power of God behind it. Rational discourse and honest accounts of history are simply not going to change minds that think and believe like this. Our democracy is in an existential fight against autocracy, plutocracy, Christotheocracy, Christian Sharia law, and kleptocracy.

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The NYT reports about child labor in the US:

They’re Paid Billions to Root Out Child Labor 

in the U.S. Why Do They Fail?

Private auditors have failed to detect migrant children working for U.S. suppliers of Oreos, Gerber baby snacks, McDonald’s milk and many other products

One morning in 2019, an auditor arrived at a meatpacking plant in rural Minnesota. He was there on behalf of the national drugstore chain Walgreens to ensure that the factory, which made the company’s house brand of beef jerky, was safe and free of labor abuses.

He ran through a checklist of hundreds of possible problems, like locked emergency exits, sexual harassment and child labor. By the afternoon, he had concluded that the factory had no major violations. It could keep making jerky, and Walgreens customers could shop with a clear conscience.

When night fell, another 150 workers showed up at the plant. Among them were migrant children who had come to the United States by themselves looking for work. Children as young as 15 were operating heavy machinery capable of amputating fingers and crushing bones.

Migrant children would work at the Monogram Meat Snacks plant in Chandler, Minn., for almost four more years, until the Department of Labor visited this spring and found such severe child labor violations that it temporarily banned the shipment of any more jerky.

In the past two decades, private audits have become the solution to a host of public relations headaches for corporations.  

In a series of articles this year, The Times has revealed that migrant children, who have been coming to America in record numbers, are working dangerous jobs in every state, in violation of labor laws.

At least among big American companies capitalism seems to be generally without social conscience in its pursuit of profit. Of course private audits by companies auditing themselves are not going to find any human, environmental or other legal problems. Authoritarian radical right politicians have been undermining child labor laws for some time now. Vox reported last March: Child labor protections are the latest Republican target -- Arkansas is leading the charge against laws that protect kids — despite revelations of dangerous child labor nationwide. 

Boosting profits by eliminating labor laws to protect children is a goal of America's authoritarian plutocrats and theocrats. The plutocrats focus on profit without regard for whether the child is on their own or parents are present. The theocrats focus on what God says the parents can do with or to their kids. That focus is also significantly motivated by money. 

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Russia lied about the number of Ukrainian deaths after a dam broke, presumably on Putin’s orders. Russia reported 59 deaths in areas of Ukraine it controlled, while the AP analysis found hundreds. The AP reports: 

MYKOLAIV, Ukraine (AP) — They recognized the TV repairman.

The residents of Oleshky in Russian-occupied southern Ukraine could not identify many of those they buried after a catastrophic dam collapse in June sent water coursing through their homes and shattered their lives. The bodies were too bloated and discolored, volunteer rescuers and health workers said. They described seeing faces that resembled rubber masks, frozen in that last frenzied gasp for air. But to those secretly keeping count of the drowned, Yurii Bilyi was no stranger.

The cheerful 56-year-old was a town fixture. He had serviced many homes and spent his days working from a shop just across the street from the churchyard where he was buried, in a hurriedly dug mass grave, The Associated Press has learned.

Anastasiia Bila, his daughter, remembers his last words clearly over the unstable phone connection. “Nastya,” he affectionately called her, hoping to soothe her anxieties as flood waters rose quickly, inundating 600 square kilometers (230 square miles), submerging entire towns and villages along the banks of the Dnipro River, the majority in Russian-occupied areas. “I’ve seen worse under occupation.”

Over six months since the catastrophic explosion that destroyed the Kakhovka Dam in the southern Kherson region, an AP investigation has found Russian occupation authorities vastly and deliberately undercounted the dead in one of the most devastating chapters of the 22-month war.

Why do evil, murdering butchers like Putin seem to never go away or die? Guess there’s always an amply supply of them. It’s just part of the human condition. They are here in America too. Just waiting for their chance to to their evil.

Snowflake is back!

 Glad to see we didn't lose any "bits" over the Holidays:

News chunk 'n bits

Various bits

Christmas bits

News bits

News bits: A DJT X-mas msg

Gotta admit I was a "bit" distracted, lazy, absent over the Holidays. Germaine wasn't, he took over my channel 😏

Also, I decided it's time. Yup, it really is. Joe Biden MUST step down. Or be prepared for a 2nd Trump term. 

Anyone been reading up on this guy Dean Phillips. He impresses me. AND he doesn't mind socking it to Biden either.

And I don't mind one "bit" if you disagree with me about Phillips. 

News bits: Immigration - the democracy killer; About the failing rule of law; DJT's origin story & evolution

A tried and true and popular tactic of demagogues, dictators and other flavors of authoritarians is to point to the border and the horrors of immigrants. America’s current Demagogue-in-Chief referred to the issue as a matter of immigrants ‘poisoning the blood’ of the nation. Immigration is an issue that could easily be a democracy killer in the 2024 presidential election. The NYT reports about the latest impending border disaster the radical right will demagogue the hell out of:

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken headed to Mexico City on Wednesday to discuss a surge in illegal immigration as thousands of migrants trek through southern Mexico in a mass movement toward the United States.

Mr. Blinken will meet with President Andrés Manuel López Obrador at a time when border crossings have hit record numbers. There have been days this month when the Border Patrol encountered more than 10,000 people at the southern border.  

Republicans have stepped up their attacks on Mr. Biden over the border numbers, a potential [actual, not potential] vulnerability for the president as he seeks re-election next year.

Tapachula, Mexico, last Sunday 

The crowd heading toward the US 

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A WaPo article points out how complex and weak the laws against white collar crimes are. Even prosecutors can’t figure it out:

An appeals court on Tuesday reversed a conviction that led to the resignation last year of former congressman Jeff Fortenberry (R-Neb.), ruling that he was not tried in the right venue on charges of lying to federal agents about illegal campaign contributions from a foreign billionaire.

The decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit said that Fortenberry’s trial in Los Angeles “took place in a state where no charged crime was committed, and before a jury drawn from the vicinage of the federal agencies that investigated the defendant.”

“The Constitution does not permit this,” the decision said. “Fortenberry’s convictions are reversed so that he may be retried, if at all, in a proper venue.”

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The Undertow is scheduled for release 

March 5, 2024

An interview of investigative journalist Jeff Sharlet by journalist Chris Hedges discusses the origins and sources of the authoritarian Christian prosperity ideology that DJT adopted from three key influencers, his father, Norman Vincent Peale and Roy Cohen. For years Hedges, a presbyterian minister, has been calling this strain of Christianity “fascism” and “an existential threat.” 

At ~1:58 - 9:53, the video summarizes some key points of what Sharlet has pieced together in research for his book, The Undertow: Scenes from a Slow Civil War. Sharlet also calls Christian prosperity ideology fascism. He describes DJT’s public manifestations of his thinking as some form of mysticism. He argiues that DJT’s is not exactly grounded in literal belief of QAnon, but instead of his own deranged, impossible conspiracy fantasies, which he firmly believes are literally true.

This aspect of DJT’s origin story and thinking are new to me. But if Sharlet is right, prosperity gospel Christianity is a key source of inspiration for DJT. Thanks to milo for pointing out this video.

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The Christian Post published an article entitled, TD Jakes: ‘If everything was true, all I got to do is repent sincerely from my heart ... but I ain’t got to repent about this’. The article exemplifies the arrogance and ease at which prosperity gospel elites engage in what their ideology says is moral turpitude, including bad sexual behavior. But like TD Jakes says, even if he did what people say he did, it’s no big deal because he can just repent and everything is good. One can argue that ease of sleaze mindset among prosperity gospel elites is at least some form of Christian authoritarianism. TCP writes:

Days after denouncing an unverified report casting innuendo about his sexuality and accusing him of being a frequent participant at sex parties hosted by producer and music mogul Sean Combs, popularly known as Diddy, televangelist T.D. Jakes called his accusers “liars” on Sunday and noted that even “if everything was true, all I got to do is repent sincerely from my heart.”

Jakes, who leads The Potter's House megachurch in Dallas, Texas, directly addressed his congregation for the first time on Christmas Eve and urged them not to worry about him because “I’m good.”

“Would y'all please do me a favor and stop worrying about me and give God some praise and honor and glory? I can feel you. … I am fine. I'm good. I'm good. I'm the man for the job. I'm good,” Jakes declared in a public livestream of his Christmas Eve service on YouTube which has since been made private.

“I can feel you. I can feel you. Relax ... We’re not gonna let the devil take over our service. No, no, no, no, no. We're gonna give God some praise and some honor and some glory, for this is the day that the Lord has made, we shall rejoice and be glad in it,” he insisted. “I'm not going to let the rain stop me. I’m not going to let the weather stop me. And I'm sure not going to let the liars stop me. 

“The worst that could happen, if everything was true, all I got to do is repent sincerely, from my heart. There's enough power in the blood to cover all kinds of sin. I don't care what it is, the blood would fix it. But I ain't got to repent about this,” Jakes declared.