Etiquette



DP Etiquette

First rule: Don't be a jackass.

Other rules: Do not attack or insult people you disagree with. Engage with facts, logic and beliefs. Out of respect for others, please provide some sources for the facts and truths you rely on if you are asked for that. If emotion is getting out of hand, get it back in hand. To limit dehumanizing people, don't call people or whole groups of people disrespectful names, e.g., stupid, dumb or liar. Insulting people is counterproductive to rational discussion. Insult makes people angry and defensive. All points of view are welcome, right, center, left and elsewhere. Just disagree, but don't be belligerent or reject inconvenient facts, truths or defensible reasoning.

Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Demagoguery and cognitive impairment techniques: Gaslighting, DARVO, Command Overload, Strategic Lying

We need to up our game in terms of understanding the onslaught and associated demagoguery tactics that have been and still are coming for us. 

EXAMPLES
"Blither whatever feels right at the moment, and contradict it the next day." That's classic gaslighting.

"I never said that! You are overreacting! Stop attacking me! You started it! I'm leaving until you calm down".

Cops are trained to disorient by giving contradictory commands; " Don't move! Show me your hands! Don't talk. tell me your name! Stop resisting, hands behind your back, Stop reaching, Hands on your head!' Gun!"

Politicians give contradictory statements. It is a science.


AI ANALYSIS
The statements describe recognized psychological and rhetorical techniques with established terminology in social science and law enforcement contexts. Here's a breakdown:

1. "I never said that! You are overreacting! Stop attacking me! You started it! I'm leaving until you calm down"

Technique: Deflection/DARVO (Deny, Attack, Reverse Victim and Offender) combined with Gaslighting

This pattern employs:
Denial ("I never said that") to evade accountability
Deflection ("You started it") to shift blame
Emotional manipulation ("I'm leaving until you calm down") to control the interaction's framing
Gaslighting ("You are overreacting") to undermine the target's perception of reality 4 6

These tactics are documented in political and interpersonal conflict research as methods to avoid substantive debate and destabilize opponents 4 6 10.

2. Contradictory Police Commands
Technique: Confusion Technique (Milton Erickson-derived method) or Command Overload

Law enforcement training materials explicitly warn against this practice 2, but some departments reportedly use it deliberately.

Creates cognitive dissonance through incompatible orders ("Don't move! Show me your hands!") 1 7.
Overwhelms working memory, inducing compliance via analytical shutdown 1 2 7.
Cited in high-profile cases like Daniel Shaver's shooting and Lt. Caron Nazario's pepper-spraying 7.

Research shows suspects experience auditory exclusion under stress, worsening confusion 2 7.

3. Politicians' Contradictory Statements
Technique: Strategic Lying and Kafkaesque Communication

Documented in political science as:
Strategic ambiguity: Deliberate vagueness allowing multiple interpretations 4 6.
Firehosing: Flooding audiences with contradictions to fatigue critical thinking 1 6. (That sounds like Steven Bannon's flood the zone with shit tactic)
Brandolini's Law: Exploiting the large asymmetry between easy bullshit creation and difficult refutation 4 6.

Examples include Trump's 70% falsehood rate (per Washington Post analysis) and Boris Johnson's fabricated EU regulations 6. Studies show these tactics increase illusory truth effects and tribal loyalty 5 12.

4. Scientific Basis
Cognitive Load Theory:
Overloading working memory to reduce analytical resistance 1 2 7.
Moral Foundations Theory: Framing issues as sacred values to prevent compromise 4 8.
Generics Research: Exaggerating group differences through categorical claims ("All Republicans/Democrats...") 5 12.
Persuasion Architecture: Using alternating confusion/clarity to maintain engagement while preventing scrutiny 1 6.

5. Other common tactics 
A. Scapegoating: Blaming societal problems on out-groups to unite the in-group against a common enemy 10 11.
B. Fearmongering: Evoking fear to provoke emotional responses and discourage rational deliberation 10.
C. Lying: Using falsehoods for emotional effect without regard for truth or consequences.
D. Personal Insults and Ridicule: Attacking opponents to divert attention from substantive issues.
E. Inflammatory Rhetoric: Oversimplifying complex issues into emotionally charged soundbites that polarize audiences 13 14.

Peer-reviewed studies confirm these techniques exploit universal psychological vulnerabilities, making them effective across political and institutional contexts 1 5 6 12. Gaslighting, DARVO, command overload, and similar tactics are integral to the strategies employed by political demagogues. These methods are designed to manipulate emotions, distort reality, and suppress reasoned discourse, all of which shifts power to the demagogue by fostering dependence on their false and misleading narratives.

The rise of hyper-kleptocracy: Trump just pardoned a corrupt bitcoin corporation


In what may be a first in American history, President Trump just expanded the presidential pardon power to include corporations.

Corporations are artificial legal fictions designed to maximize shareholder wealth. Nonetheless, they can theoretically commit crimes and be indicted for them. According to a 1999 memorandum from the Justice Department, the “important public benefits” of prosecuting corporations include “deterrence on a massive scale,” particularly for “crimes that carry with them a substantial risk of public harm,” such as “financial frauds.”

On March 28, 2025, djt granted pardons to not only the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, he also pardoned its kleptocrat co-founders and a kleptocrat senior employee. The pardon grants were full and unconditional pardons. Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Delo, and Samuel Reed are the co-founders of BitMEX. Gregory Dwyer, a former senior employee was also pardoned.

BitMEX had been charged with violating the Bank Secrecy Act by failing to implement anti-money laundering (AML) and "know your customer" (KYC) protocols between 2015 and 2020. The founders had pleaded guilty in 2022 and faced probation sentences along with significant financial penalties. BitMEX itself was fined $100 million for its noncompliance.


BUT WAIT!! IT GETS A HELL OF A LOT WORSE

The Crypto Plot Against America’s Gold Reserves
The crypto “industry” was one of the biggest spenders in the 2024 election. It practically single-handedly bought a U.S. Senate seat in Ohio, turfing out labor’s most reliable senator, Sherrod Brown, with $40 million in advertising. And it convinced Donald Trump to make a 180 with a big sack of campaign contributions. Back in 2021, Trump said crypto was a “scam,” but now he has his own coin, his media site is in discussions to buy a crypto exchange, and he’s fully bought into the claims that the industry is overregulated.

So now that crypto has bought great political influence, it’s time to cash in. How might this happen? The basic idea is to turn the American government into the biggest crypto bag-holder of all time. If the plan goes through, hundreds of billions of dollars of public assets will be spent or leveraged to buy a million Bitcoins, allowing the tiny minority of Bitcoin moguls to finally cash out their holdings into real money. It would be one of the biggest upward transfers of wealth [a/k/a heists] in world history.

At the Financial Times, Toby Nangle explains the various plans. One idea is to loot the Exchange Stabilization Fund, which is largely under the president’s control, and has about $41 billion in net value. A much larger plan has been formally introduced by crypto shill Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY). It’s called the (sigh) Boosting Innovation, Technology, and Competitiveness Through Optimized Investment Nationwide (BITCOIN) Act, and it identifies several public assets that might be drained. One idea is to reduce the capital reserve requirements at the Federal Reserve from $6.8 billion to $2.4 billion; another is to skim off the Fed’s $6 billion in annual money-printing profits.
The article goes on to point out that the biggest part of MAGA's heist scheme is to revalue America’s gold reserves, which amounts to a stockpile of about 261 million troy ounces of gold. That’s about 8,133 metric tons. That gold is valued by statute at $42.22 per ounce, or $11 billion in total. But the market price of gold at time of writing is $2,631 per ounce. That’s more than 55 times as much, or a total of $688 billion. The scammer Lummis proposes the Treasury issue new gold certificates based on the market price, and then using the resulting $677 billion in cash to buy Bitcoins. Her kleptocrat bill requires the government to buy up 200,000 Bitcoins a year for five years, until a “strategic reserve” of a million is accumulated.

A “strategic reserve” of fake money bough for about $700 billion in real money? WTF?? Economists have condemned the reserve plan as a “crypto bailout” for wealthy speculators. Bitcoin’s volatility and lack of intrinsic value make it unfit for national reserves. Paul Krugman argues the scheme is a “rug-pull scam,” comparing it to Argentina’s $Libra token collapse. At present, evidence of explicit theft is circumstantial. However, djt’s actions and track record of criminality align with historical patterns of actual kleptocracy. djt and MAGA elites have weakened oversight by firing inspector generals and directing state resources to allies. That is corruption incarnate. The USSC has gone a long way toward legalizing government corruption in the 2010 Citizens United decision, the 2024 US v Snyder decision and other pro-corruption decisions. 

The USSC cynically calls corruption “free speech.” The court has formally rejected all protections against “the appearance of corruption” and “generalized influence” over policymaking. Those decisions staring with Citizens United in 2010 have enabled (1) a vast expansion of dark money, mostly secret spending by nonprofits and shell companies, reaching $1.1 billion in 2024 elections, (2) dominance in politics of a wealthy donor-class dominance where the top 0.01% of donors now account for 42% of federal campaign contributions, and (3) legalized self-enrichment for politicians like Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) who leveraged federal court rulings to repay $545,000 in personal campaign loans using post-election donor funds. Collectively, those federal court decisions reflect a broad trend of insulating politicians and donors from accountability while equating money with protected political speech.


Q: Is it hyperbolic or irrational to use the term hyper-kleptocracy or even just kleptocracy to describe djt and his corrupt, authoritarian MAGA wealth and power movement? Or, was government about equally corrupt before djt came on the scene in 2016?

Tuesday, April 1, 2025

NRx: America's favorite brand of authoritarianism for the young 'uns



INTRODUCTION
This post is about some origins history and ideology of a political movement I just found out about earlier this morning. It can be called NRx (neoreactionary authoritarianism) or the Dark Enlightenment. That or things like "neo-monarchism" or "CEO-monarchism", is what the two key founders of this toxic ideology advocate. Those folks are hard core ideologues with rock solid beliefs in their own irrational fantasies. They hold a false belief that what they are arguing for will address all the grievances young people have about government and their lives. 

Of course, those personal opinions are tentative because they are based on my currently limited knowledge of NRx, its founders and its influence on post-boomer generations. 

From what I can tell so far based mostly on Pxy deep dives into their training, experiences and accomplishments, neither of the two main blowhards, Ted Beale (calling himself "Vox Day") and Curtis Yarvin ("Mencious Moldbug") are experts in anything particularly relevant to politics. They have no academic qualifications in political science or theory, sociology, moral philosophy or history. They don't even have any relevant professional life experiences. Apparently their main accomplishments are being pissed off all the time and writing a lot about why they believe that democracy sucks and having a "benign" CEO-dictator would be better. 

Just like all of my blogging, they do blogging that is not peer-reviewed. Unlike my blogging, they have convinced a lot of unhappy young people and a few cynical billionaires that they have something of great insight and value to offer. Maybe as I learn more about these self-deluded authoritarians, my opinion will shift. But right now, they look to me like almost perfect blind (inexperienced), arrogant stooges for far more educated, experienced, ruthless and intelligent MAGA elites to exploit.


A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF NRx
To avoid TL/DR syndrome I'll offer a couple of bullet points and leave it at that for now.
  • Origins: Old-time conservatives believe the US Constitution was good and worth fighting for. NRx rejects that belief. NRx blowhards argue that the US Constitution has been destroyed by corruption, liberalism and moral decay. Apparently that has significant appeal to pre-baby boomer generations, the young 'uns. The NRx claims are hyperbolic and not fact-based. Yarvin and Beale’s solution of authoritarian governance, and rejection of Enlightenment values ignore democratic resilience and historical precedent. Their contempt for progressives and institutionalists reflects an enraged, naïve nostalgia for imagined hierarchies. What they propose is not a coherent vision for governance in the public interest. They propose what MAGA wants, a kleptocratic dictatorship in the elites' interest. Although the NRx Poo-Bahs believe their CEO-dictator will be nice and work for us, cognitive biology, social behavior and history all say otherwise. Facts and rationality are no on the side of NRx ideologues.
  • Attacking old-fashioned conservatism: The Constitution’s Enlightenment emphasis on reason, individual rights, and limited government has underpinned democratic stability globally so far. NRx offers no viable alternative to liberal or pluralist democracy. Instead, it offers irrationally romanticized feudalism and corporate autocracy. NRx and its young 'un followers have no loyalty to the US Constitution. Yarvin and Beale, reject neoconservative figures, e.g., William F. Buckley, as outdated. They accuse old-style conservatives of selling out the Constitution and “worshiping the corpse” of a broken system.
  • MAGA's insinuation into NRx: JD Vance and Blake Masters have cited Yarvin’s “RAGE” (Retire All Government Employees) strategy, advocating mass firings of civil servants to dismantle the “deep state”. In terms of ideological alignment with MAGA, Yarvin’s 2025 New York Times interview (not paywalled) shows his growing influence among Silicon Valley elites, e.g., Peter Thiel, and djt-aligned politicians seeking to centralize power and kill democracy.

This guy thinks he's hot stuff, but he's
just grumpy, arrogant, self-deluded and dangerous

  • Pragmatism or arrogant, blowhard bullshit: NRx is framed as offering pragmatic solutions to modern complexities and legitimate criticisms of democracy and the Constitution. The generational shift within conservatism, from constitutional reverence to authoritarian, NRx-aligned anti-constitutionalism underscores the ongoing ideological shift on America's political right. As older institutionalists and conservatives fade away, battles will center on whether political and social accountability can be had in a system of governance based on secrecy and alleged "corporate efficiency" vs messy democracy and the rule of law. Authoritarianism does not operate on the basis of transparency, equity or empathy. In a real democracy there is at least some of that. One commentator observed that "the snarky tone of ironic superiority grates on the reader, both just because it’s a bad tone, and because there is no reason for the reader to believe that Yarvin has earned it."
What happened to the young 'uns? I think their brains got trapped in and poisoned by social media with its copious amounts of pseudo-science, pseudo-intellectualism and care-free but opinionated ignorance and arrogance.


Arrogant Blowhard Syndrome
is strong with this one

Monday, March 31, 2025

MAGA bits: Privatizing the entire federal government; djt's 'compassion'; Reducing court power

The WaPo reports (not paywalled) about MAGA's efforts to  privatize all of the federal government:

DOGE wants businesses to run government services ‘as much as possible’
Mail delivery. Real estate. Foreign aid grants. The Trump administration is moving to privatize a sweeping number of government functions and assets — a long-standing Republican goal that’s being catalyzed by billionaire Elon Musk.

The slash-and-burn approach of Musk’s U.S. DOGE Service is paving the way for a new shift to the private sector, reducing the size and power of the federal bureaucracy in a real-world test of the conservative theory — a version of which is also widely popular in Silicon Valley — that companies are better than government at saving money and responding to people’s needs.

At the DOGE-allied General Services Administration, officials are quietly moving ahead with a push to sell hundreds of publicly owned buildings to private companies — which can then lease them back to the government, theoretically saving maintenance and upkeep costs for taxpayers, according to two people briefed on internal deliberations who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss them publicly.

A Wall Street investor nominated to run the International Development Finance Corporation, a little-known foreign investment agency that works to align the private sector with U.S. foreign policy goals, has suggested redirecting a large portion of the $40 billion budget of the shuttered U.S. Agency for International Development to investors, start-ups and companies that work in developing countries.
The possibilities for corruption on a scale unparalleled in human history are opening up to MAGA elites. The market for running government functions is worth a few trillion per year in sales and who knows what in profits. 

Q: Do you believe the Silicon Valley assertion that companies, especially after MAGA deregulation, are better than government at saving money and responding to people’s needs?
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The BBC reports: Trump says he 'couldn't care less' about higher car prices -- But the US president told NBC News on Saturday that he hoped foreign carmakers will raise prices as it meant "people are gonna buy American-made cars - we have plenty". .... 25% tariffs on cars and car parts entering the US to begin on 2 April. Charges on businesses importing vehicles are expected on 3 April, and taxes on parts are set to start in May or later. When asked about what his message was to car bosses, he said: "The message is congratulations. If you make your car in the United States, you're going to make a lot of money."

Guess what happens when imported product prices increase due to tariffs? This is what happens: Domestic producers have an opportunity to raise their prices without losing competitive position, so that is what they do. The evidence on this point is clear and consistent. Domestic producers raise their prices to match or approach the higher prices of their foreign competitors. That ripples through consumer prices beyond just the imported products to include competing domestic products. djt and MAGA have just imposed a gigantic price hike on consumers and I don't see much public complaining about it, yet. 
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The House is mulling over a proposed law to seriously reduce federal trial court power. The proposed law, the No Rogue Rulings Act of 2025, limits the power of federal courts to issue nationwide injunctions. What prompted this is MAGA's blatant unconstitutionality in its policies and actions. MAGA elites and djt are furious that the courts are stopping their illegal acts by issuing injunctions. If passed into law, this would take power from the courts and give it to djt. Apparently congressional MAGA authoritarians really do support the "unitary executive" concept where djt gets close to true dictator power. The bill is scheduled for a floor vote in the House today.

Presumably the bill would fail in the Senate, unless those authoritarian MAGA elites vote to get rid of the filibuster. The urge to get rid of the filibuster must be intense. MAGA elites really do want to steamroll everything that djt wants to do. As far as I can tell, the filibuster is the last big thing standing in djt's way in congress. If that falls, I think that djt and MAGA will be unstoppable.

Sunday, March 30, 2025

MAGA chunks: Energy sector gets payoff, consumers get shafted; Deporting foreign students


DOE withdraws, postpones multiple appliance energy efficiency rules
“We are returning freedom of choice to the American people,” Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said in a statement

DOE has “officially withdrawn four conservation standards, including standards on electric motors, ceiling fans, dehumidifiers, and external power supplies,” the agency said in a statement. “This continued commitment to the American people will slash unnecessary red tape and regulations that raise prices, reduce consumer choice, and frustrate the American people.”

The natural gas sector hailed the announcement as a win for consumer choice, while efficiency advocates warn the decision could add billions to utility bills.

While delaying or not finalizing rule updates begun under the previous administration isn’t particularly noteworthy, deLaski said DOE’s decision on electric motors is different. That rule was signed by a DOE official and put out to the public, but was not published in the Federal Register.

“And that’s a big rule … a massive amount of energy consumed in industry and commercial buildings is in electric motors,” deLaski said. The rule was supported by manufacturers and utilities, he added, leading to the fundamental question: “When is a rule final?”

The now-withdrawn rule for electric motors was expected to save American businesses up to $56 billion on utility bills and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 156 million metric tons over 30 years of sales, ASAP said in January, pointing to DOE estimates.
When I hear anything that any MAGA elite says is good for us, I disbelieve it and assume the opposite is closer to the truth. In this case, by fact checking led to a finding that even before the DOE got captured and poisoned by djt and MAGA, it apparently was captured and poisoned by the carbon energy sector and/or manufacturers. 

Research from the Appliance Standards Awareness Project and the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy found that the DOE historically overestimated the price impacts of efficiency standards. Across nine regulation cases they studied, the DOE projected an average price increase of $148 per appliance, but the actual average change was a $12 decrease in manufacturer's selling price. This directly contradicts the MAGA lie that increased efficiency standards automatically raise consumer prices. A typical household saves about $320 per year due to current standards. That is projected to increase to about $460 annually by 2030. Over the lifetime of efficient appliances, these energy bill savings typically outweigh any initial cost increases by a ratio of 4 to 1.

Also, contrary to claims that regulations reduce consumer choice, evidence suggests that efficiency standards have historically driven innovation and expanded options. For example, modern refrigerators use 75% less energy than 1973 models but afford 20% more storage capacity. Modern clothes washers use 70% less energy than in 1990 with 50% more tub capacity. Those are significant.

Peanut: America is governed with scientific ignorance, religious bigotry, misogyny, homophobia, transphobia, xenophobia and racism, and you expect them to get electric motors right? So much for "choice", which ranks right up there with "waste, fraud, and abuse" as things that don't mean what they say.

So once again, not surprisingly, corrupt MAGA elites are lying to us about what is good for us. They shamelessly tell us that something actually bad for us and the environment is good for both. I agree with Peanut. 
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The Times of India reports about targeted foreign students being asked by MAGA to self-deport:

Hundreds of international students wake up to an email 
asking them to self deport for campus activism
Hundreds of international students in the US are getting an email from the US Department of State (DOS) asking them to self-deport owing to campus activism. Immigration attorneys’ contacted by TOI affirmed this development and added a few Indian students may also be at the receiving end of such emails – for something as innocuous as sharing a social media post. It is not just international students who physically participated in campus activism but also those who shared or liked ‘anti-national’ posts that are the target of these emails, said an immigration attorney.

.... new student applications be it for an F (academic study visa), M (vocational study visa) or J (exchange visa) will also come under such social media scrutiny. Applicants will be denied the opportunity to study in the US.

Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, has launched an AI-fuelled ‘Catch and Revoke’ effort to cancel the visas of foreign nationals who appear to support Hamas or other designated terror groups. Axios further reports that more than 300 foreign students have had their student visas revoked in the three weeks that ‘Catch and Revoke’ has been in operation ....

[The DOS email includes these comments:] "Remaining in the United States without a lawful immigration status can result in fines, detention, and/or deportation. It may also make you ineligible for a future U.S. visa. Please note that deportation can take place at a time that does not allow the person being deported to secure possessions or conclude affairs in the United States. Persons being deported may be sent to countries other than their countries of origin."

"Given the gravity of this situation, individuals whose visa was revoked may wish to demonstrate their intent to depart the United States using the CBP Home App."

"As soon as you depart the United States, you must personally present your passport to the U.S. embassy or consulate which issued your visa so your visa can be physically cancelled. You must not attempt to use your visa as it has been revoked. If you intend to travel to the United States in the future, you must apply for another U.S. visa and a determination on your eligibility for a visa will be made at that time."
They may be sent to countries other than their countries of origin? Given the gravity of this situation? WTF is going on here? What is MAGA blithering about? Other than MAGA constantly lying to us and killing our democracy, civil liberties and rule of law, there is no grave situation. This looks like MAGA racism and bigotry. That's the only explanation that makes at least some sense to me. I wonder if this is legal. It seems to violate due process law and procedural steps in deportations, such as a hearing notification at least 14 days before proceedings, and an opportunity to contest grounds of deportability.
 
To MAGA, the rule of law is crap to be ignored if it gets in the way, or distorted and weaponized if it is useful. What an effing mess.

The history of US involvement in the Ukraine war: The killing machine




The NYT describes its investigation (not paywalled) of the US-Ukraine alliance in a very long and detailed history of US involvement. The investigation shows a deep, secretive partnership, centered at a US Army base in Wiesbaden, Germany. Key points:
  • For nearly three years before President Trump's return to power, the US and Ukraine were in a clandestine collaboration involving intelligence, strategy, planning, and technology. This partnership was largely unknown to most American and allied officials.
  • The U.S. established an operation called Task Force Dragon to assist Ukraine in using advanced weaponry effectively. This task force was pivotal in providing targeting information to Ukrainian forces.
  • American and coalition intelligence analysts at Wiesbaden would daily prioritize targets, identifying Russian military units, equipment, or infrastructure. They used satellite data, radio signals, and intercepted communications to locate Russian forces, then transmitted the coordinates to Ukraine.
  • There were tensions due to differing strategic views. Ukrainian leaders were sometimes seen as overly ambitious, while US officials were considered too cautious. This led to disagreements, particularly during Ukraine's counteroffensive in the summer of 2023.
  • Ukraine's ability to strike significant Russian targets, like the cruiser Moskva, without prior US knowledge, caused surprise and anger among US officials. This highlighted a gap in expectations and communication between the two nations.
  • NATO established a new command in Wiesbaden to coordinate training and equipment donations to Ukraine, aiming to increase interoperability between Ukrainian forces and NATO.
  • Despite the change in US administration, NATO and European allies have pledged long-term security assistance to Ukraine, with significant financial commitments to support Ukraine's defense efforts.
  • This partnership was instrumental in Ukraine's military operations against Russia, providing not just material support but also strategic and intelligence assistance.
  • By US count, the killing machine has killed or wounded more than 700,000 Russian soldiers. Ukraine puts its casualty toll at 435,000.
  • In his last weeks in office, Biden made moves to support the Ukraine. He crossed his own final red line by expanding the ops box to allow ATACMS and British Storm Shadow strikes into Russia. That was prompted by North Korea sending thousands of troops to help the Russians dislodge the Ukrainians from Kursk.
  • Growing distrust between the US and Ukraine poisoned the collaboration, and djt eventually made it worse. 

With the djt and MAGA elites now openly supporting Russia and backing away from supporting the Ukraine, and with NATO and the EU unable to get their act together, it looks like the Ukraine is toast. The question is, how horrendous will the end be?