Predictions & reactions to the election

I predict that by Nov. 1, 2026, before the next off-year election, America will have drifted into solidly authoritarian status. 

The peak of American civil liberties arguably was the time after same-sex marriage was made a right in 2015. An apex period for civil liberties ended in June 2022 when the radicalized USSC killed off a national right to an abortion. Of course throughout that time, the USSC was eroding voting rights, so the apex period was not fully stable.

By 11/1/26 pressure will be applied to quiet major critics of Trump and authoritarianism generally. Newspapers and comedians will have softened their tone. Federal funding for NPR and PBS will either be shut off, or they will be turned into authoritarian propaganda outlets. The Voice of America will be turned into an authoritarian propaganda outlet. 

The Environmental Protection Agency will be gutted and neutered by then. All new federal judges will be radical right authoritarians. Federal lawsuits against Trump will be dropped. State lawsuits probably will too. The treasonous 1/6 insurrectionists will be pardoned.

Four forms of authoritarianism are now contending for P&W (power and wealth) with not much standing in their way. The first, is the drive for a unitary president, i.e., a dictator. A lot of powerful Americans want a unitary president. Also contending for P&W are Christian theocracy, unregulated capitalist plutocracy and single party rule. Deeply embedded in all four of those is kleptocracy, which is closely associated with authoritarianism. 

By 11/1/26, the flow of power and wealth to those 4 variants of authoritarianism will be noticeable. For example, the we can expect the Trump and his GOP to conduct an American variant of the democracy-killing campaign that Viktor Orban used to kill Hungarian democracy in two years. The Dems may not be able to regain federal power for a long time. The Dem party itself might fracture. How well the competing four get along with each other is unclear to me. They overlap quite a lot making analysis of that basically impossible.

We can reasonably expect that ethics rules will fall completely away and government operations will be heavily shrouded in secrecy. The GOP and/or the USSC might even completely get rid of freedom of information laws to try to prevent evidence of authoritarian corruption, incompetence, oppression and bigotry from ever becoming public. Trump has made it clear that he will gut the deep state, leaving only corrupt, incompetent loyalists left to run government operations.

For most low income Americans, the economic pain will start to seriously hurt. They are screwed. The middle class will also start to feel the bite of P&W flowing from them to the elites. 

If the Repubs maintain control of the House, I expect the Senate to get rid of the filibuster. That would give Repubs in congress free reign to pass whatever laws they want with no serious opposition from Dems. The only requirement there would be unity within the GOP, something that Trump is more than capable of imposing on them.

There will be hideous genocide in Gaza, Lebanon and the Ukraine. The Ukraine will fall to Putin and his brutal vengeance. The slaughter will be savage. All global democracies will be under increasingly intense pressure to go authoritarian. The last stand for global democracy will be Europe's democracies, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and little or nothing else.   

The Dems demise? Illegal immigration, a bad economy and scary demography/social changes were probably the biggest issues in this election that killed the Dems off. But I do wonder about how much of the fear, anger and resentments that drove voter to Trump are real and how much the product of dark free speech (lies, slanders, crackpot conspiracies, deceit, irrational emotional manipulation, etc.). My guess? About 20% real and ~80% dark free speech mirage. 

I could go on and on and on like this, but those exemplify the kinds of reactions and predictions that are running through my mind at present. I do believe that by 11/1/26, all of these predictions will turn out be be at least significantly true, i.e., ~40-80% true if one could quantify it. In essence, by then we will have witnessed the death of American democracy, imposition of major limits on civil liberties, lots of bigotry and oppression of target groups (the LGBQT community is royally hosed), staggering corruption in government, commerce and Christianity, and the rule of law converted into the rule of the thug, with elites who tow the authoritarian line above the law and the rest of us screwed. 

We have well and truly screwed the pooch this time.

I do hope my predictions prove to be wrong. That would be wonderful. 

I do not know if it is still safe for me to post criticisms like I do, or if it is still safe for people to comment here. That is something I am just starting to think about. At the moment, I think it will be safe because I am too small a pipsqueak to bother with. But there is some uncertainty in that. 

Election day

Poll closings, Eastern time:

Presidential historian Jon Meacham writes an opinion for the NYT (not paywalled):

I thought I knew what we were dealing with. When Donald Trump began his rise to power in 2015, he struck me as a dangerous but recognizable demagogue.

Then he proved me wrong. His concerted efforts to overthrow the November 2020 election very nearly succeeded — tangible proof that he is in fact willing to follow through on the authoritarian threats he so freely makes. I now see him as a genuine aberration in our history — a man whose contempt for constitutional democracy makes him a unique threat to the nation.

[Historical] analogies come naturally to me. Yet more and more, I fear that trying to find historical precedents for Mr. Trump presents dangers of its own. No similar figure in American history has ever had such a strong grip on so many. To suggest otherwise diminishes the sense of urgency the moment requires. I wish I were overstating the case. But I am not.  

That his attempted coup failed should not be grounds for dismissing the threat he poses; rather, that it was attempted at all should persuade us not to endanger the constitutional order again. And to dismiss his own radical words as well as the concerns of those who worked with him that he harbors dictatorial ambitions is to put faith in a man who has already shown himself to be more interested in himself than in the nation, more devoted to his aggrandizement than to the Constitution.

As I read that, I listened to NPR interviewing a Republican and other opinionators. The Repub says says DJT loves the US has has no authoritarian intent. An non-Repub opinionator says that DJT has too short an attention span to seriously contest the constitution. Too short an attention span? 

NPR and most other MSM sources continue to treat DJT as just a normal politician doing normal things, not an abnormal monster doing monstrous things. To those news sources I award a fair, balanced and well-deserved grade of F since Trump's 1/6/21 coup attempt for abysmal reporting about politics and DJT in particular. They still call him a conservative, not an authoritarian which he clearly is.  I've written to them and made this complaint, so I did what I could do.

I don't know what else to say.

Any thoughts?

This is it!

 

The hour(s) has finally arrived.  It’s presidential Election Day in the U.S.

For all us political junkies here, it’s "last call" for your 11:59:00 pm predictions.

For example:

• Will the polls be accurate?  I.e., will the vote be razor thin?

• How long before the race gets called (later tonight … tomorrow … next week)?

• Will there be any riots/violence in the aftermath?

• Other (you tell me)

Give your last-minute assessment of what you are expecting.

(by PrimalSoup)

Various bits: Blog note; Poll note; Chaos note; Violence note; Headlines

Blog note: Regardless of whether Harris and the Dems generally win or lose tomorrow or in the days following the election, please try to maintain control of emotions. Don't gloat over Trump losing. In recent posts, I've argued that America is in a generations-long battle of deeply corrupt authoritarianism vs less corrupt democracy. 

If Trump wins, that could be the decisive battle that leads to the end. But if he wins, pro-democracy, pro-honest, competent government people will need every possible ally they can get in hopes of saving our rule of law-based democracy and our civil liberties. Along the way to establishing his corrupt dictatorship, Trump and his enablers will have to do a lot of anti-democracy things. Each of those bad things need to be pointed out and the democratic damage they cause stated clearly and respectfully. Maybe some allies will come of that defense tactic. Alienating, disrespecting or insulting rank and file MAGA people as a whole will not be helpful in the long-term war against the various forms of American authoritarianism vying for power no matter how the elections turn out, even if Harris wins.

That said: I strongly endorse Harris. GO HARRIS!

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Poll note: Each Day I watch the polls. In the last few days I sensed a shift from net Trump support to net Harris. The Iowa poll yesterday showing Harris beating Trump was part of that. However, the situation is so complex that I am unsure of how much weight to give the polls. My intuition has flipped from thinking DJT would narrowly win to now thinking Harris will narrowly win. 

I suspect that those commercials showing women voting for Harris but keeping quiet or saying they voted for DJT is resonating with some women. There seem to be an awful lot of angry husbands out there who are rabid DJT supporters. That could be something the polls cannot pick up on. Also, it appears that Biden's incredibly idiotic and insulting assertion that Trump supporters are garbage is not going to hurt Harris nearly as much as I initially thought. Initially, I thought Biden's comment was going to be the last nail in the Harris coffin. 

In the history of modern polling, there’s never been a race where the final polls showed such a close contest. If the poll averages are exactly right down to the decimal (they will not be), Ms. Harris would barely need to outperform the polls to prevail.

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Chaos note: I was aware that authoritarian MAGA Republicans were planning to unleash a massive wave of lawsuits if Trump loses. I was rudely told yesterday by an exceptionally well-informed interlocutor that I was seriously misinformed and needed some slapping around to wake me up. So, I Perplexited (not a real word, yet) it:  

Q: Have oner 100 lawsuits been filed by Republicans to lay the groundwork for fomenting chaos if Trump loses the election? Apparently that has happened, but it is being poorly reported by the MSM.

A: It appears that Republicans and the Trump campaign have indeed filed a significant number of lawsuits related to the 2024 election, though the exact number is not explicitly stated as over 100. However, the information suggests an aggressive legal strategy aimed at challenging various aspects of the election process. 

Republican Legal Strategy: The Republican National Committee (RNC) and the Trump campaign have adopted a more aggressive pre-election legal strategy compared to 2020. This strategy includes: Implementing an "election integrity" program with 100,000 volunteers and attorneys in battleground states. Engaging in over 130 election lawsuits across 26 states, according to an RNC official.

The lawsuits filed by Republicans cover various aspects of the election process: Challenging voter registration procedures, contesting rules for overseas voting, questioning the certification of voting machines, and attempting to restrict mail-in voting.  

In conclusion, while the exact number of lawsuits is not confirmed to be over 100, the search results indicate a significant and coordinated legal effort by Republicans to challenge various aspects of the election process. This strategy appears to be more extensive and organized compared to 2020, potentially setting the stage for contesting the election results if the outcome is unfavorable to Trump.

I stand corrected. I was misinformed. A lot of lawsuits are flying right now. We can expect a heck of a lot more if DJT loses the election.

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Violence note: In my opinion, widespread violence is highly unlikely if DJT loses the election. But there could be scattered violence. But there is some indication (not paywalled) of some violence being plausible:

On Telegram, a Violent Preview of What May 

Unfold on Election Day and After

Groups backing former President Donald J. Trump recently sent messages to organize poll watchers to be ready to dispute votes in Democratic areas. Some posted images of armed men standing up for their rights to recruit for their cause. Others spread conspiracy theories that anything less than a Trump victory on Tuesday would be a miscarriage of justice worthy of revolt.

“The day is fast approaching when fence sitting will no longer be possible,” read one post from an Ohio chapter of the Proud Boys, the far-right organization that was instrumental in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. “You will either stand with the resistance or take a knee and willingly accept the yoke of tyranny and oppression.”  

A New York Times analysis of more than one million messages across nearly 50 Telegram channels with over 500,000 members found a sprawling and interconnected movement intended to question the credibility of the presidential election, interfere with the voting process and potentially dispute the outcome. Nearly every channel reviewed by The Times was created after the 2020 election, highlighting the growth and increased sophistication of the election denialism movement.

Geez, we have an election denialism movement bubbling up! What next, a vaccine denialism movement or a global warming denialism movement? Oh yeah, we already have those. Never mind.

Q: How many of those authoritarian blowhards are actually willing to get off the computer, load up their guns and stomp into the streets to shoot at whatever targets they pick? (IMO, very few, maybe several dozen) 

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Trump, in Increasingly Dark and Dour Tones, Says He ‘Shouldn’t Have Left’ the White House

Reading the Auras of Democrats and Republicans on the Eve of the Election -- According to daily polling from Civiqs, which has been charting America’s mood about the direction of the United States, the vibes around this so-called vibes election have been strikingly stable.

Dem vibes

Repub vibes

(more fearful than the Dems)

The election is uncertain, but it might not be close -- Close polls don’t tell the whole story. It’s not unlikely that if we see a typically sized polling error, one candidate — Donald Trump or Kamala Harris — could run away with the election

GOP primed to back Trump if he contests election

Some dark humor

You have to prioritize

the imminent threat --

Choose paint color or call fire dept?

News bits: My path to political clarity; A really big court fine; Gaza; Trump's list of stolen election lies

Briefly, it took years for clarity about politics to come to me. The depth and breadth of the authoritarian threat was not at all clear to me in the 1970s or 1980s. I didn't start to wake up until about 1997 or 1998. In 1998 I started studying the science of politics and engaging in online politics. By about 2000-2002 it was sinking in that the GOP leadership was radicalizing and drifting into authoritarianism. By about 2006, it became clear to me that authoritarian radicalization mostly (~90% ?) contained in years of ruthless dark free speech was spreading to the rank and file and seriously taking hold. I'm a slow learner.

☹️

It is now also clear that most humans tend to be slow unlearners. Specifically, it will take decades to unlearn the authoritarianism that  decades of authoritarian radical right propaganda taught millions of Americans. Neutralizing the authoritarian threat is going to take a mountain of unlearning by the radicalized public. I don't know how to do that. Maybe it is impossible under current circumstances. A heck of a lot of adult Americans think us non-authoritarians need to unlearn what we believe.

What does the non-radicalized pro-democracy public need to learn and unlearn? Probably some things, but I don't know what they are.

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A Russian court has fined Google $20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 for blocking the content of Russian media sources:

To put that into perspective, the World Bank estimates global GDP as around $100 trillion, which is peanuts compared to the prospective fine. Google would therefore have to find more money than exists on Earth to pay Moscow - but on Tuesday fell a little short of that mark when it posted $88 billion quarterly revenue.

The bizarre amount has been calculated after a four-year court case that started after YouTube banned the ultra-nationalist Russian channel Tsargrad in 2020 in response to the US sanctions imposed against its owner. Following Putin's illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2022 more channels were added to the banned list and 17 stations are now suing the Chocolate Factory, including Zvezda (a TV channel owned by Putin's Ministry of Defence), according to local media.

"Google was called by a Russian court to administrative liability under Art. 13.41 of the Administrative Offenses Code for removing channels on the YouTube platform. The court ordered the company to restore these channels," lawyer Ivan Morozov told state media outlet TASS.

The court imposed a fine of 100 thousand rubles ($1,025) per day, with the total fine doubling every week. Owing to compound interest (Einstein's eighth wonder of the world), Google is now on the hook for an insane amount of money, or what the judge on Monday called “a case in which there are many, many zeros.”

Dang, the fine doubles every week! 

😮

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Florida sent a reminder to the U.S. Department of Justice that they are not allowed to send monitors to polling locations after the DOJ sent a press release announcing the planned visits.

The Justice Department announced Friday that it “plans to monitor compliance with federal voting rights laws in 86 jurisdictions in 27 states for the Nov. 5 general election.”

The DOJ said they “regularly deploy” staff to “monitor for compliance with federal civil rights laws in elections in communities all across the country.”

Florida Secretary of State Cord Byrd wrote an email to the Deputy Chief at the U.S. Department of Justice Voting Section, Jasmyn Richardson, that said: “As a reminder, Department of Justice monitors are not permitted inside a polling place under Florida law.”

He cited 102.031 (3)(a) of the Florida statutes, which lists those who are allowed inside of a polling place.

“Department of Justice personnel are not included on the list,” he wrote.  

“Even if they could qualify as ‘law enforcement’ under section 102.031 (3)(a) of the Florida Statutes, absent some evidence concerning the need for federal intrusion, or some federal statute that preempts Florida law, the presence of federal law enforcement inside polling places would be counterproductive and could potentially undermine confidence in the election,” he said.

Florida calls federal election monitors a "federal intrusion." What they are actually thinking is that federal election monitors constitute a federal invasion and declaration of war against their precious tyranny. That is how authoritarians see their sacred right to undermine elections. American authoritarian tyranny supporters are now just itching for excuses to pick fights and file lawsuits.  

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No good news comes from Gaza:

All those who remain in northern Gaza — especially children — are “at imminent risk of dying” from disease, famine and ongoing bombardments there, UNICEF’s executive director warned.

The World Health Organization reported an attack Saturday on a health-care center in Gaza City, where a polio vaccination drive was taking place. At least six people, including four children, were injured, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said, adding that the attack took place during a humanitarian pause that Israel agreed to.

The IDF said that it was “aware of claims” that civilians were injured at the clinic, but that “an initial review determined that the IDF did not strike in the area at the specified time.”

There we have it. The IDF didn't do it. Someone else did blew up the health-care center where polio shots were being administered to children. Since he is a rabid anti-vaxx crackpot, I think RFK Jr. did it. 

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The WaPo published a long analysis article (not paywalled) including quotes by DJT listing ways the Dems intend to steal the 2024 election:

13 ways Democrats will steal the election 

(according to Trump)

“It’s the only thing they do well, they cheat. Their policies are no good. Their government is no good. Their management is no good, but they cheat like nobody can cheat.” — Former president Donald Trump, remarks about Democrats in Wilmington, North Carolina, on Sept. 21

Here’s an assessment of the claims made by Trump and his allies — some repurposed from those he made in 2020, and some newly conjured for 2024. Be alert for projection, a hallmark of Trump claims: He likes to accuse others of what he himself has done or would try.

1. Migrant noncitizens will vote in droves

2. Polling places will have lax rules

3. Media coverage will favor Democrats

4. Prosecutions are election interference

5. ‘Americans’ abroad will cast illegal votes

6. Democrats will harvest ballots

7. GOP poll watchers will be obstructed

8. Voting machines will be rigged and hacked

9. Private money will favor Democratic voters

10. Dead people will vote (my favorite!!)

11. The weather will be used against Trump (yeah, go figure that one out)

12. The Fed’s rate cut is election interference

13. The Democratic nomination was a coup

Two points, if I may.

• In my firm opinion, that list is solid evidence of how powerful America's RRA (radical right authoritarian) infrastructure has become. Even just 30 years ago, a Republican candidate for president spewing that list of blatant lies, even without Trump's public record of horrors, would not have had any chance of being nominated by the Republican Party. That list would have been laughed out of the GOP and relegated to the crackpot RRA fringe where it came from. But now, that crackpottery and extremism have been normalized and accepted as mainstream RRA dogma among GOP elites and most of the rank and file.

• I take that list of lies, slanders, crackpottery and cynical ill-will as deeply insulting. It is insulting to see all Democrats smeared as crooks, traitors and liars by a lying jackass who actually is a convicted felon, a traitor, a sex predator and a chronic liar.  And when I hear the defense, but all politicians lie, it sickens me. Trump's lies are in support of authoritarianism, deep corruption, bigotry, oppression and some other Dark Ages horrors. He is not anywhere close to pro-democracy, pro-civil liberties or pro-honest government. He is not a regular politician. He is a morally rotted, enraged, vengeful demagogue. It is unpersuasive to cite lies by all politicians as justifying any lying at all. Lies by authoritarian politicians and partisans seeking to kill democracy and civil liberties by deceit, mendacity, stealth, coercion and any other tactic, immoral or not, are not the same as lies by pro-democracy politicians and partisans. 

A personal commentary by Snowflake

 Believe me when I say this: I really enjoy the back n forth on this channel. I enjoy arguing with those who disagree with me, because - most of the time - we do it respectfully.

Yet, I have made a decision about the upcoming week. I will NOT be present. Probably starting Tuesday. 

What has irked me in the last couple of weeks is how much worse it has gotten and how much worse it is GOING TO GET regardless of the election results. 

In fact, I don't know which will be worse........

Trump winning, or Trump losing.

A win will usher in weeks of machismo from one side, lots of gloating, rubbing salt into our wounds.

BUT can we honestly say, we won't be tempted to do the same if our side wins? Rubbing their noses in it? 

I do attend other debate forums, and the vile has become more vile than ever. Especially around stories like this one:

https://www.wesa.fm/politics-government/2024-10-31/mount-pleasant-parade-kamala-harris-pennsylvania

Which garbage remark was more offensive? Pick a side. Never mind they were BOTH offensive. One side says their garbage comment "was a joke" while the other side says Joe Biden just "misspoke."

I have a question too for our friend Germaine. Have you considered posting any guidelines about election night or the day after? Reason I ask: refugees from other Disqus channels that could come on here gloating if Trump wins or making threatening comments if Trump loses?

Worse: Will we automatically attack anyone who celebrates Trump's victory, even if they are within the rules? I suspect we know better, but it's still a question worth asking.

I have - ALMOST - lost faith in the American people. But I also remain an eternal optimist. But I will NOT be watching coverage on election night, nor likely next day, I will even avoid turning on any Canadian news channels. Me and my lady have already told all we know don't be calling us with results. We will watch movies or some of our favorite TV shows. 

I know - as pretty much everyone else here knows - that it is going to be ugly. Even to the point - dare I say it - where a lot of people, both out there AND on debate forums and social media are going to lose their cookies.

I hope that the regulars here and Germaine will understand my reluctance for being on here and I will probably not even take part in any discussions on my own channel.

I hope Kamala wins. I hope civility survives. I hope we can all move forward after this election. 

I also hope I will win a lottery, and what are the chances of that?

Be back some time in the future, till then, cheers to all my friends (or otherwise) on here.