By Best in Moderation
So I've been going over some numbers recently, talking to folk about how the US system is entirely off kilter in terms of representation, and this seems to be more and more relevant as Democrats push for more voter access and rights.
It's nice that they are doing that of course, but I'm about to rain on their parade by showing that it probably will not matter. Here's why.
TLDR:
- Democrats are at a disadvantage when there are less Democrats in the state, but Republicans are not.
- Democrats have a far more severe disadvantage in being not represented in the US House (28%) than Republicans do not being represented in the US Senate (10%).
- Democrats have a 9 seat deficit and Republicans have a 7 seat surplus, for a total of 16 seat Democratic disadvantage in the US Senate based on population and voter registration.
- Democrats have a 7 seat deficit and Republicans have a 16 seat surplus, for a total of 23 seat Democratic disadvantage in the US House based on population and voter registration.
- Democratic Senators need on average 900K more votes than their Republican counterparts, and draw from a much larger population (35% more), with Californian Senators needing 69 votes for every 1 in Wyoming.
Analysis
Out of the 25 States with the least number of Republicans:
- 7 are Deep Red States
- 4 are Red States
- 3 are Purple States
- 4 are Blue States
- 7 are Deep Blue States
Out of the 25 States with the least number of Democrats:
- 8 are Deep Red States
- 4 are Red States
- 3 are Purple States
- 3 are Blue States
- 6 are Deep Blue States
So we already see Point 1:
- Democrats are at a disadvantage when there are less Democrats in the state, but Republicans are not.
4,120,823 Republicans live in States where they have no Representatives
5,278,138 Democrats live in States where they have no Representatives
28% more Democrats are entirely unrepresented in the US House than Republicans
39,032,785 Democrats live in states where they have no representation in the US Senate.
43,154,966 Republicans live in states where they have no representation in the US Senate.
While this seems like a better stat for Democrats, the US Senate is not a representative body in the least, and the fact that 10% more Republicans are entirely unrepresented in the US Senate isn't nearly as impactful as the US House disadvantage.
So we have Point 2:
- Democrats have a far more severe disadvantage in being not represented in the US House (28%) than Republicans do not being represented in the US Senate (10%).
Underrepresentation is even more of a hit.
12 States should, based on voter registration and population, have more Democratic senators, including 2 States that should have 2 but have none. 5 States have a Democratic Senator where it was not expected to have one.
5 States should, based on voter registration and population, have more Republicans senators.
11 States have a Republican Senator where it was not expected to have one, including 1 State that should not have had even 1.
That means that in the US Senate, Democrats have 9 less seats than expected, while Republicans have 7 more than they are expected to have.
What should be a 33% advantage becomes 0% in reality.
There should be 80 Independent US Reps based on party affiliation and population. There are 0.
There should be 193 Democratic US Reps based on party affiliation and population. There are 221.
There should be 162 Republican US Reps based on party affiliation and population. There are 214.
There are 19 States with less Democratic Representatives than expected, for a total of 24 Seats.
There are 12 States with less Republican Representatives than expected, for a total of 17 Seats.
There are 18 States with more Democratic Representative than expected, for a total of 53 Seats.
There are 29 States with more Republican Representative than expected, for a total of 69 Seats.
What should be an 18% seat advantage in the House becomes only a 3% advantage in reality.
So we have Point 3 and 4:
- Democrats have a 9 seat deficit and Republicans have a 7 seat surplus, for a total of 16 seat Democratic disadvantage in the US Senate based on population and voter registration.
- Democrats have a 7 seat deficit and Republicans have a 16 seat surplus, for a total of 23 seat Democratic disadvantage in the US House based on population and voter registration.
In the 22 states where Republicans hold a monopoly on the Senate:
- The average vote per seat is 2,195,423
- The range is from 222,157 to 10,783,568
- The total maximum voter population is 96,598,605
In the 21 states where Democrats hold a monopoly on the Senate:
- The average vote per seat is 3,096,433
- The range is from 384,734 to 15,291,230
- The total maximum voter population is 130,050,166
Taking the other 7 states into account, we get:
- Average vote per seat of 1,979,123
- Range of 254,931 to 5,083,030
- Max Voter Population of 27,707,720
So for 2 fewer seats, Democrats need 901,010 more votes per seat on average, with a higher minimum and maximum votes per seat, with a population 35% bigger.
Point 5:
- Democratic Senators need on average 900K more votes than their Republican counterparts, and draw from a much larger population (35%), with Californian Senators needing 69 votes for every 1 in Wyoming.
In the 8 states where Democrats hold a monopoly in the House
- There are 24 seats.
- Average vote per seat is 567,726
- Range is from 427,028 to 769,468
- The total maximum voter population is 13,814,174
In the 8 states where Democrats hold a significant majority (over 100% advantage) in the House:
- There are 137 seats, 105 of which are Democratic ones (77%).
- Average vote per seat is 590,253
- Range is from 547,141 to 670,114
- The total maximum voter population is 79,172,117
This means that there are 16 states with strong Democratic representation, containing 129 Democratic seats out of 161 total, and representing 92,986,291 people, for a Total vote per seat of 577,554 and a Democratic vote per seat of 720,824.
In the 11 states where Republicans hold a monopoly in the House:
- There are 26 seats.
- Average vote per seat is 586,977
- Range is from 444,313 to 839,418
- The total maximum voter population is 14,894,286
- There are 80 seats, 63 of which are Republican ones (79%).
- Average vote per seat is 576,919
- Range is from 544,534 to 606,957
- The total maximum voter population is 46,118,621
- An average vote per seat of 590,985
- A total maximum possible voter population of 100,357,293
For Democrats, that's a 32 EC vote total from the Senate and 161 from the House, for a total secure EC base of 193 votes.
They make up 12,758,740 potential voters and 5,256,296 Democratic voters.
That means 472,546 & 194,678 votes per EC respectively, and is another 5% of the Democratic base.
Of the 4 leaning Republican, 92 Electoral Votes are available.
They make up 51,522,367 potential voters and 20,049,033 Republican voters.
That means 560,026 & 217,924 votes per EC respectively, and is another 21% of the Republican base.
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