On average, Americans' political party preferences in 2021 looked similar to prior years, with slightly more U.S. adults identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic (46%) than identified as Republicans or leaned Republican (43%).
However, the general stability for the full-year average obscures a dramatic shift over the course of 2021, from a nine-percentage-point Democratic advantage in the first quarter to a rare five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter.
Both the nine-point Democratic advantage in the first quarter and the five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter are among the largest Gallup has measured for each party in any quarter since it began regularly measuring party identification and leaning in 1991.
Shifting party preferences in 2021 are likely tied to changes in popularity of the two men who served as president during the year. Republican Donald Trump finished out his single term in January, after being defeated in the 2020 election, with a 34% job approval rating, the lowest of his term. His popularity fell more than 10 points from Election Day 2020 as the country's COVID-19 infections and deaths reached then-record highs, he refused to acknowledge the result of the election, and his supporters rioted at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in an attempt to prevent Congress from counting the 2020 Electoral College votes.
Fortune magazine commented on that data: “That’s a swing of 14 points in just one year, the largest shift Gallup has seen in its 30 years of polling.” Gallup also reported this, which omits data about people who lean to one party or the other:
Fortune also wrote this:
Rep. Tim Ryan, a Democrat from Ohio, told The New York Times that “it seems like the Democrats can’t get out of their own way. The Democrats have got to do a better job of being clear on what they’re trying to do.”
Steadfast supporters of the Democrats are also showing their frustration. Members of some civil rights groups boycotted Bidens’ voting rights speech in Atlanta last week because they were disappointed with his inability to push the issue. Six of Biden’s former public health advisers also aired their criticisms of his handling of the pandemic.
“How do you plan to win back moderates and independents who cast a ballot for you in 2020, but polls indicate they are unhappy with the way you’re doing your job now?” a reporter asked [of Biden in a press conference].
The president simply answered, “I don’t believe the polls.”
What does this mean?
Unless something changes, Democrats are probably going to lose control of the House in the 2022 elections and maybe also the Senate. If the comments by Bien and Ryan are good evidence, Democrats are befuddled about how to get their messages out to the public. In the information vacuum, more than enough Americans are willing to give power back to the Republicans. Those Americans act like they do not see much threat to democracy, elections or anything else from the GOP to not consider voting for its candidates. Typical thinking and behavior still appear to be the norm.
Many Americans do not see through the deceit, mendacity, emotional manipulation, and crude but effective partisan motivated reasoning that dominates GOP rhetoric and propaganda. They cannot see that the GOP has become seriously anti-democratic and seriously autocratic-theocratic.
Making matters worse, America's significantly neutered professional news media is doing a dismal job of explaining the authoritarian GOP threat. On this issue the MSM deserves a grade of F in my opinion. F- if there was such a thing. On the other hand, radical right sources, like the GOP's main propaganda organ Fox News, are doing a great job. Radical right deceit, blame shifting, responsibility avoidance, emotional manipulation, reality denial by silence, crackpot partisan reasoning, etc., is top notch stuff.
Millions of Americans falsely believe that Fox speaks truth and sound reasoning. Those people cannot see the Republican threat. Their minds are trapped in an alt-reality based on alt-facts, an emotional train wreck and crackpottery that passes for serious political discourse.
Acknowledgment: Thanks to Snowflake for mentioning the Gallup poll and the Fortune magazine article.
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