White Replacement Theory and the erosion of democracy

A warning sign on the street

Context

After the ex-president won the 2016 election, with Putin's probably necessary help, theories about what happened started circulating. One prominent early theory held that many people hated Hillary and/or were miffed at economic stagnation. Also in the mix was an argument that rural folk were indignant over arrogant urban elites looking down their noses at rural bumpkins. They believed the hated urban elites disrespected them and their way of life. Another was that low information voters were being deceived and manipulated by divisive partisan echo chambers like Faux News. Other theories postulated growing acceptance of crackpot, divisive conspiracy theories, e.g., Democrats are lizard people, Democrats want to outlaw all guns, make Christianity illegal and then convert Christians to atheists in re-education camps, etc. 

There was some truth in all of those theories. For example, data indicated that some people really did hate the real and/or Republican propaganda version of Hillary*** and would not vote for her, so they voted for no one or for the ex-president. But researchers probing the mystery of 2016, started to identify a different reason as the possible most important source of support for the ex-president. It was a combination of (i) unease among White people, especially Christian men, about their and privileges rights being subordinated to racial and ethnic minorities, and (ii) unease about a perception of America's weakening place in the world. Theis idea came to be called White Replacement Theory or some variant that gets at the concept such as ethnic antagonism. It is discussed in this interview that NPR broadcast in 2021 with an expert, Kathleen Belew. Republican propaganda played on White fear to help the GOP to create unwarranted distrust, unwarranted intolerance, irrational false beliefs in lies, slanders and nonsense, intractable division and polarization, etc.

*** The GOP propaganda version of Hillary included Pizzagate pedophile, Benghazi murderer and email server traitor. Who could ever vote for that horror?

Unhappy White folks

Some of the research

In a 2018 paper, Status threat, not economic hardship, explains the 2016 presidential vote, Researcher Diana Mutz wrote this:

This study evaluates evidence pertaining to popular narratives explaining the American public’s support for Donald J. Trump in the 2016 presidential election. First, using unique representative probability samples of the American public, tracking the same individuals from 2012 to 2016, I examine the “left behind” thesis (that is, the theory that those who lost jobs or experienced stagnant wages due to the loss of manufacturing jobs punished the incumbent party for their economic misfortunes). Second, I consider the possibility that status threat felt by the dwindling proportion of traditionally high-status Americans (i.e., Whites, Christians, and men) as well as by those who perceive America’s global dominance as threatened combined to increase support for the candidate who emphasized reestablishing status hierarchies of the past. Results do not support an interpretation of the election based on pocketbook economic concerns. .... Candidate preferences in 2016 reflected increasing anxiety among high-status groups rather than complaints about past treatment among low-status groups. Both growing domestic racial diversity and globalization contributed to a sense that White Americans are under siege by these engines of change. 

For the first time since Europeans arrived in this country, White Americans are being told that they will soon be a minority race. The declining White share of the national population is unlikely to change white Americans’ status as the most economically well-off racial group, but symbolically, it threatens some Whites’ sense of dominance over social and political priorities. Furthermore, when confronted with evidence of racial progress, whites feel threatened and experience lower levels of self-worth relative to a control group. They also perceive greater anti-White bias as a means of regaining those lost feelings of self-worth.

Some recent posts here have emphasized (for about the 40th time) the nearly complete loyalty shift among Republican politicians and elites from nobler ideals such as respect for democracy, the Constitution and truth to more base impulses, e.g., (i) urges to neo-fascism, (ii) acceptance of harsh rule by a corrupt, cynical strong man and elites, and (iii) heavy reliance on bitterly divisive propaganda-fueled mendacity, slanders and crackpottery. Fear of White replacement appears to be linked to the Republican Party shift away from democracy. A 2020 research paper by Larry Bartels, Ethnic antagonism erodes Republicans’ commitment to democracy, comments:

Growing partisan polarization and democratic “backsliding” in various parts of the world have raised concerns about the attachment of ordinary Americans to democratic institutions and procedures. I find that substantial numbers of Republicans endorse statements contemplating violations of key democratic norms, including respect for the law and for the outcomes of elections and eschewing the use of force in pursuit of political ends. The strongest predictor by far of these antidemocratic attitudes is ethnic antagonism—especially concerns about the political power and claims on government resources of immigrants, African-Americans, and Latinos. The strong tendency of ethnocentric Republicans to countenance violence and lawlessness, even prospectively and hypothetically, underlines the significance of ethnic conflict in contemporary US politics.

Most Republicans in a January 2020 survey agreed that “the traditional American way of life is disappearing so fast that we may have to use force to save it.” More than 40% agreed that “a time will come when patriotic Americans have to take the law into their own hands.” (In both cases, most of the rest said they were unsure; only one in four or five disagreed.) I use 127 survey items to measure six potential bases of these and other antidemocratic sentiments: partisan affect, enthusiasm for President Trump, political cynicism, economic conservatism, cultural conservatism, and ethnic antagonism. The strongest predictor by far, for the Republican rank-and-file as a whole and for a variety of subgroups defined by education, locale, sex, and political attitudes, is ethnic antagonism—especially concerns about the political power and claims on government resources of immigrants, African-Americans, and Latinos. The corrosive impact of ethnic antagonism on Republicans’ commitment to democracy underlines the significance of ethnic conflict in contemporary US politics. 

The support expressed by many Republicans for violations of a variety of crucial democratic norms is primarily attributable not to partisan affect, enthusiasm for President Trump, political cynicism, economic conservatism, or general cultural conservatism, but to what I have termed ethnic antagonism. 

The single survey item with the highest average correlation with antidemocratic sentiments is not a measure of attitudes toward Trump, but an item inviting respondents to agree that  “discrimination against whites is as big a problem today as discrimination against blacks and other minorities.”

White replacement and illegal immigration already is and will be   

a major focus of Republican propaganda in the 2022 elections

Inflation and this issue will probably be key factors in the Democrats 

losing the House and Senate in 2022, assuming they lose