The decline of rural America

I have posted several times about the decline of the rural economy (here and here). The phenomenon is not unique to the US. For example, in the 1970s, the Soviet Union government decided to abandon support for rural areas as they go from sustainable economic independence to dependence. Abandoned Russian villages are reverting to primordial forests with packs of wolves freely roaming the land. In Russia, that was a decision driven by economic reality coupled with an incompetent, deeply corrupt, authoritarian government. 

By contrast, the US has pumped vast amounts of money into rural areas that can no longer self-sustain. This topic is important because it is political and has been highly weaponized by America's authoritarian radical right wealth and power political-social movement. This will probably be a significant issue, maybe major, in the 2024 election.

A recent NYT article discusses this again: 

‘Too many old people’: A rural Pa. town reckons with population loss

There is a deepening sense of fear as population loss accelerates in rural America. The decline of small-town life is expected to be a looming topic in the presidential election.

May 31, 2024, Main Street in Sheffield, Pa.

Deaths outpace births

SHEFFIELD, Pa. — Lee Goldthwaite might have the most stable job in this remote corner of northwestern Pennsylvania.

The caretaker of Sheffield Cemetery is busier than ever directing crews clearing trees to make space for more graves as deaths dramatically outpace births here and in other vast stretches of rural America. Each time he buries a newly deceased resident he wonders how the town that once drew scores of young families will survive.

“We already lost our bank,” Goldthwaite said as he took a break from trimming the grass around headstones. “We lost our liquor store, and we may be about to lose our high school.”

Across rural Pennsylvania, there is a deepening sense of fear about the future as population loss accelerates. The sharp decline has put the state at the forefront of a national discussion on the viability of the small towns that have long been a pillar of American culture.

America’s rural population began contracting about a decade ago, according to statistics drawn from the U.S. Census Bureau.

A whopping 81 percent of rural counties had more deaths than births between 2019 and 2023, according to an analysis by a University of New Hampshire demographer. Experts who study the phenomena say the shrinking baby boomer population and younger residents having smaller families and moving elsewhere for jobs are fueling the trend. 

The Center for Rural Pennsylvania, an agency overseen by the state legislature, estimates that Pennsylvania will lose another 6 percent of its rural population by 2050. Some counties, including Warren County, where Sheffield is located, will experience double-digit population declines.

State lawmakers and other leaders now consider the population loss a crisis and are drawing up plans to try to reverse the trend. They say neither Pennsylvania nor the nation can afford to lose small towns and the institutions that power them. Not only are they a touchstone of American life, but they are also key to driving certain sectors of the economy, like agriculture.

Sheffield’s only ambulance was taken out of service about two years ago, around the same time the community’s only day care closed due to low enrollment. Starting this school year, teens are being bused to a distant high school because there are not enough teachers to staff the local one.

Residents are peeved that the local bank branch and liquor store have closed. The organizers of the town’s beloved Johnny Appleseed Festival recently announced they don’t have enough volunteers or money to continue. And many of Sheffield’s churches no longer have full-time priests or pastors, deepening residents’ sense of malaise.

“I wish I had an idea to say, ‘If you do this,’ this place can be turned around,” said Jack Cashmere, 86, a lifelong Sheffield resident. “But I guess you just have too many old people like myself.”

In 1980, Sheffield Area Middle-Senior High School had about 600 students. The current enrollment is just 224. The broader Warren County School District — encompassing most of the county — also saw its school enrollment decline by more than half since 1980.

As the presidential election approaches, many residents in this deeply Republican town say they view Trump as having a better vision for salvaging rural America, even though Biden has steered billions of dollars to initiatives that support rural America.

But at the Lee House, one of two remaining bars in Sheffield Township, many patrons were not optimistic that either Trump or Biden has the answers needed to save the community. The bar, which dates back 150 years and advertises on its front door that smoking is still allowed indoors, now routinely closes at 9 p.m. due to “fewer and fewer people,” said Carla Allen, the bar’s owner.

“I don’t want either of them for president,” said Barb Strike, 54, as she puffed on a Parliament cigarette and sipped a Bud Light. “They don’t care about us because no one in this town is rich enough for them to care.”

Kenneth M. Johnson, the demographer at the University of New Hampshire, said the deck remains stacked against most rural communities, except for those within proximity to larger metropolitan regions or those with industries that rely heavily on immigrant labor. “Barring some outside occurrence, it’s very unusual for counties to recover,” Johnson said.

The political implications of this are easy to see. America's authoritarian demagogues will demagogue this issue and blame Biden and liberals for something that they themselves have been and still are powerless to stop. In modern American radical right politics, inconvenient reality does not exist. Fake reality based on irrational attacks and demagoguery is what authoritarianism must have to thrive on and grow powerful.

People like Barb Strike will not hear or believe much or anything about the failing efforts of America's political center and left to protect rural people and their communities. What they will hear plenty of is authoritarian Faux News, the authoritarian radical GOP and the dictator DJT lying, slandering and demagoguing the issue. Despite their great noise and smoke, cynical authoritarian demagogues will not provide plausible solutions to the problem of rural decline.