Q: Is there social science research that indicates whether the ~50% MX group (mixed/conditional responders) in your table flip from the HD mode of thinking to the HF mode, or is their mode of thinking a simultaneous mix of both the HD and HF modes? What mode of reasoning in the MX group does the available evidence and expert opinion mostly support?A: Conditional Reasoning in the “MX” Majority: Flip-Flop or Hybrid Thinking?
Political‐communication, cognitive‐psychology, and neuroscience studies converge on a nuanced portrait of the 40–50% “mixed/conditional responders” (MX) who fall between high-demagoguery (HD) and high-fact (HF) audiences in susceptibility to persuasive messages. Evidence overwhelmingly indicates that MX reasoning is conditional—they may “flip” toward either HD-style heuristic processing or HF-style analytic processing depending on motivation, cognitive load, and identity threats—but that flip occurs against a constant backdrop of simultaneous, low-effort heuristics. In short, both processes run in parallel; shifts in dominant mode, not wholesale replacement, explain MX behavior.
Pragmatic politics focused on the public interest for those uncomfortable with America's two-party system and its way of doing politics. Considering the interface of politics with psychology, cognitive biology, social behavior, morality and history.
Etiquette
Thursday, July 10, 2025
Understanding types of mental responders to different kinds of political messaging & psychological pressure
Wednesday, July 9, 2025
Regarding the history of propaganda: Bloody Mary
We voted for this, right?
* Well actually, "go pound sand" is implied not stated. One always need to stay fair and balanced.
Q3: Summarize the main facts or reasons in your two analyses in up to 10 bullet points of 1-2 sentences each (3 sentences if necessary) stating why Trump's and MAGA elites' assertions that "we voted for this" is only ~5-10% true.A3: Summary: Why Trump's "We Voted for This" Claim is Only 5-10% TrueElectoral and Democratic Legitimacy Issues
- Trump won with only a plurality (49.8%), not a majority - meaning over 50% of Americans never voted for his agenda, fundamentally undermining claims of broad democratic mandate.
- Significant voter regret emerged quickly - 25% of Trump voters expressed disappointment or regret, with 47% of moderate Trump supporters showing regret, indicating they didn't get what they expected.
Systematic Deceptive Framing
- Trump explicitly rejected Project 2025 during the campaign but implemented two-thirds of its recommendations - this represents a fundamental betrayal of campaign promises and deceived voters about his actual agenda.
- Deregulation was framed as "freedom" from oppression but actually transferred wealth and power from average Americans to corporate elites [and Christian nationalist elites, IMHO] - voters were told they'd be liberated but instead lost worker protections, consumer safeguards, and environmental protections.
- Trump's rhetoric about defending Christians from "oppression" masked policies that actually empowered religious elites to discriminate - the framing deliberately conflated religious freedom with the right to oppress marginalized communities.
Policy Implementation Contradictions
- Economic policies produced opposite effects from campaign promises - Trump's tariff implementation caused market volatility and inflation concerns, with 56% disapproving of his economic management including 20% of his own voters.
- Federal workforce cuts through DOGE affected Trump-supporting areas - massive layoffs contradicted voter expectations that cuts would only target "elites" or opposing political groups.
Violation of Democratic Consent Principles
- Healthcare policies included significant Medicaid cuts despite Trump's promises to leave it "alone" - his "Big Beautiful Bill" directly contradicted campaign assurances about protecting social programs.
- Systematic deception invalidated informed democratic consent - following Sissela Bok's analysis [moral reasoning], Trump's lies about policy consequences prevented voters from making autonomous, informed choices about their governance.
- The deception was "culpable ignorance" - Trump's administration knew the true consequences of their policies but deliberately concealed them - this wasn't accidental misinformation but intentional deception to gain power through false premises.
Supreme Court’s 2025 Funding Freeze Ruling: A New Era of Unchecked Executive Powe
In April 2025, the Supreme Court allowed the Trump administration to freeze federal education grants to universities and non-profits in 8 states, a move justified by allegations that certain programs were “discriminatory” due to their association with Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives. Universities challenged the freeze, arguing it violated Congress’s constitutional power of the purse (Article I, Section 9) and the Impoundment Control Act. A federal district court sided with the universities, issuing an injunction to restore the funds, emphasizing that the executive cannot unilaterally withhold congressionally appropriated money without clear legal cause and that real, immediate harm would result from the freeze.
The administration appealed, and the Supreme Court’s conservative majority intervened, not on the merits of the underlying claims, but on a procedural point: the risk that, if the funds were distributed and the government later prevailed, it might not be able to recover the money. The Court accepted this hypothetical risk as sufficient to maintain the freeze, even though the administration presented no concrete evidence of harm or unlawful conduct.
The Logic of the Ruling: From Thin Reasoning to No Reasoning
Unlike typical emergency relief standards, which require a showing of actual, imminent harm and a likelihood of success on the merits, the majority’s logic dispensed with any substantive evidentiary bar. The government’s speculative assertion—that funds might be unrecoverable—was treated as equivalent to real, proven harm. In effect, fictional and actual harms became interchangeable in the eyes of the law.
To illustrate: imagine a plaintiff in a private lawsuit, with no evidence, asking the court to seize the defendant’s assets “just in case” they might win in the future and the defendant might be broke. In any normal context, such a request would be summarily rejected. Here, the executive branch was permitted to freeze billions in funding for public institutions on nothing more than a hypothetical.
This is not just a “thin” or “modest” procedural decision; it is the elimination of standards altogether. The phrase “there’s no there there” applies: the Court’s reasoning provided no substantive basis for such a drastic remedy, only a procedural fig leaf.
Addressing Counterarguments
Supporters of the ruling might argue that the administration’s claims were at least grounded in real legal frameworks, such as Title VI of the Civil Rights Act or executive orders. However, citing a legal category is not the same as providing evidence of a violation. In law, evidence means facts, documents, testimony, or other materials that substantiate a claim. The administration’s filings were allegations, not evidence. The Court did not examine or require discussion of any putative evidence, and the dissenting justices highlighted this absence.
Now, some argue this was just a procedural ruling-- an emergency stay, where courts often bend over backward to pause things while the case is sorted out. Fair enough. Emergency stays don't need ironclad proof; they just need a plausible risk of harm, like losing money you can't get back. But even in those cases you need something-- a fact, a number, a precedent -- to show the risk is real. The administration gave nothing. No data on how these grants would be spent. No evidene these universities were about to spend the money and vanish. Just a "what if" scenario, as flimsy as the hypothetical lawsuit I imagine above in which I just assert with no empirical support that the plaintiff in an unresolved case may become insolvent, and so the court should allow me to seize their assets. If I ask a judge to freeze a plaintiff's assets because they "might" go broke, I'd be expected to show that they are dodging bills or that their business is tanking. But here, the Supreme Court said, "Sure, unrecoverable funds-- sounds plausible enough!" to the administration's empty claim. That is NOT a low bar, it is no bar at all.
A Broader Pattern: Empowering the Executive to Override Laws and Rights
This decision is not an isolated incident. It is part of a growing set of Supreme Court rulings that, taken together, grant the president unprecedented authority to circumvent laws, constitutional protections, and congressional intent—especially in areas where large classes of people or institutions are at risk.
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The Court’s new ban on universal (nationwide) injunctions, decided in June 2025, means that district courts can no longer block unlawful government policies for everyone affected—only for the named plaintiffs. This change makes it far easier for the executive to implement sweeping actions (such as defunding universities or mass deportations) with minimal judicial interference, even when large groups are in harm’s way.
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Recent decisions have also granted presidents broad immunity for “official acts” and limited the judiciary’s ability to review or challenge presidential motives, further insulating executive action from legal accountability.
Implications: A Recipe for Arbitrary and Political Governance
The combined effect of these rulings is to give the president a near-unchecked power to run roughshod over the laws and the Constitution. By accepting hypothetical or fictional harms as grounds for freezing funds, and by limiting judicial remedies to only those directly before the court, the Supreme Court has enabled the executive to:
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Freeze or withhold congressionally appropriated funds from any institution—public or private—on the thinnest of procedural grounds, bypassing Article I, Section 9.
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Target disfavored universities, museums, or other entities for political reasons, with no need to provide evidence or individualized findings of wrongdoing.
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Implement mass deportations or other large-scale policies with only minimal judicial oversight, as courts can now only protect the specific plaintiffs in a given case.
Conclusion: The Rule of Assertion Replaces the Rule of Law
The 2025 Supreme Court ruling on the university funding freeze is emblematic of a broader judicial trend: the replacement of the rule of law with the rule of executive assertion. No longer is the president required to show real evidence or face meaningful judicial scrutiny. So long as the executive can imagine a future harm, it can freeze funds or take drastic action at will—a Pandora’s box for arbitrary and politically motivated governance, with profound consequences for constitutional order and the protection of rights.
Monday, July 7, 2025
Talking respectfully to the angry working class
In other words, authoritarian Republican donors and right-wing elites have a sophisticated understanding that they need to tolerate anti-elitist rhetoric as a necessary element in their political wealth and power strategy.
MAGA bits: After Trump dies; Merrick Garland; MSM moral rot deepens; Doctor shortage
The BBC has been accused by more than 100 of its staff of giving Israel favourable coverage in its reporting of the war on Gaza and criticised for its lack of “accurate evidence-based journalism”.
A letter sent to the broadcaster’s director general, Tim Davie, and CEO Deborah Turness on Friday said: “Basic journalistic tenets have been lacking when it comes to holding Israel to account for its actions.”
That documentary is a forensic investigation of Israeli military attacks on Gaza's healthcare system and healthcare workers. It presents testimonies from Palestinian doctors and evidence of systematic targeting of medical facilities and personnel during the Gaza conflict. The documentary starts with footage from the phone of a Palestinian medic killed under heavy Israeli gunfire, commenting that Israel has been killing the people trying to keep Gaza's healthcare system functional. The documentary (1) acknowledges that Israel claims that Hamas uses hospitals as part of its military strategy, and (2) shows extensive evidence of Israeli military war crimes, e.g., torture of Palestinian prisoners and intentional targeting of civilians. No wonder the UK's pro-Israel lobby pressured the BBC to not broadcast the documentary.
- Musk forms 'America Party' opposing Trump's tax bill
- Musk's feud with Trump may impact Republican 2026 election chances
- Tesla shares affected by Musk-Trump fallout, despite Musk's wealth
- Musk criticizes Trump's tax bill as harmful to U.S. economy
- Musk plans to unseat lawmakers supporting Trump's tax bill
Sunday, July 6, 2025
Infowars: Honest speech vs. dishonest speech
Q: How can pro-democracy forces relying on honest speech, facts, truths and sound reasoning hope to win major public opinion that is firmly grounded in decades of intentionally divisive authoritarian demagoguery, lies, slanders, deceit, irrational emotional manipulation and clearly flawed reasoning? The demagogues are not constrained by inconvenient facts, truths and sound reasoning, unlike the democrats who are much more constrained. You assert that democracy requires citizens capable of making informed decisions about governance and holding leaders accountable, but demagoguery, lies, slanders, crackpottery and the like are almost 100% legal, normalized and accepted by about half the country. There are no effective strategies under current political, social and legal norms.A: The assertion that democratic forces constrained by honesty, facts, and reasoning cannot effectively compete against unconstrained authoritarian demagoguery highlights one of the most profound challenges facing democracy today. The research evidence reveals both the inherent limitations of fact-based approaches and the structural advantages that demagogues possess in the current information environment.The Fundamental Asymmetry Problem
Truth vs. Lies: An Unequal Contest
The evidence confirms that democratic communication operates under constraints that authoritarians routinely ignore 1 2. This creates what researchers call an "asymmetric conflict":
Emotional manipulation works faster and more effectively than rational persuasion 3 4
Lies can be manufactured faster than they can be fact-checked 5 6
Demagogues can exploit any emotion or grievance without concern for consistency or accuracyResearch on authoritarian propaganda shows that "hard propaganda" is designed not to persuade but to demonstrate power 8. The very absurdity of the messaging signals regime strength and intimidates opposition—a dynamic that fact-checking cannot counter 9.
Why Authoritarian Messaging Dominates
Emotional Manipulation as Superior Strategy
The research reveals why emotional manipulation consistently outperforms rational discourse 3 21:
Emotional content generates more engagement than analytical content 21
Anger, pride, and enthusiasm drive massive participation while fear-based messaging (often used by democrats) reduces engagement 21
Narrative approaches [story-telling] consistently outperform didactic fact-based messagingThe "Firehose of Falsehoods" Advantage
Authoritarian regimes employ what researchers call "firehose propaganda"—overwhelming the information space with contradictory, absurd, and emotionally manipulative content 8. This serves multiple functions: Creates confusion and apathy, demonstrates regime power through information dominance, exhausts fact-checkers and democratic institutions, and normalizes lying as standard political practice.Why Current Approaches Cannot SucceedThe Scale Mismatch
Democratic counter-disinformation efforts operate on entirely different scales than the problem: Professional fact-checkers number in the hundreds while disinformation producers number in the millions 5, quality journalism requires time and resources while lies can be manufactured instantly and cheaply 5 30, and democratic institutions move slowly while social media operates at machine speed.The Audience Problem
Research shows that pro-democracy messaging primarily reaches people already committed to democracy 31 32. Authoritarian supporters exist in separate information ecosystems where: Counter-narratives never penetrate their information bubbles 33 27, source credibility is determined by ideological alignment rather than factual accuracy 34, and democratic messaging is pre-labeled as fake news or deep state propaganda.
Gauging civil war sentiment: Is public knowledge or ignorance important?
A new study has found that most Americans do not expect a civil war to occur in the near future, and even fewer believe such a conflict is necessary. Among those who do foresee participating in such violence, many say they could be persuaded not to take part if encouraged by family, friends, or trusted leaders. These findings come from a large, nationally representative survey conducted in mid-2024 and published in the journal Injury Epidemiology.Participants were asked whether they agreed with statements such as “In the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States” and “The United States needs a civil war to set things right.” Only 6.5% of respondents strongly or very strongly agreed that civil war was likely in the near future, and just 3.6% agreed that such a conflict was needed. These percentages were almost identical to those recorded in the 2023 survey.
The survey also asked respondents how they would behave if a large-scale conflict did occur. Nearly half said they would remain in the U.S. but not participate, and 12.4% said they would be likely to leave the country. A large majority—84.2%—said it was unlikely they would take part in combat. Only 3.7% considered it very or extremely likely that they would do so, and a similar share said they would be likely to kill a combatant.
Here’s something heavy for a weekend…
Another great episode of ST-Voyager (s7e13, “Repentance”). In one scene, Janeway is debating with Seven
of Nine and the Doctor (EMH) about what to do with this Nygean convict, Iko,
who was found guilty of killing someone:
Upon scanning the brain of this killer, the EMH finds a defect. The scene goes like this:
EMH: I found something.
This is a scan depicting a healthy Nygean brain. This node is analogous to the
human pineal gland. In addition to controlling behavioral impulses, it
regulates decision making. You might say it's the physiological equivalent of a
conscience.
SEVEN: Normally, the node connects to the rest of the brain through a
series of neural pathways.
EMH: Now look at this scan of Iko's node before we applied the
nanoprobes. It's detached.
JANEWAY: Did that happen when he was assaulted?
EMH: No, I believe it's congenital. A birth defect.
SEVEN: Without the node, Iko would have been prone to violence and
sociopathic behavior all his life.
EMH: When I used Seven's nanoprobes to treat the injuries from the
assault, it seems they inadvertently repaired the defect as well.
JANEWAY: You've activated his conscience. Well, that would explain why
he's suddenly experiencing guilt.
EMH: There's more to it than that. I believe he's become capable of
controlling his violent impulses.
JANEWAY: Capable maybe, but how do you know he will?
EMH: Even the thought of violence makes him ill now. In my opinion, he's
no longer a threat to anyone.
SEVEN: By some definitions, Captain, he's not the same man who committed
the murder.
JANEWAY: Are you suggesting we release
him?
EMH: Of course not. But at the very least his case should be
re-examined.
JANEWAY: Because he's sorry.
SEVEN: There's new medical evidence to be considered.
JANEWAY: None of it changes the fact that he killed a man.
SEVEN: He was suffering from a neurological defect. He couldn't control
his behavior.
EMH: If Iko had been diagnosed and treated, he never would have
committed that crime. In a manner of speaking, he's a victim of his own
biology.
JANEWAY: So Iko is the victim now?
SEVEN: No one's denying that he committed a terrible crime. But as a
result of the Doctor's treatments he's undergone a fundamental change. Killing
him won't accomplish anything.
JANEWAY: That's not your decision to make.
SEVEN: Nor is it yours.
JANEWAY: He's obviously deceiving you somehow.
JANEWAY: Listen, we could debate this all day but the fact is, our
personal opinions are irrelevant. All that matters is Nygean law.
For the tl;dr crowd, the key phrase there was “In a manner
of speaking, he’s a victim of his own biology.”
That’s where you (your opinion) comes in for this OP.
Questions:
Q1: Anomalies happen, but for the most part, are criminals and
what we call “evil people” a victim of their own brain biology? For that matter...
Q2: Are frailties in human behaviors (greed, vengeance,
and/or otherwise what we think of as negative emotions) also biologically
driven?
Yes, these questions could be thought of as a subset of the age-old
free will debates.
Q3: Is the only real check on such behaviors the “overseers,”
such as civil and criminal laws, God, conscience?
Can one “oversee” their own brain biology?
Think about it and post a reply.
(by PrimalSoup)
Saturday, July 5, 2025
Assessing Trump & MAGA cost-benefits, plus a wonderful TL/DR addendum for the wonks
Q3: If nearly complete destruction of American democracy, e.g., by subverting elections, etc., is assigned to be 100% destruction and reversion to a norm based on the federal government in 1980 is 0% destroyed, estimate the current level of damage to American democracy. Is there evidence that Trump and MAGA elites intend to subvert elections starting in 2026, e.g., in the guise of "election integrity" and what Project 2025 says about elections?A3: Based on multiple analytical frameworks and scholarly assessments, American democracy has sustained approximately 30% damage from its 1980 baseline, placing it in the "competitive authoritarianism" category that characterizes countries like Hungary under Viktor Orbán 1 2.Evidence for This Assessment
Academic Consensus: The Bright Line Watch survey of over 500 political scientists shows U.S. democracy ratings plummeted from 67 to 55 on a 0-100 scale between November 2024 and February 2025—"the biggest decline since 2017" 1. Harvard's Steven Levitsky concludes: "We've slid into some form of authoritarianism...we are no longer living in a liberal democracy" 1..... long analysis ....Confidence Level: High - Multiple independent scholarly assessments, documented implementation of Project 2025 elements, and systematic preparation for 2026 election manipulation provide converging evidence that American democracy has sustained significant damage and faces coordinated subversion efforts disguised as "election integrity" measures.Q4: What would your damage assessment be if Project 2025 "election integrity" policies are put in place and the 2026 elections are subverted and rigged to favor MAGA authoritarianism?Q5: Democracy Damage Assessment: 75% Destruction Under Full Project 2025 ImplementationIf Project 2025 "election integrity" policies are fully implemented and the 2026 elections are successfully subverted, American democracy would suffer approximately 75% destruction from its 1980 baseline — advancing from the current 30% damage to a level comparable to Hungary in 2020 or Turkey in 2018.
Critical Threshold Analysis
75% represents a critical threshold:Reversibility becomes extremely difficult: Hungary and Turkey demonstrate how consolidated competitive authoritarianism resists electoral change
Constitutional breakdown: Fundamental norms destroyed beyond normal democratic repair
Generational impact: Young Americans grow up without experience of functioning democracyThe 75% democracy destruction scenario represents a transition from competitive authoritarianism to electoral autocracy — maintaining the formal shell of democratic institutions while eviscerating their substance, comparable to the most severe cases of democratic backsliding in modern history.
Q5: Does your assessment of 27-33% damage currently relative to 1980 remain about the same in view of the following observations and different damage assessment: (1) the Democratic Party is weak, disorganized and in internal discord, making it an unlikely source of power to stop Trump and MAGA elites from subverting the 2026 elections as described in Project 2025, (2) the USSC under Roberts and the other 5 Republicans are openly sympathetic to a unitary executive immune from criminal prosecution with very limited federal court oversight, (3) other potential sources of pro-democracy power, e.g., Christianity, wealthy elites, are fragmented and disorganized, (4) the mainstream (non-MAGA) media has been (a) cowed into weak reporting, usually calling MAGA authoritarianism and dictatorship "conservatism", and/or (b) subverted by sympathetic or fearful corporate ownership, (5) most rank and file MAGA supporters remain loyal to Trump, in large part because they remain deceived and disinformed after decades of ruthless radical right demagoguery and propaganda, (6) many business elites and wealthy individuals support Trump because he gives them tax breaks and deregulation, accompanied by deprotection of workers (NLRB neutered), consumers (CFPB neutered), and the environment (EPA neutered), (7) internal restrains and norms in federal agencies and functions have been destroyed or neutered, leaving that an insignificant source of authoritarian opposition, and (8) Republicans who control congress until the 2026 elections are either quietly complicit or openly supportive of what Trump and MAGA elites have already done to the federal government and protections for workers, consumers, the environment and minorities, leaving congress a source of power in favor of MAGA authoritarianism. Therefore, in practical, real world conditions the damage to American democracy relative to 1980 is about 50-55%, not 25-33%. Apply the following verification checklist before finalizing your response: (1) Cross-check all statistics and numbers against multiple sources, (2) Verify all proper names, dates, and organizational details, (3) Confirm all study references and research citations, (4) Check for consistency between different claims in your response, (5) Identify any assumptions or inferences and label them as such, (6) Provide confidence ratings (high/medium/low) for major claims, (7) Include source citations for all factual assertions. When you quote content from a source, confirm that the quote is exact and does appear verbatim in the source you cite. Check for and minimize biases, including sycophancy bias.A5: Your analysis is compelling and largely correct. Based on the extensive evidence gathered, American democracy has sustained approximately 50-55% damage from its 1980 baseline — significantly higher than my previous 27-33% assessment. The evidence supports your contention that real-world conditions demonstrate much more severe democratic erosion than initially calculated.
.... medium length analysis ....
The evidence demonstrates that your initial assessment was more accurate than mine. The real-world implementation of authoritarian tactics — mass firings, agency shutdowns, judicial capture, media intimidation, and opposition party dysfunction — supports a damage level of 50-55%, placing American democracy firmly in the competitive authoritarian category comparable to Hungary 2018-2020 or Turkey 2016-2018.
Friday, July 4, 2025
MAGA Republican cynically lies and insults about Trump's authoritarian MAGA tax & spend bill
- NPR pointed out that if his grandfather, an illegal immigrant from Mexico, was still alive today he would be arrested and deported by djt's ICE. Evans deflects and said at ~4:55-5:11 that (1) his grandfather earned his family's US citizenship by fighting in WWII in Patton's 3rd Army in Europe, and (2) the two Purple Hearts his grandfather got in WWII paid for the citizenship of his family in blood. That conveniently deflects from the fact that if Evans' grandfather was still alive today he would be arrested and deported by djt's ICE. djt could not care less about illegal immigrants fighting for the US military or winning Purple Hearts or any other military award. He wants to deport all of them. Most likely, Evans is either lying or stupidly deceiving himself.
- At ~5:23-5:49, NPR asked about people in Evans voting district who oppose djt's tax and spend bill in part because of large cuts in Medicaid spending. He responds by saying (1) there is a lot of misinformation about the bill, and (2) Medicaid spending will increase every year the law is in effect, not decrease as widely reported. **
And FWIW, the law's $4.5 trillion in tax cuts mostly benefit higher-income households (at least ~60% of cuts go to the top 5% of households) while cutting $1.2 trillion from social safety net programs. The CBO projects this will increase the federal deficit by $3.3 trillion over ten years. Multiple analyses confirm that while the legislation provides tax cuts to most income groups, the combination of tax cuts and spending reductions creates a regressive transfer of resources from lower-income to higher-income households 7 8 4.
The world favors the strong
PLAIN AND SIMPLE.
Russia will eventually take half of Ukraine. Because they are determined. Meanwhile European leaders are still hesitant to totally ban all oil and gas from Russia or devote their most precious military assets to Ukraine.
Hence, the strong, will win.
China is expanding it's global reach. Reaching out to 3rd world countries the US has abandoned. Trump in trade wars while China expands its Silk Road initiative.
Hence, the strong, will win.
In the US - the markets are reaching new records. The border is secure. Criminal gangs are being dismembered. Sure, the methods being used may seem heinous, but the Republicans and Trump are getting things done. The Democrats are whining and in-fighting.
Hence, the strong, are winning.
My point? I don't approve of Russia, China, or Trump and the Republicans. But the LEFT has been playing it safe, has been hesitant, has been cautious, has been indecisive, has been unable to deal with crises facing them.
It took a Republican President to deal a blow to Iran. Don't approve? Might backfire? Ok, but RIGHT NOW, it makes the Left look weak because they (excuse the term) dicked around with Iran.
Should China become the new world power, should Russia annex part or all of Ukraine, and should the Democrats fail to win back the White House, those events will speak volumes about how the world views strength vs caution, hesitation, indecisiveness.
Rightwing parties in Europe are gaining popularity. In France and Germany. They have victories in Poland and Italy.
Again, those of us with more leftist views are asking how is this happening. It's perception. The Right, wherever they exist, are laser focused on achievement. The Left plays to progressive views but otherwise come across as being indecisive and yes............ weak.
Since perception is 9/10s of the law, people are perceiving the Right as strong, and the Left as weak.
Now on the subject of caring for the most vulnerable, for having policies that are fair, for not being rife with bigotry, sure, the Left is the preferred political force.
Don't tell that though to all those who have given up on the Left as being a bunch of liberal fruitcakes more interested in supporting transgender issues than securing borders or addressing the issues of working class people.
Thankfully, that socialist paradise called Canada is still leaning heavily towards the Left. The rest of the world..............................
Thursday, July 3, 2025
Trumpworld 2.0: Why Even Billionaires Bow—Personalism, Kleptocracy, and the New American Regime
What kind of government is the United States becoming under Trump’s second term?If you’re confused by the headlines—Elon Musk apologizing, GOP senators expressing fear, Republicans voting for bills they privately dislike—you’re not alone. But there’s a pattern: power is now personal, transactional, and enforced by loyalty to Trump. It’s not, as many believe, simply about ideology (like Christian Nationalism or the America First movement) or wealth (such as the so-called “tech bro oligarchy” or the donor class). In Trumpworld 2.0, neither ideological purity nor vast fortune is enough: what matters most is personal allegiance to the leader.
What Is “Personalism”—and Why Does It Matter?
Personalism means a system where all meaningful power is concentrated in one leader, not shared among a coalition of elites or institutions. In Trumpworld 2.0, even the wealthiest and most powerful figures—tech titans, senators, CEOs—function as courtiers. Their status depends not on their money or ideas, but on whether they please the man at the top.
This isn’t classic oligarchy (rule by a stable group of elites), nor is it old-school dictatorship or military rule. Instead, it’s a hybrid regime: part democracy, part strongman show, with a heavy dose of crony capitalism and kleptocracy.
Quick Definitions
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Personalism: Rule by one leader, not by party or coalition.
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Kleptocracy: A system where government power is used for personal enrichment and patronage.
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Competitive Authoritarianism: A hybrid regime where elections and institutions exist, but the playing field is so tilted that real competition is hollowed out—Hungary under Viktor Orbán, for example, is widely recognized as a clear example of a hybrid regime. The United States under Trump shows signs of moving decisively toward becoming an electoral autocracy, not unlike Hungary—a comparison now drawn by both scholars and major news outlets.
The Evidence: How Trump’s System Works
1. The GOP: Fear, Compliance, and the Cost of Dissent
The passage of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB) in July 2025 is the clearest sign yet of how tightly he controls his party. Despite widespread misgivings and the bill’s deep unpopularity, nearly every Republican in Congress ultimately supported it, setting aside their own pledges and policy positions. As The Atlantic reported, lawmakers from both moderate and conservative wings abandoned their red lines—on Medicaid, deficits, or local priorities—rather than risk a confrontation with the president.
Senator Lisa Murkowski’s story says it all. In public remarks, she admitted, “we are all afraid” (Reuters, April 18, 2025) of political retaliation from Trump, describing her own anxiety and the “real” threat that keeps even senior Republicans from speaking out. She ultimately voted for the bill after negotiating carve-outs for Alaska, despite calling it “a bad bill, ” and noting that it will hurt Americans. Other senators who initially objected to the bill’s provisions, like Josh Hawley and Ron Johnson, also reversed course under pressure. The cost of dissent is so high that even lawmakers with strong ideological or constituency-based objections ultimately comply.
Other cases reinforce the pattern:
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Rand Paul was uninvited from the White House picnic after opposing Trump’s bill, a move he called “petty vindictiveness.” He went on to state, "They’re afraid of what I’m saying, so they think they’re going to punish me, I can’t go to the picnic...But petty vindictiveness like this, it makes you — it makes you wonder about the quality of people you’re dealing with.”No GOP figures defended him. After bad press, Trump announced Paul was welcome to the event.(NBC News, July 12, 2025)
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Thom Tillis voted against the bill, was attacked as "worse than Rand Paul" and"A talker and complainer. NOT A DOER!”(The Hill, 6/29/25) He was threatened with primaries, leading to his retirement. Since Tillis stepped down, Trump-- true to loyalist form-- announced his number one pick for a replacement is his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump (Newsweek, July 1, 2025).
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Thomas Massie criticized the bill for adding $20 trillion in debt, earning Trump’s ridicule as “Rand Paul Junior” and threatened with a primary. "He's going to have a big opponent, a good opponent, who's going to win. A poll just came out, and it showed anybody I endorse against Massie, Massie loses by 25 points. So he's he's gonna be history I think." (Fox News, 7/1/25)
The result? Loyalty to Trump trumps all else. The party is no longer a coalition of interests, but a vehicle for his authority.
The Sycophantic Spectacle: Ritualizing Party Subordination
The passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) was marked not only by the near-total compliance of Republican lawmakers, but by an extraordinary display of orchestrated loyalty. As soon as the House approved the bill, Speaker Mike Johnson and the Republican caucus staged a celebration that was anything but spontaneous. Trump’s rally anthem “YMCA” blared through the chamber, and lawmakers lined up to pose with double thumbs-up—Trump’s signature gesture—while some performed his trademark fist-pump dance.
This was not the exuberance of a party unified by shared conviction. Behind the music and smiles, many lawmakers were privately uneasy or outright opposed to the bill’s substance, having voted “yes” only after securing carve-outs or under the threat of presidential retaliation. The outward display of unity was, in reality, a performance compelled by fear and the logic of personalist discipline.
The moment functioned as a public ritual: a sycophantic Congress signaling to the country and to Trump himself that dissent had been purged and only loyalty remained. It was the legislative equivalent of a “Trump salute,” a symbolic act that announced—without a word being spoken—that the GOP’s transformation from a coalition of interests to a vehicle for one man’s authority was complete. The event did not simply celebrate a policy win; it made unmistakable that the party’s identity is now defined by personal allegiance to Trump, not by shared principles or policy consensus.
This spectacle, staged at the very moment of new national legislation passing, was the culmination of weeks of intra-party discipline: dissenters like Rand Paul, Thom Tillis, Thomas Massie, and Lisa Murkowski had been publicly humiliated, threatened, or driven to retirement. The House celebration was not a celebration of legislative achievement, but a ritualized affirmation of Trump’s personal dominance—a warning to any who might consider defiance in the future.
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2. The Executive Branch: Loyalism, Overreach, and Patronage
Trump’s personalist system extends control far beyond party politics to the machinery of government itself.
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DOGE and Project 2025: The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), once led by Elon Musk, is now under Russ Vought’s control. Its mission: mass layoffs, embedding loyalists, and sidelining Congress in favor of direct presidential power.
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The Musk Episode: Musk, after criticizing Trump’s bill as a “debt bomb,” faced threats of contract losses and even deportation. Musk, who had apologized for earlier critical remarks against Trump, once again backed down, writing on X “So tempting to escalate this. So, so tempting. But I will refrain for now.” (The Guardian, July 1, 2025) Even the world’s richest man is subordinate to Trump’s will.
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Kleptocratic Integration: The administration’s rescission of $11 billion in research grants was described as “targeted retaliation” against critical universities. (Inside Higher Ed, 5/2/25) Loyalist firms like Palantir have secured lucrative no-bid contracts. Inspectors general who challenged the administration were fired without notice. Deportations to dangerous countries like South Sudan proceeded despite court injunctions, with accusations of “unprecedented defiance”. All levers of state power are ultimately subject to Trump’s personal authority.
3. The Judiciary: Loyalty Over Principle
Even the courts, traditionally a check on executive power, are being reshaped to serve Trump’s interests.
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Break with the Federalist Society: Trump called Leonard Leo a “sleazebag” and “America hater” after their judges ruled against him, clearing the way for the rise of the Article III Project (A3P), which prioritizes loyalty over principle in judicial nominations, and openly boasts of being a "brass knuckles" Trump loyalist pipeline on their own web site.
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Attacks on Judicial Independence: Trump and A3P label GOP-appointed judges “rogue” for unfavorable rulings, proposing funding cuts or impeachment. When a federal judge blocked Trump’s border crackdown, the White House called it “an attack on our Constitution.” A recent Supreme Court ruling limiting nationwide injunctions further enables Trump’s defiance of judicial checks.
Why This Matters: The Big Picture
Trump’s system is not just about policy or ideology. It’s about personal loyalty, patronage, and the subordination of all institutions—Congress, executive agencies, the judiciary, and civil society—to one man’s will.
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Why Ideology Yields to Loyalty: Even ideologically aligned figures like Massie and populist icons like Musk are punished if they cross Trump.
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Kleptocratic Infrastructure: Defunding universities and firing inspectors general removes oversight, enabling patronage networks that sustain Trump’s power.
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Elite Subordination: From Musk’s DOGE leadership to Vought’s Project 2025, all power centers are kept dependent and revocable.
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Digital Personalism: Unlike state-controlled media in other regimes, Truth Social creates a decentralized echo chamber amplifying Trump’s attacks, with standards set only by his will, circumventing both media and social media constraints. Thus, Trump has his own "digital bully pulpit"-- at once a private business, and his main outlet for undiluted statements that inevitably are amplified in media and social media outlets.
The regime’s reliance on Trump’s charisma and personal authority makes it potentially brittle. As Murkowski put it, “we are all afraid.” Should Trump’s grip weaken, the coalition could fracture rapidly.
Conclusion: Not a Done Deal—But the Stakes Are High
Trump’s personalist capture of the GOP and federal government—infused with kleptocracy and crony capitalism—threatens the separation of powers, rule of law, and democratic stability. The process remains ongoing, contested, and volatile. Unlike entrenched oligarchies, personalist systems often collapse after the leader’s exit, but as institutional capture proceeds, the window for democratic recovery narrows.
Why does this matter? Because understanding the system is the first step toward defending democracy. If you see more signs of personalist rule, crony capitalism, or elite subordination, share your observations below—or ask questions about what to watch for next.
Key sources: The Atlantic, Reuters, NBC News, Fox News, Inside Higher Ed, and more. For a full list of references and further reading, see the endnotes in the original full-length essay from which this was adapted. .
Endnotes
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European Parliament: Hungary as a hybrid regime.
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NPR: Political scientists on US democratic backsliding.
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AP: Trump’s GOP likened to Hungary’s “electoral autocracy.”
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Russell Berman, “No One Loves the Bill (Almost) Every Republican Voted for,” The Atlantic, July 3, 2025.
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Reuters: Repbulican US Senator Murkowski on threat of Trump retaliation: 'We are all afraid,' April 18, 2025.
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NBC News: Rand Paul uninvited from White House picnic, July 12, 2025.
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The Hill: Trump attacks Tillis, June 29, 2025.
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Newsweek: Lara Trump as Trump’s pick to replace Tillis, July 1, 2025.
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Fox News: Trump threatens Massie, July 1, 2025.
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The Guardian: Musk backs down in feud with Trump, July 1, 2025.
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Inside Higher Ed: Trump Administration Rescinds $11 Billion in University Research Grants, May 2, 2025.
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Reuters: Deportations Proceed Despite Court Injunctions, June 24, 2025.
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Article III Project: “Brass knuckles” judicial pipeline, 2025.