Etiquette



DP Etiquette

First rule: Don't be a jackass.

Other rules: Do not attack or insult people you disagree with. Engage with facts, logic and beliefs. Out of respect for others, please provide some sources for the facts and truths you rely on if you are asked for that. If emotion is getting out of hand, get it back in hand. To limit dehumanizing people, don't call people or whole groups of people disrespectful names, e.g., stupid, dumb or liar. Insulting people is counterproductive to rational discussion. Insult makes people angry and defensive. All points of view are welcome, right, center, left and elsewhere. Just disagree, but don't be belligerent or reject inconvenient facts, truths or defensible reasoning.

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

Legalized campaign bribery


The AP and other sources are reporting that corrupt MAGA thug, chronic liar and criminal Elon Musk says he is going to cut back on political spending, presumably campaign and other "contributions."

There are at least two apparent issues. One is that djt has promised Musk huge payoffs and no more cash is needed. That is possible. The DoJ has already stopped investigations into Musk criminality. The payoff may already be paid.

The other is, thanks to our corrupt, authoritarian USSC, the dense opacity that now shields and defends bribery of both state and federal politicians.

I asked Pxy, Deep Research mode:
Q: Is there any reliable way to verify if Musk actually reduces his political spending? I thought that unlimited funds can now be donated in anonymity.

A: Verifying this claim faces considerable challenges due to the complex landscape of campaign finance disclosure rules. While some donations remain transparent through mandatory reporting, significant pathways exist for anonymous political giving that could make it difficult impossible to fully track whether the world's wealthiest person or anyone else actually decreases his their political spending. (corrections added for accuracy)

Musk's political giving has seen a dramatic evolution. According to OpenSecrets data, prior to 2024, he had contributed over $1 million to political causes since 2002, splitting donations relatively evenly between Democrats and Republicans 18. However, in 2024, he redirected his financial influence dramatically toward Republican candidates, with his contributions exceeding $288 million according to a Washington Post analysis 2. This included funding America PAC, which raised $263 million to support Trump through voter outreach operations in key swing states 2.

.... long analysis ....

Shell Companies and Multiple Entities

Donations can be further obscured through shell companies or by passing through multiple entities. The Brennan Center notes that contributions to super PACs from shell companies and nonprofits that don't disclose their funding sources reached $1.3 billion during the 2024 election cycle—more than the previous two election cycles combined 1 2. 

Conclusion
While Musk's directly disclosed donations can be monitored through FEC filings and services like OpenSecrets, there's no comprehensive way to verify his total political spending if he utilizes donation channels that don't require disclosure. The current campaign finance system allows unlimited funds to flow through dark money channels, making complete verification of his pledge practically impossible.
I think that Musk is an insulting, cynical liar. He will donate as much in secret as he believes will get an acceptable ROI. This is about business and profit, nothing else. The American federal government and state governments are now open to full-blown MAGA-style kleptocracy. 

Learning how to use AI to get better analysis

This comment in a recent post thread sent me down a huge rabbit hole this morning. That comment linked to two ChatGPT search queries and the responses, which are at this link. The two queries were:
  • Is the USA heading toward authoritarianism?
  • Will the USA remain a healthy and functional democracy?
To me, the ChatGPT responses looked to be superficial and vague enough to support two mostly opposition beliefs. My belief is that our political situation is catastrophically bad and dangerous. The other belief is that, more or less, yeah it is bad, but not nearly as bad as you make it out to be.

To see if Pxy, running the R1 1776 AI platform would gave the same response, I asked for a similar analysis, but in my own complicated way, telling Pxy to take into account US supreme court decisions since Citizens United, the authoritarian and kleptocratic goals in Project 2025, the actions and tactics of Trump and MAGA elites in power and congress since 2017, including their heavy reliance on demagoguery, authoritarian propaganda, lies, slanders and crackpot reasoning, e.g., falsely calling Trump's 1/6 coup attempt a day of love and the 2020 election stolen.

The response I got was deeper and more nuanced, but it tended to see a more acute threat from djt and MAGA politics and tactics than ChatGPT reported. That got me to wonder why there were what appeared to me to be significant differences. What I found was that according to Pxy, short questions to AI tend to give more vague responses, explained in detail in this comment by me. Long story in this comment by me made short is this: At least for complex topics like politics, posing complex, focused questions with specified search topics to AI, will usually give a person more complete and more nuanced responses with less AI bias and hallucination.  

Then, I started a new query in Pxy's Pro-Search mode, instead of it's more thorough Deep Research mode using the exact, short questions that were given to ChatGPT. Again, the answers were closer to my belief in the seriousness of the MAGA authoritarian threat than those given by ChatGPT.

So, not all AI are alike. One has to learn how to use them. At least for politics, that means one has to learn how to ask focused, usually complicated questions to elicit nuanced and heavily fact-driven responses. 
______________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________

For the wonks
Just for giggles, here's a direct comparison of ChatGPT with Pxy running R1 1776 in Pro-search mode. Both AIs got the exact same question. 

Q: Will the USA remain a healthy and functional democracy?

ChatGPT: Whether the United States will remain a healthy and functional democracy is ultimately uncertain—but it can, if key institutions hold and citizens actively support democratic norms. Here's a grounded look at the factors involved:

Reasons for Optimism

  1. Strong Institutional Foundations

    • The Constitution, independent judiciary, separation of powers, and federalism provide structural guardrails against authoritarian drift.

    • Civil society organizations and investigative journalism remain robust.

  2. Active Citizen Engagement

    • Voter turnout has risen in recent major elections.

    • Grassroots movements on all sides of the spectrum show that many Americans care deeply about governance, rights, and representation.

  3. Checks and Balances Still Functioning

    • Courts have overturned executive actions and upheld election integrity.

    • Peaceful transfers of power have occurred despite extreme tension (e.g., post-2020 election).


⚠️ Reasons for Concern

  1. Democratic Backsliding

    • Some states are enacting laws that restrict voting or concentrate political power.

    • Norms like respecting election results or the peaceful rhetoric of dissent are being challenged.

  2. Hyper-Partisan Polarization

    • Increasing tribalism threatens compromise and governance.

    • Large swaths of the population now view political opponents as existential threats, not just ideological rivals.

  3. Disinformation and Distrust

    • Social media spreads falsehoods rapidly.

    • Trust in government, media, and even basic facts is eroding, which weakens the democratic process.

  4. Violence and Extremism

    • The January 6th insurrection marked a historic breach of democratic norms.

    • Politically motivated violence, or tolerance of it, could destabilize democratic legitimacy.


🧭 What Will Make the Difference?

  • Civic education: Teaching history, critical thinking, and the value of democratic institutions.

  • Leadership: Leaders across parties respecting democratic norms and calling out extremism.

  • Electoral integrity: Fair, transparent, accessible elections.

  • Public will: If citizens continue to vote, protest peacefully, engage in politics, and uphold pluralism, democracy can endure.


Final Thought

The U.S. is at a crossroads. Its future as a healthy democracy is not guaranteed—but it's not doomed either. Democracy is not self-executing; it depends on the actions of its people. If Americans actively defend its principles, it can not only survive but become stronger.


^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Pxy: The United States faces significant challenges to its democratic stability, with expert analyses and recent developments pointing to both accelerating erosion and potential resilience. While democratic institutions have historically shown adaptability, current trends—particularly efforts to centralize power and undermine electoral integrity—raise serious concerns about the future of American democracy.

Threats to Democratic Health

1. Institutional Erosion

  • Executive Overreach: The Trump administration has expanded presidential authority through aggressive use of executive orders (e.g., dismantling civil service protections) and proposed policies like Project 2025, which seeks to replace nonpartisan federal workers with loyalists and weaponize the Department of Justice16.

  • Judicial and Legislative Weakening: Attacks on judicial independence (e.g., threats to defy court rulings) and congressional gridlock have weakened checks on executive power47.

2. Electoral Integrity Risks

  • Voter Suppression and Gerrymandering: State-level laws restricting ballot access and extreme partisan redistricting have skewed representation, with 12 states scoring poorly on democratic metrics like fair election administration7.

  • Rejection of Election Results: The persistence of election denialism and efforts to politicize election oversight (e.g., "Stop the Steal" rhetoric) threaten peaceful power transitions76.

3. Global Authoritarian Parallels
Scholars compare U.S. trends to autocratization in Hungary and Turkey, where leaders eroded democracy through legalistic maneuvers rather than overt coups16. Project 2025’s blueprint mirrors these strategies, advocating media control and centralized governance6.


Signs of Resilience

1. Public Awareness

  • 73% of Americans recognize a serious threat to democracy, though partisan divides persist (86% of Democrats vs. 61% of Republicans)3.

  • Grassroots movements and legal challenges have countered voter suppression and executive overreach14.

2. Institutional Guardrails

  • Courts have occasionally blocked extreme policies (e.g., rulings against unilateral executive actions)4.

  • Civil society groups and media remain vocal watchdogs, though under increased pressure16.

3. Expert Warnings as Catalysts
Initiatives like the Democracy Playbook 2025 outline actionable steps to reinforce transparency, rule of law, and civic engagement, emphasizing multi-stakeholder coalitions41.


Projected Trajectory

  • Pessimistic Scenario: If Project 2025 is fully implemented, scholars warn the U.S. could resemble an "electoral autocracy" by 2026, retaining democratic facades while concentrating power26. The Heritage Foundation’s call for a "second American Revolution" underscores this risk6.

  • Optimistic Scenario: Institutional inertia and public pushback could slow democratic decline. For example, bipartisan state-level reforms in some regions have expanded voter access7.


Conclusion

The U.S. democracy is at a critical juncture. While autocratic strategies are advancing rapidly, the system’s historical resilience and active defense efforts provide countervailing forces. The nation’s democratic future likely hinges on whether institutional safeguards and civic engagement can outpace centralized power grabs and norm erosion. Without sustained resistance to initiatives like Project 2025, the risk of transitioning to a competitive authoritarian system remains high167.