Yesterday's post was about comparing our frightening current post-Charlie Kirk murder political situation to the 1950s Red Scare and McCarthyism with the 1933 Reichstag Fire incident that helped put Hitler in power. Pxy's historical analysis focused on circumstances and tactics and concluded that the Red Scare was the better analogy to explain and understand the current situation.
But after being reminded of the actors' state of mind, Pxy reversed itself and said that Reichstag Fire was the better analogy because it went to the actors' state of mind. State of mind comes directly from cognitive biology and social behavior, not local circumstances. State of mind is the horse, local circumstances are the cart. AI analyses like this focus on local circumstances and thus give less accurate answers. In my experience and opinion, AI like Pxy has not been taught to elevate state of mind to high importance when analyzing politic and history. That is a major weakness in AI.
Here's how it played out with Pxy this morning when this issue came up from a comment yesterday (link to the full Pxy Q&A thread):
Q5: Analyze and comment on this Reichstag Fire vs Red Scare analogy (commentary): "IMHO, Reichstag fire is the clearly better analogy. In my opinion, the authoritarian's state of mind is far more important than local circumstances and tactics. It's mindset, intent, motives and morals that mostly drives authoritarian aggression. Local circumstances are the gatekeepers." Stay in analytic response mode.
A5:.... moderate analysis ....
Analytical Conclusion
The Reichstag fire analogy appears more apt for understanding authoritarian psychology and intent, while the Red Scare analogy better captures operational methodology and tactical constraints. The mindset-primacy argument has strong empirical support from political psychology research showing consistent authoritarian cognitive patterns across historical contexts.
However, the "local circumstances as gatekeepers" qualifier proves crucial—authoritarian intent must work through available institutional channels, which determines tactical expression even when psychological drivers remain constant. The most accurate analytical framework recognizes that mindset provides the compass while circumstances provide the map: Authoritarian psychology determines the destination (elimination of opposition, social conformity, unchallenged authority) while institutional realities determine the route taken to reach it.
In the current context, this suggests we are witnessing Nazi-level authoritarian intent constrained to McCarthyist tactical implementation—a potentially more dangerous combination than either historical precedent alone, as it combines psychological extremism with methodological sophistication.
Q6: So, is Red Scare or Reichstag the better analogy?
A6: Based on the comprehensive analysis, the Reichstag fire is the better analogy when evaluated through the framework that "the authoritarian's state of mind is far more important than local circumstances and tactics."
.... moderate analysis ....
Analytical Verdict
The Reichstag fire analogy better captures the essential nature of the current authoritarian moment because it accurately identifies the psychological drivers, stated intentions, and ultimate trajectory of the movement. The Red Scare elements represent implementation constraints rather than fundamental orientation.
This conclusion aligns with the principle that "mindset, intent, motives and morals" drive authoritarian behavior while "local circumstances are the gatekeepers."
Q7: So, is state of mind a more informative and useful focus than local circumstance for analyzing similar historical events?
A7:.... long analysis ....
Conclusion: State of Mind as More Informative Framework
For analyzing similar historical events, state of mind appears more informative and useful for several analytical reasons:
Explanatory consistency: Psychological orientation explains why similar events trigger similar responses across vastly different historical contexts. Local circumstances vary dramatically, but authoritarian psychological patterns remain remarkably consistent.
Predictive power: Understanding authoritarian mindset allows analysts to predict likely responses to future events regardless of specific institutional variations. Circumstances change constantly, but psychological drives provide stable analytical anchors.
Causal depth: State of mind analysis addresses the fundamental question of why authoritarians interpret events as opportunities for power consolidation. Circumstantial analysis describes what tactics are available but doesn't explain why authoritarians consistently choose to exploit tragic events for political advantage.
Historical insight: Focusing on psychological orientation reveals the underlying continuity that connects different authoritarian moments across time and space. This provides deeper insight into the nature of authoritarianism as a recurring historical phenomenon rather than treating each instance as unique.
However, the most sophisticated historical analysis employs both frameworks strategically: state of mind for understanding motivational consistency and predicting behavioral patterns, while local circumstances for understanding tactical variation and implementation success. This dual approach provides both explanatory depth and predictive utility for analyzing similar historical events.
And that is why pragmatic rationalism, my anti-biasing, anti-ideology meta-ideology, is heavily grounded in state of mind considerations, i.e., cognitive biology and social behavior. Local details are usually much less important than what is on the actors' minds. Circumstances dictate what a political actor can do and maybe get away with, but state of mind dictates whether the actor will even try to get away with it in the first place.
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