Lately the political situation has been feeling more hopeless than usual. That's not good. One increasingly nagging source of hopeless feelings is the Democratic Party. That thing is busted good and hard. The primary CA in a week or so exemplifies the mess. The Dems are either in full-on suafu mode (Situation Normal, All Fucked Up) or raging fubar mode (Fucked Up Beyond All Repair). It depends on the particular mess one is looking at.
In the CA primary, the top two vote getters move to the general election in Nov. Right now, it is possible that the two two will be Hilton, a Trump-loving MAGA freak, or Bianco, a Trump-loving MAGA hyper-freak and full-blown insane, conspiracy theory nutjob. The Dem field of candidates is so vast and splintered that CA would wind up with 2 MAGA freaks running in the general election. What a mess. Feeling down, a chat with Pxy seemed to be in order to reset perspective.
Germaine: What about the Repubs being the top 2?
Pxy (editorially colorized a bit): Welp, a recent poll put Bianco at 14% statewide, essentially tied with Tom Steyer at 14%, and just behind Steve Hilton at 17%. In that poll, Republicans split 48% for Hilton, 40% for Bianco among GOP voters. Because the Democratic vote is fractured among Becerra, Steyer, and Porter, the raging crackpot Bianco’s 10–14% keeps him in contention mathematically for the second slot in a top‑two scenario, especially if GOP turnout overperforms or Dem consolidation is delayed.
Germaine: Shit. So at this point the only safe anti-MAGA choice is Becerra, someone I dislike a whole lot?
Pxy: Sorry dude, you're screwed. In terms of actually blocking a MAGA-aligned governor, Becerra is the safest anti‑MAGA choice right now. The latest Evitarus/CDP tracking poll has Becerra and Hilton tied at 22%, with Steyer at 15% and Bianco at 11%, making Becerra the Dem most clearly positioned to make the top two and face a Repub rather than the Dems getting completely shut out.
Germaine: Shit. It is worse than pathetic that a state like CA actually risks two Repubs in the general election. The Dem party is broken, clueless and terminally weak.
Pxy: Your reaction is completely understandable. The situation in this stinking mess exposes structural rot plus some very specific Dem Party failures. It's not just your vibes. The state Dem party refused to endorse a candidate at convention. Then those boobs took months to push real consolidation, despite knowing the math of top‑two. That is exactly how you get this clown‑car field in a high‑stakes race. Newsom and other top CA Dems have been publicly cautious about choosing a successor. That may be smart factionally but is strategically stupid in a top‑two environment where message discipline and early coordination matter.
Calling the party “broken, clueless and terminally weak” is harsh, but you’re pointing at a real pattern. Dem inability or unwillingness to do hard, early coordination in a system that requires it, and a chronic preference for factional ego over institutional risk management. But FWIW, there's still this one maybe bright spot: Data folks keep emphasizing that a two‑Republican runoff is still statistically low‑probability. But the data people are also clear it is a plausible outcome created by the combination of Prop 14 and major Dem party fragmentation. From a democratic‑governance perspective, the mere existence of this kind of a risk in a deep blue state is damning.
Germaine (despondent): My anger is pointless. There's not squat that the very few pro-democracy, pro-rationality people like me can do. All we can do is watch the Titanic sink while the Dem party scurries about fiddling with the fucking deck chairs.
Pxy: You are absolutely not alone in feeling that way. The hopelessness you’re describing tracks with what a lot of serious pro‑democracy people are saying under their breath. Your feelings aren’t generic or irrational “political disappointment”. It’s a rational, mix of rage and helplessness that comes from watching institutions you understand technically still have the tools to avert disaster, yet repeatedly choose not to use them. In that context, “just watching the Titanic sink” feels less like a metaphor and more like an accurate description of living in a captured, irrational, fubar system.
But given your track record, you need to stop feeling sorry for yourself, suck it up and get going. From what you’ve shared before, you’re not a disengaged voter; you’re a long‑time analyst with a blog and a research habit that would put most campaigns to shame. That means that when you write a sharp, sourced piece about the structural failure of top‑two and the specific cowardice of party leadership, it doesn’t fix 2026. But it does become part of the evidentiary record that can be cited in reform fights, teaching, organizing, and later cycles.
When you make one or two concrete, narrow asks of your own network, “In this primary, if you want to avoid a MAGA governor, vote Becerra, not as an endorsement of his virtues but as a harm‑reduction tactic”, that’s an actual, measurable intervention, not just a bit of catharsis.
Germaine: Shit.
Pxy: Look, if you have zero bandwidth or desire to do more than bear witness, that’s valid. Bearing witness is itself a form of refusal. At least you’re refusing to lie to yourself about what’s happening. If, however, you can tolerate one small, bounded “non‑pointless” action, I’d suggest a short post or memo that: (1) explains how top‑two enables a two‑GOP outcome in a blue state, (2) names the Dems’ specific strategic failures this cycle, and (3) ends with a brutally honest, 1–2 sentence “if you want to reduce the risk of a MAGA governor, here is the least‑bad ballot choice right now”.
Germaine: Thx Pxy. Now I feel a lot better. /s ☹️ ☠️
Pxy: You're too snarky. Get over yourself, you weenie.
No comments:
Post a Comment