A poll that might be meaningful

Context

Polls are sometime misleading. The farther away the election, the less predictive the poll. Polls can miss because of sampling error, nonresponses, weighting choices, or wording effects. It’s usually best to treat a single poll as a snapshot, not rock solid truth. Despite weaknesses, polls are usually only practical way to for the public get a feel for public sentiment. Poll data is sometimes reasonably accurate. Some people believe that their personal experiences and knowledge accurately reflect majority public sentiment. Nearly all of those people are wrong too often to be taken seriously because personal opinions are not reliable substitutes for systematic polling.

The CNN poll

A recent CNN poll, Americans doubt Trump is paying enough attention to the country’s most pressing issues, released data that feels reasonably accurate and unusually important. Several data points seem to reflect a new, growing understanding of Trump. They are (1) Trump’s public approval is 34%, (2) 73% say he is out of touch with ordinary Americans, (3) 66% say he he does not put the country’s good above personal gain, and (4) 57% say he lacks the stamina and sharpness to serve effectively. Collectively, those data points suggest that a significant portion of the American people have MAGA policy fatigue coupled with an apparently major public rejection of his character, self-dealing (corruption), and fitness to govern. Apparently, Trump’s incompetence and corruption are finally sinking in with a lot of people.

Source

For people who have been arguing Trump’s extraordinary self-centered corruption and incompetence for years, this looks like a little bit of long-overdue vindication. But is it also frustrating that it has taken so damned long for this partial public awareness of what has been and should have been obvious at least since 2017. Will this public understanding make any difference in terms of defense of democracy, the rule of law and civil liberties against Trump and his corrupt authoritarian MAGA onslaught? There is no way to know. This may already be too little, and too late.

Q: Is it reasonable to assert that (1) even with this poll’s mild wording, most Americans now see Trump as venal, self-interested, and unfit, and (2) CNN’s data analysis treats this as evidence that “late-stage Trumpism” is losing its grip because public skepticism is no longer limited to one scandal or one issue, but instead it extends to Trump’s core persona and abuse of power?

Info sources:

Key Points to Remember About Polling in the Run-up to Election Day — Pre-election polls can be helpful in thinking about what to expect on Election Day, but they are not predictions of the election outcomes.

Election polls are 95% confident but only 60% accurate — we have found that the actual vote total for a given candidate fell within the 95% confidence interval for just 60% of the polls. This degree of accuracy was reached only when the polls were conducted in the week before an election; accuracy was worse for polls conducted earlier. ….. when laypeople read about poll results, they tend to overestimate the poll’s accuracy

We’ve Officially Entered the Twilight of Late-Stage Trumpism — It’s all there in a new CNN poll, and it’s heartening to see: Large majorities are sick of Donald Trump’s vanity, venality, and megalomania.

Trump Holds the American People in Total Contempt — To say that President Trump is corrupt is to somehow understate the size, scope and magnitude of his corruption. ….. Trump’s corruption, which is so vast as to be a new phenomenon in American politics. The president and his family have leveraged his office to the tune of nearly $4 billion.

Source: Data as of Jan. 20, 2026

The Frustration Files: Trying to explain the authoritarian threat to people who see threat

Source

Poll data indicates that most Americans believe there is serious threat to American democracy. Despite that understanding, most still really do not get it. Most still believe that their positions and protections are safe. They cannot see the major losses to their own wealth, power and protections that Trump, MAGA elites and allied demagogues are quietly, constantly inflicting on Americans and the public interest.

Simply put, MAGA politics and policy doesn’t just steal money. It takes money and power by deceit, coercion and whatever other means will work. It uses stolen money to stay in power, and it uses that added power to steal more. MAGA is engaged in a vicious cycle of corruption and tyranny.

On the propaganda front, MAGA politic and policy is all about pretending to be for the average person, while being for the elites at the expense of average people. Nearly all those Trump and GOP voters really, sincerely believed they were voting for their own interests and defense of democracy and the rule of law. By now it is clear they were horribly wrong because they were badly deceived.

The hard thing to explain here is that MAGA's authoritarian kleptocracy is usually incremental and bureaucratic. It is usually not flashy and cinematic. It usually works by exploiting existing institutions such as courts, banks, tax agencies, the media, finance, and election rules. Average people experience fragments of the damage spread out over time. There is no single obvious catastrophic takeover in a few days. That slow burn through the core of democracy and rule of law makes it easy for morally rotted, corrupted politicians or media figures to say “nothing major has happened”. They say that while knowing full well that democracy and the rule of law is being gutted, causing wealth and power to flow from us and the public interest to them and allied special interests.

Q1: Is it plausible to believe that many or most rank and file Trump and MAGA voters were and still are deceived and betrayed by MAGA demagoguery, lies, slanders, crackpottery and irrational emotional manipulation?  

Q2: Is it plausible that many Americans recognize corruption, inequality, and democratic fragility in the abstract while still underestimating how directly MAGA forces are eroding everyday rights, bargaining power, civil liberties, public wealth, and economic security?

Info sources: 

Can Educating Citizens about Democratic Backsliding Increase Engagement with Democracy? -- “Research shows that citizens in democracies often struggle to recognize when their own democracy is under threat, as leaders will try to justify undemocratic actions as necessary to protect democracy or reduce corruption ..... Our research offers a  first step in demonstrating that informing people about how democratic backsliding unfolds increases awareness of threats to democracy, but much more research is needed to understand how to translate that awareness into real-world action.” 

Why a growing number of Trump supporters are experiencing voter’s remorse -- Twenty percent of Trump supporters with postgraduate degrees expressed a reluctance to vote for Trump if given a second opportunity. ..... 31% of independents who voted for Trump in 2024 would not vote for him again in an election do-over

Threats to American Democracy Ahead of an Unprecedented Presidential Election -- More than three-fourths of Americans (77%) believe that the country is going in the wrong direction, compared with only 22% who believe the country is going in the right direction. ..... Majorities of white Christians — including white evangelical Protestants (77%), white mainline/non-evangelical Protestants (60%), and white Catholics (57%) — believe American culture and way of life has mostly changed for the worse.

The Effect of Increasing Wealth Inequality on U.S. Democracy at the State Level -- Wealth has become so unequally distributed at this point, and has increased so wildly throughout the last 25 years, that we are living in a totally different reality than even in the 1990s. I don’t think we realize that enough. At the very top, some people are simply above any consequences for their actions.

Americans Sound the Alarm over Corruption and Democratic Erosion -- Of all the possible threats to the United States, Americans rank government corruption and weakening democracy as the top two most critical threats to American interests, signaling anxieties over the health of the political system itself.

The role of racial bigotry and racism in MAGA politics and policy

Context

A NYT Magazine article (not paywalled), What the Crackup of the Heritage Foundation Says About the Post-Trump Right, raises the issue of how and why the GOP radicalized over time. The article reports that after Trump took office in Jan. 2025, Heritage was pushed aside. Heritage was the source of Project 2025 and the still-secret 180-Day Playbook that was given to a few MAGA elites on how to implement Project 2025. After Trump was sworn in, Heritage tried to get back to the center of power, but it sank into a vicious, still ongoing in-house conflict. The old guard of establishment experts were swamped and attacked by a surge of radical younger MAGA authoritarian kleptocrats. Those MAGA operatives are hell-bent on remaking Heritage into their own version of a Trump-style organization. Their tyranny and kleptocracy tactics are (1) being online all the time, (2) being ruthless in fighting culture wars, and (3) vehement in rejecting the dogmas of postwar politics grounded in evidence-based pro-democracy, pro-rule of law conservatism. This new generation of MAGA elites isn't evidence or reason based. It is almost completely wealth and power ideology-based.

That is the tyrannical and corrupt moral rot now taking control of most of America's non-left political universe. As far as these young MAGA crusaders go, things need to get a lot better to attain their vision of what they want Heritage and the GOP to be. These young MAGA elites are waging war on democracy, the rule of law and civil liberties. They want things to get a hell of a lot worse than they are now. MAGA's war isn't remotely close to being over. 

The rise of extremist MAGA authoritarianism & kleptocracy

That's a complicated story. Multiple factors were and still are in play. Factors include elite and social polarization, deeply aggressive and corrupting donor politics, a corrupted rule of law for MAGA-aligned elites and corporations, wage stagnation and inflation with economic pressures, corrupted media ecosystems, and uncompromising GOP institutional hardball. But also among those major factors was and still is immigration. Just beneath the surface intense anger and fear about legal and illegal immigration are powerful emotional drivers of racism and race bigotry.   

Racism and racial bigotry

MAGA demagoguery has played on and enormously amplified bigotry and racism among a minority of Americans, nearly all of whom are aligned with Trump and MAGA authoritarian politics and policy. Racism and racial bigotry are important components of MAGA's wealth and power movement, primarily for culture war extremists. Racial animus helps keeps fear and anger alive for a lot of the rank and file. Some of the elites have the same nasty feelings, mainly those in the Christian nationalist theocrat crowd. Absent religion, most oligarchs and dictators like Trump generally don't care much about immigration, with their focus on wealth and power, not culture war or race. When the autocrats and oligarchs do care about non-white immigration, it is used politically to emotionally mobilize voters, e.g., by fomenting irrational or baseless anger, fear, resentments, feelings of threat or victimhood, etc. 

Trump and allied elites repeatedly use immigration as a political weapon. There is solid evidence that Christian nationalism overlaps with white supremacy and anti-immigrant sentiment. There is a significant Christian theocratic cadre among MAGA elites. Clearly, the issue cannot be reduced to religion alone. Sometimes the elites use immigration and race for public influence to serve their own labor, status, and control goals. Racial culture war goals can thus be secondary.

What appeared to be a significant crystallizing stimulant to racial animus in the MAGA movement was the election and re-election of Obama. That set millions of Americans on edge. To make matters a lot worse, MAGA demagoguery ruthlessly exaggerated racial resentments and fears with and fabricated white threat and victimhood narratives. Empirical evidence from research and reporting consistently link MAGA politics to white grievance, racism, and hostility to immigrants. That is particularly true for the movement’s rank and file. 

The bottom line is that racial animus and Christian nationalist ideology are central to MAGA’s mass politics. Oligarchic and autocratic interests exploit those grievances to consolidate elite (and allied corporate) wealth and power. Thus, not every elite actor is motivated primarily by racism. Even without immigration politics would not vanish absent religion.

Regardless of when Trump exits from politics, the MAGA movement and its element of racial bigotry and racism are not going to go away.

Q: Is racism and racial bigotry a significant factor in the rise of MAGA authoritarianism, or is it trivial or completely non-existent?

Info sources:

Racial resentment fueled Jan. 6 rebellion and opposition to House probe, scholars find -- In their analysis, the resentment syncs with support for former President Donald Trump and a message at the core of his Make American Great Again (MAGA) movement: that white people are unfairly losing out to groups that are getting advantages that they haven’t earned and don’t deserve.

The Deepening ‘Racialization’ of American Politics - Obama was a lightning rod. Trump is a lightning strike 

Barack Obama legacy: Did he improve US race relations? -- America's racial problems have not melted away merely because Obama has spent eight years in the White House. Far from it. Indeed, the insurmountable problem for Obama was that he reached the mountaintop on day one of his presidency.

Race and Politics in the Age of Obama -- Race has rarely mattered more in US politics than it does now. The election of President Obama has laid bare the racial divisions that continue to fracture the United States. ..... Many hoped that the election of the first black president of the United States would signal the end to what may rightfully be called the continuing significance of race.

Defining Oligarchy: The Fusion of Wealth and Power in American Democracy -- [Oligarchy] represents a form of governance focused on preserving the political and economic influence of the wealthy by securing the approval of the rest of the population.

Is the U.S. becoming an oligarchy?

How Christian Nationalism Promotes White Supremacy: An Examination of Racial Stereotypes -- Findings suggest Christian nationalism promotes White supremacy more by promoting a higher view of White Americans (the “prototypical Americans”) than promoting a lower view of racial minorities.

MAGA movement - American political movement -- The MAGA movement, often referred to simply as MAGA, or Make America Great Again, was founded on the belief that the United States was once a “great” country but has lost this status owing to foreign influence, both within its borders (via immigration and multiculturalism) and without (via globalization, or the increased integration of multiple national economies). 

A systemic approach to the psychology of racial bias within individuals and society -- systemic factors operating across levels — from the interpersonal to the cultural — contribute to the production and reinforcement of racial biases in children and adults. We consider the effects of five systemic factors on racial biases in the USA: power and privilege disparities, cultural narratives and values, segregated communities, shared stereotypes and nonverbal messages.

Research States That Prejudice Comes From a Basic Human Need and Way of Thinking -- prejudice stems from a deeper psychological need, associated with a particular way of thinking. People who aren’t comfortable with ambiguity and want to make quick and firm decisions are also prone to making generalizations about others.

Update: Trump & global warming

Trump likes to pardon polluters who 

break environmental laws

Trump has repeatedly rejected climate change, calling it a hoax, con job, or a scam. While in office, his administrations have aggressively moved to weaken the EPA and neuter environmental laws and regulations. In essence, environmental laws and regulations are mostly no longer in effect. There is no major enforcement in practical terms. Law and regulation enforcement still exists on paper in a small number of cases. The number of civil lawsuits, inspections, penalties, and prosecutions has fallen sharply to a point that many experts describe enforcement efforts as effectively collapsed, not a functioning enforcement regime.

Targeting endangered species

Trump and MAGA elites also do not care about species going extinct. At present, the greatest threat to animals in the US and globally is habitat destruction. Grasslands are being converted to farms, forests are cut, and wetlands are being drained to build suburbs. That’s the main reason why hundreds of species have been listed under the Endangered Species Act. That law gives federal protection to species that are currently at risk of extinction or are about to be. Well, at least that is what federal law used to do.

A new Trump administration rule says that destroying habitat of federally threatened and endangered species is no longer explicitly illegal. That is the case even if it causes species extinctions. That reverses decades of regulatory precedent and practice. Experts note that Trump’s new rule directly contradicts the intent of the Endangered Species Act. Congress passed that law in 1973 with near-unanimous bipartisan support. Richard Nixon signed the bill into law.

The legality of Trump’s new rule is being challenged in court, but this is another example of the intense hostility that Trump and MAGA elites have for environmental protections and laws. 

Ignoring public opinion

MAGA’s constant hostility toward environmental law and protection is contrary to majority US public opinion. About 66% are worried some or a lot about climate change. But, authoritarians usually don’t care about public opinion. And kleptocrats don’t care about much of anything if it gets in the way of amassing wealth. Public opinion on this issue has little to no impact on Trump and pro-pollution MAGA politics and policy. To limit public disapproval, Trump is hiding as much information related to global warming as possible. 

Info sources: 

Trump wages battle against regulations, not climate change -- Trump's recent decision to pull out of the Paris climate deal was just his latest rapid-fire move to weaken or dismantle federal initiatives to reduce carbon emissions, which scientists say are heating the planet to levels that could have disastrous consequences.

Trump's EPA issues record low legal actions against polluters, watchdog group finds -- Last March, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced plans to target more than two dozen rules and policies, calling it the "most consequential day of deregulation in U.S. history".

Despite What This EPA Says, Enforcement under Trump Has Dropped -- In a press release, the agency claims the results show “the strongest enforcement and compliance results in years.” But three independent groups’ analyses of this report, including the group we represent, paint a much different picture: of a record plunge in the agency’s enforcement of the nation’s laws protecting human health and the environment. 

Civil Cases Against Major Polluters Plummet Under Trump -- And last week, the E.P.A. said it would rescind the landmark scientific finding that enables the government to regulate the greenhouse gases that are warming the planet.

It’s no longer illegal to destroy the one thing endangered species need most to survive -- Under the new rule, set to take effect in September, “harm” no longer explicitly includes actions that may accidentally or indirectly doom a wildlife population to extinction.

Trump administration rule weakens protections for threatened species --  The Trump administration finalized a major change on Friday to how threatened species ​are considered in agency actions, removing regulatory language aimed at ‌preventing damage to wildlife habitats and drawing a legal challenge.

Climate Change Concern Near Its High Point in U.S. -- In addition to the 44% now worrying a great deal about global warming or climate change, another 22% worry “a fair amount,” while 12% say they worry “only a little” and 23% do not worry at all.

As Trump Administration Purges Climate Data and Web Pages, Research Groups Scramble to Save Information -- The Trump administration has directed federal agency staff to remove climate references and scientific data from many web pages. Researchers are rushing to archive it.

Major climate change reports are removed from U.S. websites -- Legally mandated U.S. national climate assessments seem to have disappeared from the federal websites built to display them, making it harder for state and local governments and the public to learn what to expect in their backyards from a warming world.

Trump Pardons Violators of the Clean Air Act and a Major Donor -- The White House announced on Friday that President Trump had issued pardons to 11 men, most of whom had been convicted of crimes related to the Clean Air Act, a bedrock environmental law.