The 2016 cognitive bias codex

Cognitive science and bias research is fairly new. Most of the good stuff and fundamental observations arose from research since the 1960s. As the field continues to mature and knowledge becomes more nuanced, a more detailed, more accurate view of human cognition is coming into view.

The list (codex) is an attempt to convey the richness, and biological and social bases that human biases are grounded in. An excellent layman's overview of biases is described at the site Better Humans. The author of the overview, Buster Benson, argues that human biases are designed to deal with one or more of four basic problems: “Information overload, lack of meaning, the need to act fast, and how to know what needs to be remembered for later.”

Followers of B&B might recognize reference to some of those problems. The issue of lack of meaning in political rhetoric has been raised here several times. Misunderstanding is often grounded in subjective or personal meanings or definitions for core concepts that people use in politics. The other big problem is information overload and that is made worse by fake news, alt-facts, and other tactics of deceit. All of those are aspects of core constitutionally protected political free speech. For sophisticated spinners and liars, there is a whole menu of biases to play on to create false facts and realities using bogus logic or reasoning. The possibilities for deceit are sobering to say the least.

B&B orig: 4/14/17

Media Reporting and the Cognitive Biology of Terrorism

CONTEXT: The human mind evolved in such a way that it places greater importance and biological responses on real and perceived threats. The survival benefit is obvious. The human mind also evolved in such a way that it perceives reality through personal biasing lenses or mental processes. Important sources of reality biasing and simplifying include personal morals, political ideology, universal innate biases such as confirmation bias and framing effects or biases, innate and learned mental rules of thumb (heuristics) such as anchoring and availability heuristics, and our social and group identities, e.g., race, political party affiliation, gender, religion, etc. Human biasing lenses usually operate unconsciously (> 98% of the time?) and perceptions of reality and beliefs are therefore often mistaken as arising from conscious reason. The degree of reality and logic distortion resulting from normal biasing is high, but it appears to be necessary for the human mind to make sense or coherence of a complex world based on information that is usually far too limited for any rational basis for coherence.

FRAMING EFFECTS: After a terror attack resulting in a murder(s) and a claim of responsibility by a terrorist(s) and/or terror group, US mainstream media sources routinely report on the individual's or group's claim of responsibility. Characterizing an attack as a "claim of responsibility" frames the attack in such a way as to glamorize the attack in the minds of individuals susceptible to terrorism appeals. That is an serious, avoidable error that the mainstream media, and politicians, routinely make.

Instead, "claims of responsibility" for terror attacks should always be framed as something such as "an admission of guilt", "admission of murder", or a "confession to the slaughter of innocents." This mode of framing is emotional and it deprives terrorists and murderous publicity seekers of the glory that standard framing of an incident permits. As discussed previously, some (or all) cognitive scientists now argue that appeal to emotion is often or usually necessary for persuasion. Proper framing saps at least some terrorist recruiting power from an organization when societies universally think of these incidents in this negative frame.

Unconscionable, immoral, harmless error or no error (just free speech)?: Framing effects are innate (hard wired), unconscious and powerful. Ignoring this well-known biological reality in public discourse about terrorism constitutes error so unconscionable that one can reasonably argue it rises to the level of being immoral. It is beyond mere incompetence. Of course, even if one were motivated to do so, proper framing will be difficult and take time. Old habits are hard to break. Mental thought habits are no exception.

THE AVAILABILITY HEURISTIC: The availability heuristic is an unconscious, reality simplifying bias[1] that gives undue cognitive weight or importance to events or ideas most easily recalled, i.e., it's readily available to conscious thought. What is usually most easily recalled are exposure to events or ideas that are the most frequent and/or recent. Repeated recent exposures reinforce the bias.

The availability heuristic tends to lead people to believe the probability of an easily recalled event is more likely to happen again and to apply personally, even when the statistical odds are low.

Although some, e.g., president Trump, have criticized the mainstream media for insufficient coverage of at least some terrorist attacks, some empirical data suggests the opposite is true. Analysis of terrorism coverage by the New York Times shows far more coverage for terrorism events than for other events that cause far more deaths. For example, for January 2015 through August 2016, the New York Times, about half of homicide coverage in the first three pages was focused on terror attacks, despite the fact that over a 15-year period that included the 9/11 attacks, terrorist murders in America accounted for less than about 2% of all homicides.

In the scheme of things, the risk of death from a terrorist attack on US soil is minuscule. Despite low personal risk, a significant number Americans nonetheless grossly overestimate the risk and frequently change their behavior to avoid what is essentially a non-existent risk.[2] This grossly flawed thinking about risk spills over into and affects politics and policy. That directly reflects bias-induced, reality-disconnected error the availability heuristic unconsciously gives rise to.

If one accepts those facts and that logic, one can again argue that mainstream media coverage of terrorism and the flawed logic it induces in both American citizens and their elected leaders reflects incompetence by both the media and our leaders. Of course, that argument should be set in the context of a mainstream media that is under constant, severe economic pressures to simply survive. Survival means selling news content for profit.

For better or worse, humans are powerfully attracted to, and/or entertained by, violence, fear and anger. The media (and politician?) imperative that "if it bleeds, it leads" is firmly grounded in economic (and political?) reality. But even with that factor in mind, both the press and politicians usually do a dismal job of conveying the overall context including constantly repeating relative risk in reporting and in political discourse. If economics requires appeal to emotion and over reporting of attacks, one can argue that there is an even higher obligation to report relevant context so that the availability and/or other biases don't distort reality more than is reasonable to expect.

Questions: Are risks of an American civilian being killed anywhere on Earth high (more than 1% per year), medium ( 0.1 to 0.99% per year) or low (less than 0.1% per year)?* Do politicians have a moral obligation to take statistical reality into account when talking about terrorism, or is politics a matter of any means (usually preferably legal, but sometimes illegal is OK too) justification of the ends? Should the mainstream media reframe terrorist attacks to the extent is makes cognitive sense to do so?

* A: Low, less than 1 in 100,000/year (< 0.001%).

Information sources:
WNYC, On the Media, May 25, 2107 boradcast
Nemil Dalal, Priceonomics

Footnotes:
1. In essence, a reality simplifying bias is a way the human brain reduces the cognitive load needed to make coherence out of what a person sees, hears or otherwise experiences. Relative to the complexity of the real world, humans have astonishingly limited information processing bandwidth. Humans have no biological choice but to mentally simplify reality, even though errors (reality disconnects) frequently arise in the simplification process.

2. For example, after terrorist attacks in 2015, including an attack in Paris (130 murders) and in San Bernardino (14 murders), 53% of Americans changed their travel plans even though the risk of attack was nil.

B&B orig: 5/29/17

Cognitive Science: Conspiracy Theory Belief & Teleology Bias

A conspiracy theory

Teleology: the explanation of phenomena by the purpose they serve rather than by postulated causes; a reason or explanation for something in function of its end, purpose, or goal. For example, teleological, hands are made (by God) for grasping things, vs non-teleological, evolution caused hands to evolve to grasp things. A teleological explanation includes a final cause or end goal to explain how some system or thing came into being. Teleological thinking is as aspect of thinking related to belief in creationism. It is also known as the argument from design, which argues for the God's existence or, for an intelligent creator. Teleological thinking is a powerful cognitive bias for people who tend to apply this form of thinking to the real world and it has influenced religious thinking for millennia.

A team of European researchers recently published evidence that people who tend to accept conspiracy theories often employ teleological thinking as a basis for belief in conspiracies. It is important to note that the evidence amounts to a correlation, not an always-present cause and effect relationship. In other words, the evidence is that believing in final causes (teleological thinking) correlates with conspiratorial thinking.

In their article, the researchers write: “Teleological thinking — the attribution of purpose and a final cause to natural events and entities — has long been identified as a cognitive hindrance to the acceptance of evolution, yet its association to beliefs other than creationism has not been investigated. Here, we show that conspiracism — the proneness to explain socio-historical events in terms of secret and malevolent conspiracies — is also associated to a teleological bias. Across three correlational studies (N > 2000), we found robust evidence of a teleological link between conspiracism and creationism, which was partly independent from religion, politics, age, education, agency detection, analytical thinking and perception of randomness. As a resilient ‘default’ component of early cognition, teleological thinking is thus associated with creationist as well as conspiracist beliefs, which both entail the distant and hidden involvement of a purposeful and final cause to explain complex worldly events.”

In an article misleadingly entitled, ‘Scientists discover the reason people believe in conspiracy theories’, one mainstream media source discussed this research. Referring to the research, the article comments: “They found that conspiracy theorists are more likely to think ‘everything happens for a reason’ and things are ‘meant to be’, an approach they share with another group often considered extreme in their beliefs: creationists.

We find a previously unnoticed common thread between believing in creationism and believing in conspiracy theories,” said Dr Sebastian Dieguez of the University of Fribourg, one of the researchers behind the study.

‘Although very different at first glance, both these belief systems are associated with a single and powerful cognitive bias named teleological thinking, which entails the perception of final causes and overriding purpose in naturally occurring events and entities.’”

In other comments on their data, the researchers observe: “Although teleological thinking has long been banned from scientific reasoning, it persists in childhood cognition, as well as in adult intuitions and beliefs. . . . . the ‘everything happens for a reason’ or ‘it was meant to be’ intuition at the heart of teleological thinking not only remains an obstacle to the acceptance of evolutionary theory, but could also be a more general gateway to the acceptance of antiscientific views and conspiracy theories.”

Prior research had shown other cognitive characteristics of people who tend to believe in conspiracy theories. For example, individuals who are intolerant of uncertainty and seek cognitive closure share a trait called the need for cognitive closure. Evidence indicates that that trait seems foster, or at least correlate with, conspiracy beliefs about events that have no clear official explanation.

This research represents another step in our incremental evolution of understanding the biology of how people perceive and think about issues in politics and other aspects of life. The mental processes that underpin our perceptions and thoughts are often heavily influenced by our innate biology. In turn, that biology is shaped by both nature, and probably more importantly, nurture. Our culture, families, social identities, personal morals and other factors are all at play in shaping the world we perceive, whether the perception is accurate or not.

Most of this thinking and bias influence arises unconsciously. We are simply not aware of these things, unless we are told about them. And, even when told, many or most people cannot effectively internalize the knowledge. Mindsets are very hard to change. Is that what God intended or is it what arose naturally from evolution?

B&B orig: 8/24/18

An emotion self-control method

Given the increasing heat and reason-killing emotion that seemed to be occurring recently, a suggestion about a way to maintain self-control seems to be in order.

A person's emotional state affects unconscious and conscious reason in perceptions of reality, discourse and thinking. Emotion is now believed to be a necessary part of cognition, conscious reasoning and moral decision-making. Despite that, out-of-control emotion tends to degrade the quality of reasoning, leading to beliefs or decisions that are objectively less rational and/or detrimental to the individual. Reasonable control of emotion should be generally helpful to people in their everyday lives.

One scientist observes (pdf) that “the neuronal channels going up from the emotional centers of the brain to the more cognitive centers are denser and more robust than the cognitive centers going down to inhibit and control the emotional structures. Self-conscious efforts to avoid prejudice, fear, hatred, and depression are often rendered unsuccessful by this imbalance.”

In other words, emotional self-control often isn’t easy because our brains are wired that way. That’s just normal human biology.

Research psychologists recently published a paper showing that thinking or talking to yourself in the third person helps maintain emotional control in the face of events or information that provoke emotion and a potential loss of self-control. For politics, that means disagreement over political issues, most of which are highly emotionally charged.

Writing in Scientific Reports (vol. 7, Article 4519, published online July 3, 2017), lead scientist Jason Moser reported: “We hypothesized that it does under the premise that third-person self-talk leads people to think about the self similar to how they think about others, which provides them with the psychological distance needed to facilitate self-control. We tested this prediction by asking participants to reflect on feelings elicited by viewing aversive images (Study 1) and recalling negative autobiographical memories (Study 2) using either “I” or their name while measuring neural activity via ERPs (Study 1)[1] and fMRI (Study 2). . . . . Together, these results suggest that third-person self-talk may constitute a relatively effortless form of self-control. . . . . Specifically, using one’s own name to refer to the self during introspection, rather than the first-person pronoun ‘I’, increases peoples’ ability to control their thoughts, feelings, and behavior under stress.”

Commenting on the study, Government Executive writes: “‘Essentially, we think referring to yourself in the third person leads people to think about themselves more similar to how they think about others, and you can see evidence for this in the brain,’ says Jason Moser, associate professor of psychology at Michigan State University. ‘That helps people gain a tiny bit of psychological distance from their experiences, which can often be useful for regulating emotions.’ . . . . ‘What’s really exciting here,’ says [senior researcher Ethan] Kross, who directs the Emotion and Self-Control Lab, ‘is that the brain data from these two complimentary experiments suggest that third-person self-talk may constitute a relatively effortless form of emotion regulation. If this ends up being true—we won’t know until more research is done—there are lots of important implications these findings have for our basic understanding of how self-control works, and for how to help people control their emotions in daily life.’”

Footnote:
1. ERPS: event-related brain potentials, are electrical brain responses caused by sensory or cognitive stimuli such as photos or verbal information; ERPS are small but accurately measurable electrical brain responses that occurs over about a half second after a stimulus.

fMRI: functional magnetic resonance imaging, is a noninvasive method used to visualize parts of the human brain as it responds to various stimuli such as unpleasant photos, moral dilemmas or information that contradicts personal beliefs; fMRI visualizes areas of brain responses in near real time, with localized brain activity becoming visible a few seconds after a brain area has begun responding to what is seen or heard.

B&B orig: 10/21/17