The Real COVID-19 Death Toll

An analysis by the BBC of COVID-19 deaths suggests that the death count is significantly higher than officially reported. This is not very surprising. Many countries have responded with chaos, confusion and incompetence. Also, politics is relevant. Officials in some countries, e.g., the US, continue to pretend that everything is better than it really is, so the data may intentionally under count the deaths.

The analysis is based on excess deaths. Excess deaths are the number of deaths above officially reported deaths in view of the normally expected number of deaths if COVID-19 was not a factor. In the plot below, excess deaths are shown in blue, the dotted line is normally expected deaths and red is officially reported COVID-19 deaths.

For the US, the BBC analysis estimates there were about 26,968 excess or unreported COVID-19 deaths between Feb. 16 and May 2. Most of those deaths were probably directly caused by COVID-19. After May 2, the BBC data shows that reported deaths and actual deaths were basically the same. Presumably, that reflects more competence and/or honesty in death reporting in the US. Thus, one can reasonably add, say, about 23,000, to the official US death count to get a better feel for the real direct COVID-19 toll.

NO ANGST THREAD

CORONVIRUS cases surging again in some countries and in some states in this nation.

JOHN BOLTON'S book will be all the gossip over the next week or longer.

ONGOING protests and examples of police misconduct continue.

SUMMER, with Climate Change increase in heat waves and monster hurricanes likely.

THE Biden vs Trump debate will intensify.

ANGST will rule this nation, one way or another, whether the angst is climate related, Coronavirus related, election related, protest related, or White House related.


SOOOOOOOOOOO …

WHILE ALL THIS is fodder for lively debate, heated discussion, virulent arguments, and increased blood pressure, I have to ask a simple question:

WHAT DO YOU, yes YOU, do to get relief from it all, get away from it all, get some peace of mind from it all, take a holiday from it all, put it all out of your mind?

WHAT IS … YOUR Chill Pill?

All the President's Lies

Whopper: a gross or blatant lie

It is reasonable to believe that the president lies more than any US president. The Washington Post fact checkers checked the president's claim that president Obama “never even tried to fix this during their eight-year period”, in reference to police killing of blacks and other people. The president's claim is false. It is another of Trump's endless lies. WaPo writes:

“Just in recent months, while battling the coronavirus pandemic, Trump has falsely accused Obama of mishandling the swine flu epidemic; leaving “empty” the Strategic National Stockpile, a repository of emergency medicines and supplies; and providing “old tests” for a disease that had not even emerged yet. 

Now, faced with another crisis — mass protests against police brutality in the wake of the death of George Floyd — the president knocked Obama again. Before signing an executive order that seeks to provide incentives for police departments to increase training on the use of force, Trump asserted that Obama and his vice president “never even tried to fix this during their eight-year period.”

Obama faced his own uproar over police brutality in 2014, after the shooting death of an unarmed black man, Michael Brown, by a white police officer in Ferguson, Mo. Indeed, one of his critics at the time was none other than then-private citizen Trump.

Obama took a number of steps in response, in particular issuing an executive order that created a task force on “21st century policing.” The group was asked to hold public hearings and meet with officials and nongovernmental groups to develop recommendations.

A final 115-page report was delivered in May 2015 with dozens of recommendations, such as seeking more data on police-involved shootings, “whether fatal or nonfatal, as well as any in-custody death”; improved assessments of community attitudes toward police; and the removal of incentives on police practices such as a predetermined number of tickets, citations, arrests or summonses.

Indeed, elements of Trump’s executive order could have been lifted from the Obama-era report. Trump called on the Justice Department to encourage more training of police officers with “respect to encounters with individuals suffering from impaired mental health, homelessness, and addiction.” The Obama report had several recommendations along those lines, including making “Crisis Intervention Training (CIT) a part of both basic recruit and in-service officer training.” 

Of course, recommendations are only a start — just as signing an executive order does not mean policy is being implemented. The Obama task force issued an implementation guide for police departments and a year later reported that 15 police departments had agreed to an action plan to implement the recommendations. 

Obama took other steps as well. In May 2015, on the recommendation of a White House working group established that January, he banned federal transfers of certain types of military-style gear to local police departments, including tracked armored vehicles, bayonets, grenade launchers, ammunition of .50-caliber or higher, and some types of camouflage uniforms. 

Trump in 2017 rescinded that executive order.” (emphasis added)

WaPo asked the White House for the fact basis to assert that Obama did not even try to deal with excessive use of force by police. The White House responded with a pack of factually unsupported lies:

“This President is about action and this executive order will do more than any previous administration on police reform,” a senior administration official said. “This executive order has both law enforcement and victims’ families’ buy-in. This is meaningful action for victims and their families, but we won’t solve this problem by demonizing police. We must work together with them, and this executive order will help to resolve some of the issues of injustices we see across the country.”

The official added that “the Trump administration rolled back the practice of consent decrees because they were not effective.”

WaPo awarded the president's false claim four Pinocchios, which correspond to whoppers.

 

In another article WaPo wrote on June 1, 2020: “As of May 29, his 1,226th day in office, Trump had made 19,127 false or misleading claims, according to the Fact Checker’s database that analyzes, categorizes and tracks every suspect statement he has uttered. That’s almost 16 claims a day over the course of his presidency. So far this year, he’s averaging just over 22 claims a day, similar to the pace he set in 2019.”

Questions: Is it fair to call the president a chronic liar? If the president is a chronic liar, is that a fact, a truth, both or neither?

Do you hate religion?

Some people really (I’m gonna say) “hate” religion. I have been having a discussion with one of my online “anti-religion” atheist friends, for several days now.  He insists that religion (in particular, Christianity) is just a “pack of lies” (my words) and sees absolutely no good use for it; that it’s way more harmful than helpful to humans.

Maybe you also consider yourself an anti-religious atheist.  Heck, I myself am an “agnostic atheist” (don’t know, but don’t happen to believe in any god(s)).  For the record, I’m also (spiritually) a Pantheist (recognize/connect with what I refer to as a “God Process”).

OK, enough on our religious bios.  Here is the comprehensive question:

If no Jesus or God exists, does that really matter?  Isn’t their legacy that was left behind the thing of worth?  If those sentiments hold human value (don’t kill, steal, lie, honor each other, do unto others, etc.), what does it matter if there was no actual Jesus or God?  Aren’t the teachings, and the encouragement to follow them, the point?  Weren’t Jesus’ words much more important than the man (or believing he was God in the flesh)?

Please think about it more deeply, and then give your thought on this, my POV.

Thanks for posting and recommending. :)