The analysis is based on excess deaths. Excess deaths are the number of deaths above officially reported deaths in view of the normally expected number of deaths if COVID-19 was not a factor. In the plot below, excess deaths are shown in blue, the dotted line is normally expected deaths and red is officially reported COVID-19 deaths.
For the US, the BBC analysis estimates there were about 26,968 excess or unreported COVID-19 deaths between Feb. 16 and May 2. Most of those deaths were probably directly caused by COVID-19. After May 2, the BBC data shows that reported deaths and actual deaths were basically the same. Presumably, that reflects more competence and/or honesty in death reporting in the US. Thus, one can reasonably add, say, about 23,000, to the official US death count to get a better feel for the real direct COVID-19 toll.
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