A tad early in the day............ oh but what the heck..............

 PREDICTIONS

I know for the most part we are a pretty serious crowd here, nevertheless, whether your predictions are sagacious and wise, or whether they are satirical or irreverent, make your predictions.......

Will Trump show up or will he pull a fast one?

Will he be quiet or will he rage against Judge Juan Merchan?

Will there be a small crowd, a large crowd or .......... a violent crowd......... outside of the courthouse?

Will the judge issue a gag order? Will Trump obey it? 

Already the judge has ruled no cameras in the courtroom, doesn't that take away from our enjoyment of the event?

Will there be felony charges? 

Will MTG say something.................. smart? 

Will there be mass riots? Storming of government buildings? An armed insurrection?

Or will this be just another nothingburger while we await the more serious charges for other crimes?  

Can words cause harm?

An ABC News report makes the argument:

President Donald Trump has repeatedly distanced himself from acts of violence in communities across America, dismissing critics who point to his rhetoric as a potential source of inspiration or comfort for anyone acting on even long-held beliefs of bigotry and hate.

"I think my rhetoric brings people together," he said last year, four days after a 21-year-old allegedly posted an anti-immigrant screed online and then allegedly opened fire at a Walmart in El Paso, Texas, killing 22 and injuring dozens of others.

But a nationwide review conducted by ABC News has identified at least 54 criminal cases where Trump was invoked in direct connection with violent acts, threats of violence or allegations of assault.

After a Latino gas station attendant in Gainesville, Florida, was suddenly punched in the head by a white man, the victim could be heard on surveillance camera recounting the attacker’s own words: “He said, ‘This is for Trump.'" Charges were filed but the victim stopped pursuing them.

When police questioned a Washington state man about his threats to kill a local Syrian-born man, the suspect told police he wanted the victim to "get out of my country," adding, "That’s why I like Trump."

Reviewing police reports and court records, ABC News found that in at least 12 cases perpetrators hailed Trump in the midst or immediate aftermath of physically assaulting innocent victims. In another 18 cases, perpetrators cheered or defended Trump while taunting or threatening others. And in another 10 cases, Trump and his rhetoric were cited in court to explain a defendant's violent or threatening behavior.

When three Kansas men were on trial for plotting to bomb a largely-Muslim apartment complex in Garden City, Kansas, one of their lawyers told the jury that the men "were concerned about what now-President Trump had to say about the concept of Islamic terrorism." 

ABC News could not find a single criminal case filed in federal or state court where an act of violence or threat was made in the name of President Barack Obama or President George W. Bush.

This is why it seems reasonable to accord significant blame for bad acts on elites who foment bad behavior. Propaganda designed to provoke unwarranted emotions sometimes leads to bad behavior. The law rarely accords liability to the people who foment bad behavior. So from that perspective, all the blame is on the bad actors.  

The question is how much blame to assign to the propagandists. Ignoring the law, it feels reasonable to assign ~53% of the blame for bad politics-related behavior to elites and propagandists and the rest to the bad actor. 

Vote time: Who is the most dangerous?

Who is the most dangerous Republican candidate for president? 

1. Trump 

2. DeSantis 

3. someone else 

4. no Republican is dangerous

Vote early, and if you're a Republican, vote often!

Trump: 'I just want to find 11,780 votes'

Trump Indictment Helps Trump-- Not Democracy (Judge Luttig's Warning)

Former Judge,  Michael Luttig, is the legal thinker Pence quoted when he refused to interfere with the 2020 election. He also gave stirring testimony warning of the immanent demise of democracy in his 1/6 Committee testimony. The short video below is, imo, on target and a much needed antidote to the nonsensical hype in the media about the Trump indictment which has nothing to do with his political crimes-- the ones for which he should have been put on trial. The lesser, salacious crimes surrounding the Stormy Daniels hush money  will allow him to play the victim of a "witch hunt,"  and raise more money while evading any constraints on his ability to run. It also keeps his name in the news day in and day out-- just the way he likes it. Luttig states that,   "The perils for American democracy and the rule of law actually crested with Thursday's indictment in Manhattan, and the Republican party's continued denial of January 6th and its refusal to acknowledge that the former President lost the 2020 election. There's now no end in sight to these perils. In the months ahead, America's democracy and the rule of law-- hopefully not beyond the breaking point." Maybe Luttig is wrong, but I don't think so, and his perspective is an important and intelligent one coming from one of the few Republican lawyers with a moral compass. It is tragic that Biden's AG failed to prosecute Trump for attempting to overturn the 2020 election illegally. The evidence is there, but the courage is absent. As Luttig warns, there is "no end in sight" on the threat to democracy in the US.